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Serie A
Serie A Italy
19.04.2026 13:00 UTC Match prediction Prediction
19.04.2026 13:00 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Hellas Verona - AC Milan

Italy Football
Stadium Markantonio Bentegodi
Hellas Verona
Hellas Verona
0 : 1
Finished
AC Milan
AC Milan
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 AC Milan — 55%

1 · Hellas Verona19.8%
X · draw25.4%
2 · AC Milan54.8%

Model estimate: win Hellas Verona 19.8%, draw 25.4%, win AC Milan 54.8%. Model favourite — AC Milan.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Hellas Verona - AC Milan April 19, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like AC Milan.

Strongest: AC Milan - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 6.45 / X 4.00 / 2 1.54
  • 1X2 market: Hellas Verona 14.8% / X 23.8% / AC Milan 61.5%
  • Glicko: Hellas Verona 19.8% / X 25.4% / AC Milan 54.8%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 24.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.4%
1 14.7%
X 23.7%
2 61.6%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.2%
Over 2.5 47.8%
Under 2.5 52.2%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 2

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 58.7%
Total Under 2.5
Score 0:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 19.04.2026 13:00 UTC
Stadium Markantonio Bentegodi (Verona)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model AC Milan 55%
💹 Market AC Milan 6147%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Hellas Verona - AC Milan

Hellas Verona: Win 7.00 Hellas Verona: Draw 4.10 AC Milan Win: 1.50 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.00 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.80 Individualnyy total golov Hellas Verona bolshe 0.5: 1.80 Individualnyy total golov Hellas Verona menshe 0.5: 1.91 Individualnyy tot…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 0:1
Events 0
Statistics 24
Lineups 45
Metric Hellas Verona AC Milan SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 0.71 0.85 final
Zablokirovannye udary 7 2 final
Shots off target 4 1 final
Shots on target 2 3 final
Udary vsego 13 6 final
Fouls soversheno 13 6 final
Zheltye kartochki 2 0 final
Offsides 0 1 final
Hellas Verona #10 R. Leao, #11 Christian Pulišić, #12 A. Rabiot, #14 L. Modric, #16 M. Maignan, #19 Youssouf Fofana, #23 F. Tomori, #24 Zachary Athekame, #31 S. Pavlovic, #33 D. Bartesaghi, #46 Matteo Gabbia
AC Milan #1 Lorenzo Montipò, #2 D. Oyegoke, #5 Andrias Edmundsson, #7 R. Belghali, #11 Jean Daniel Akpa-Akpro, #12 Domagoj Bradarić, #15 V. Nelsson, #24 Antoine Bernede, #63 R. Gagliardini
Player Team Metric SStats
Abdou Harroui AC Milan Seyvy 0
Andrias Edmundsson AC Milan football.player.assists 0
Andrias Edmundsson AC Milan Dribling popytki 3
Andrias Edmundsson AC Milan Edinoborstva vsego 1
Andrias Edmundsson AC Milan Edinoborstva vyigrano 6
Andrias Edmundsson AC Milan Seyvy 0
Andrias Edmundsson AC Milan football.player.minutes_played 90
Andrias Edmundsson AC Milan Klyuchevye pasy 53
Andrias Edmundsson AC Milan Reyting (staryy) 6.9
Andrias Edmundsson AC Milan Shots on target 1
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Hellas Verona 14.3% 19.8%
Draw 23.8% 25.4% draw risk
AC Milan 62.0% 54.8% market and model agree
xG - 0.83 : 1.57
Total 2.5 Over 24.0% - Under 76.0%
Model check - - Difference 0.07
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.07

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 19.8% / 25.4% / 54.8% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,361 / 1,639 Hellas Verona / AC Milan
RD 74 / 75 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.54 market consensus · no value · model 54.8%
X 4.00 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 6.45 market consensus · no value · model 19.8%
Double chance
X2 1.11 market consensus · no value · model 80.2%
12 1.23 market consensus · no value · model 74.6%
1X 2.46 market consensus · weak value +11.2% · model 45.2%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.11 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.01 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 1.51 market consensus · line only
2 +1 1.92 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.99 market consensus · no value · model 24.0%
Under 2.5 1.82 market consensus · value +38.4% · model 76.0%
Both teams to score
No 1.73 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.04 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
6.40 15.6% 5.50 18.2% 6.96 14.4% 5.75 17.4% 6.50 15.4% 6.80 14.7%
X 3.95 25.3% 3.95 25.3% 4.14 24.2% 3.75 26.7% 4.10 24.4% 4.10 24.4%
1.52 65.8% 1.65 60.6% 1.59 62.9% 1.53 65.4% 1.53 65.4% 1.57 63.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet
no 1.73 57.8% 1.70 58.8% 1.72 58.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.72 58.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.70 58.8% 1.70 58.8%
yes 2.05 48.8% 2.17 46.1% 2.03 49.3% 2.05 48.8% 2.00 50.0% 2.05 48.8% 2.00 50.0% 2.00 50.0% 2.03 49.3%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.10 90.9% 1.13 88.5% 1.13 88.5% 1.11 90.1% 1.14 87.7% 1.08 92.6%
home_away 1.20 83.3% 1.27 78.7% 1.25 80.0% 1.22 82.0% 1.24 80.7% 1.20 83.3%
home_draw 2.45 40.8% 2.53 39.5% 2.40 41.7% 2.38 42.0% 2.50 40.0% 2.50 40.0%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.06 94.3% — 1.00 100.0%
Over 0.75 — — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0 — — 1.03 97.1%
Over 1.25 — — 1.15 87.0%
Over 1.5 1.33 75.2% — 1.28 78.1%
Over 1.75 — — 1.36 73.5%
Over 2.25 — 1.91 52.4% —
Over 2.5 2.00 50.0% — —
Over 3.5 3.45 29.0% — —
Over 4.5 6.50 15.4% — —
Under 0.5 8.50 11.8% — —
Under 1.5 3.25 30.8% — —
Under 2.25 — 1.99 50.3% —
Under 2.5 1.80 55.6% — —
Under 3.5 1.30 76.9% — —
Under 4.5 1.10 90.9% — —
Match center
Hellas Verona
Founded 1903
AC Milan
Founded 1899
Match center
Hellas Verona
L L L L W
11.04 13:00 UTC Serie A
Hellas Verona 1:2 TorinoTorino
04.04 16:00 UTC Serie A
Hellas Verona 0:1 FiorentinaFiorentina
22.03 14:00 UTC Serie A
Hellas Verona 0:1 AtalantaAtalanta
15.03 11:30 UTC Serie A
Hellas Verona 0:2 GenoaGenoa
08.03 14:00 UTC Serie A
Hellas Verona 2:1 BolognaBologna
1 Wins
0 Draws
4 Losses
0.6 Scored
1.4 Conceded
3 Points
AC Milan
L L W L W
11.04 16:00 UTC Serie A
AC Milan 0:3 UdineseUdinese
06.04 18:45 UTC Serie A
AC Milan 0:1 NapoliNapoli
21.03 17:00 UTC Serie A
AC Milan 3:2 TorinoTorino
15.03 19:45 UTC Serie A
AC Milan 0:1 LazioLazio
08.03 19:45 UTC Serie A
AC Milan 1:0 InterInter
2 Wins
0 Draws
3 Losses
0.8 Scored
1.4 Conceded
6 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyHellas Verona - AC Milan

Hellas Verona
1 matches total
AC Milan
Hellas Verona: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
AC Milan: 1 (100%)
Biggest win AC Milan 0:3 (28.12 11:30 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 3 goals (0:3, 28.12 11:30 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 3
3 Goals conceded 0

Match history

28.12 11:30 UTC Serie A
Hellas Verona
0:3
AC Milan
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.