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Serie A
Serie A Italy
12.04.2026 10:30 UTC Match prediction
12.04.2026 10:30 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Genoa - Sassuolo

Italy Football
Stadium Luidzhi Ferraris
Genoa
Genoa
2 : 1
Finished
Sassuolo
Sassuolo
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Genoa — 42%

1 · Genoa41.5%
X · draw28.0%
2 · Sassuolo30.5%

Model estimate: win Genoa 41.5%, draw 28.0%, win Sassuolo 30.5%. Model favourite — Genoa.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Genoa - Sassuolo April 12, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Genoa.

Strongest: Genoa - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.17 / X 3.22 / 2 3.55
  • 1X2 market: Genoa 43.8% / X 29.5% / Sassuolo 26.7%
  • Glicko: Genoa 41.5% / X 28.0% / Sassuolo 30.5%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 49.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.3%
1 43.8%
X 29.5%
2 26.7%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.0%
Over 2.5 44.9%
Under 2.5 55.1%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 43.3%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 12.04.2026 10:30 UTC
Stadium Luidzhi Ferraris (Genuya)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Genoa 42%
💹 Market Genoa 4379%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Genoa - Sassuolo

Genoa: Win 2.15 Genoa: Draw 3.30 Sassuolo Win: 3.50 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.10 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.73 Individualnyy total golov Genoa bolshe 1.5: 2.20 Individualnyy total golov Genoa menshe 1.5: 1.62 Individualnyy total golov Sassuolo bolshe 0.5: 1.…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 2:1
Events 20
Statistics 26
Lineups 45
min Event Player Team
5' 5' Yellow Card | Ruslan Malinovskyi Alessandro Circati Genoa
18' 18' Normal Goal | Ruslan Malinovskyi | assist/sub out: Tommaso Baldanzi Alessandro Circati Genoa
20' 20' Yellow Card | Morten Frendrup Luiza Kerstin Mari Ternstrem Genoa
32' 32' Yellow Card | Josh Doig Sassuolo
40' 40' Yellow Card | Sebastian Walukiewicz Sassuolo
45+2' 45+2' Red Card | Mikael Ellertsson Genoa
45+2' 45+2' Red Card | Domenico Berardi Sassuolo
55' 55' Substitution 3 | Lorenzo Colombo | assist/sub out: Caleb Ekuban Genoa
Metric Genoa Sassuolo SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.18 1.24 final
Zablokirovannye udary 3 2 final
Shots off target 4 7 final
Shots on target 7 6 final
Udary vsego 14 15 final
Fouls soversheno 9 14 final
Red cards 1 1 final
Zheltye kartochki 2 3 final
Genoa #3 J. Doig, #6 S. Walukiewicz, #10 D. Berardi, #18 N. Matić, #21 J. Idzes, #42 K. Thorstvedt, #45 A. Laurienté, #49 A. Murić, #80 T. Muharemovic, #90 I. Kone, #99 A. Pinamonti
Sassuolo #5 L. Ostigard, #8 T. Baldanzi, #9 Vítinha, #16 J. Bijlow, #17 R. Malinovskyi, #20 S. Sabelli, #22 J. Vasquez, #27 A. Marcandalli, #29 L. Colombo, #32 M. Frendrup, #77 M. Ellertsson
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Fadera Genoa Seyvy 0
A. Laurienté Genoa football.player.assists 0
A. Laurienté Genoa Dribling popytki 3
A. Laurienté Genoa Dribling uspeshno 2
A. Laurienté Genoa Edinoborstva vsego 1
A. Laurienté Genoa Edinoborstva vyigrano 8
A. Laurienté Genoa Fouls soversheno 1
A. Laurienté Genoa Fouls na igroke 1
A. Laurienté Genoa Seyvy 0
A. Laurienté Genoa football.player.minutes_played 90
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Genoa 44.7% 41.5% market and model agree
Draw 28.8% 28.0% draw risk
Sassuolo 26.5% 30.5%
xG - 1.27 : 1.05
Total 2.5 Over 49.7% - Under 50.3%
Model check - - Difference 0.04
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.04

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 41.5% / 28.0% / 30.5% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,481 / 1,519 Genoa / Sassuolo
RD 74 / 73 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.55 market consensus · no value · model 30.5%
X 3.22 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.17 market consensus · no value · model 41.5%
Double chance
X2 1.69 market consensus · no value · model 58.5%
12 1.33 market consensus · no value · model 72.0%
1X 1.29 market consensus · no value · model 69.5%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.71 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.30 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 3.40 market consensus · line only
2 +1 6.73 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.12 market consensus · weak value +5.4% · model 49.7%
Under 2.5 1.73 market consensus · no value · model 50.3%
Both teams to score
No 1.90 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.84 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair
2.15 46.5% 2.21 45.3% 2.25 44.4% 2.15 46.5% 2.22 45.1% 2.10 47.6%
X 2.98 33.6% 3.25 30.8% 3.38 29.6% 3.30 30.3% 3.15 31.8% 3.10 32.3%
3.70 27.0% 3.55 28.2% 3.63 27.6% 3.50 28.6% 3.55 28.2% 3.60 27.8%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 1.95 51.3% 1.95 51.3% 1.89 52.9% 1.91 52.4% 1.93 51.8% 1.91 52.4% 1.87 53.5% 1.87 53.5% 1.85 54.1%
yes 1.80 55.6% 1.86 53.8% 1.83 54.6% 1.91 52.4% 1.80 55.6% 1.83 54.6% 1.83 54.6% 1.83 54.6% 1.90 52.6%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
draw_away 1.67 59.9% 1.72 58.1% 1.70 58.8% 1.70 58.8% 1.67 59.9% 1.62 61.7%
home_away 1.33 75.2% 1.37 73.0% 1.33 75.2% 1.34 74.6% 1.29 77.5% 1.30 76.9%
home_draw 1.25 80.0% 1.33 75.2% 1.28 78.1% 1.32 75.8% 1.25 80.0% 1.30 76.9%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.08 92.6% — 1.02 98.0%
Over 0.75 — — 1.04 96.2%
Over 1.0 — — 1.06 94.3%
Over 1.25 — — 1.19 84.0%
Over 1.5 1.36 73.5% — 1.33 75.2%
Over 1.75 — — 1.42 70.4%
Over 2.25 — 1.91 52.4% —
Over 2.5 2.10 47.6% — —
Over 3.5 3.70 27.0% — —
Over 4.5 7.50 13.3% — —
Under 0.5 7.50 13.3% — —
Under 1.5 3.10 32.3% — —
Under 2.25 — 1.99 50.3% —
Under 2.5 1.70 58.8% — —
Under 3.5 1.25 80.0% — —
Under 4.5 1.08 92.6% — —
Match center
Genoa
Founded 1893
Sassuolo
Founded 1922
Match center
Genoa
MC M. Cornet Thigh Injury
JO J. Onana Injury
Sassuolo
FC Fali Candé Knee Injury
DB D. Boloca Muscle Injury
Genoa Founded: 1893
Sassuolo Founded: 1922
Match center
Genoa
L L W W L
06.04 16:00 UTC Serie A
Genoa 0:2 JuventusJuventus
20.03 19:45 UTC Serie A
Genoa 0:2 UdineseUdinese
15.03 11:30 UTC Serie A
Genoa 2:0 Hellas VeronaHellas Verona
08.03 17:00 UTC Serie A
Genoa 2:1 AS RomaAS Roma
28.02 19:45 UTC Serie A
Genoa 0:2 InterInter
2 Wins
0 Draws
3 Losses
0.8 Scored
1.4 Conceded
6 Points
Sassuolo
W D L L W
04.04 13:00 UTC Serie A
Sassuolo 2:1 CagliariCagliari
21.03 19:45 UTC Serie A
Sassuolo 1:1 JuventusJuventus
15.03 14:00 UTC Serie A
Sassuolo 0:1 BolognaBologna
09.03 19:45 UTC Serie A
Sassuolo 1:2 LazioLazio
01.03 14:00 UTC Serie A
Sassuolo 2:1 AtalantaAtalanta
2 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
1.2 Scored
1.2 Conceded
7 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyGenoa - Sassuolo

Genoa
1 matches total
Sassuolo
Genoa: 1 (100%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Sassuolo: 0 (0%)
Biggest win Genoa 2:1 (03.11 17:30 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 3 goals (2:1, 03.11 17:30 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

2 Goals scored 1
1 Goals conceded 2

Match history

03.11 17:30 UTC Serie A
Genoa
2:1
Sassuolo
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.