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Serie A
Serie A Italy
25.04.2026 18:45 UTC Match prediction
25.04.2026 18:45 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Hellas Verona - Lecce

Italy Football
Stadium Markantonio Bentegodi
Hellas Verona
Hellas Verona
0 : 0
Finished
Lecce
Lecce
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Hellas Verona — 38%

1 · Hellas Verona37.6%
X · draw30.2%
2 · Lecce32.2%

Model estimate: win Hellas Verona 37.6%, draw 30.2%, win Lecce 32.2%. Model favourite — Hellas Verona.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Hellas Verona - Lecce April 25, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Hellas Verona.

Strongest: Hellas Verona - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.70 / X 2.98 / 2 2.82
  • 1X2 market: Hellas Verona 34.9% / X 31.6% / Lecce 33.4%
  • Glicko: Hellas Verona 37.6% / X 30.2% / Lecce 32.2%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 35.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.1%
1 34.9%
X 31.6%
2 33.4%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.7%
Over 2.5 35.4%
Under 2.5 64.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: X

Main outcome X
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 30.6%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 25.04.2026 18:45 UTC
Stadium Markantonio Bentegodi (Verona)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Hellas Verona 38%
💹 Market Hellas Verona 3494%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Hellas Verona - Lecce

Hellas Verona: Win 2.75 Hellas Verona: Draw 3.00 Lecce Win: 2.80 Obschiy total golov bolshe 1.5: 1.57 Obschiy total golov menshe 1.5: 2.38 Individualnyy total golov Hellas Verona bolshe 0.5: 1.44 Individualnyy total golov Hellas Verona menshe 0.5: 2.62 Individualnyy total …

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 3 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 0:0
Events 17
Statistics 24
Lineups 48
min Event Player Team
12' 12' Yellow Card | L. Coulibaly AngeliG±o Lecce
51' 51' Substitution 3 | A. Bella-Kotchap | assist/sub out: N. Valentini Hellas Verona
52' 52' Yellow Card | J. Akpa Akpro Hellas Verona
60' 60' Substitution 4 | N. Stulic | assist/sub out: W. Cheddira Lecce
60' 60' Substitution 5 | O. Gandelman | assist/sub out: O. Ngom Lecce
62' 62' Substitution 4 | T. Suslov | assist/sub out: S. Lovric Hellas Verona
63' 63' Substitution 5 | J. Akpa Akpro | assist/sub out: A. Sarr Hellas Verona
67' 67' Yellow Card | Y. Ramadani Aleksandra Eala Lecce
Metric Hellas Verona Lecce SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 0.32 0.66 final
Zablokirovannye udary 2 5 final
Shots off target 1 5 final
Shots on target 3 2 final
Udary vsego 6 12 final
Fouls soversheno 15 19 final
Zheltye kartochki 2 5 final
Offsides 3 1 final
Hellas Verona #1 Lorenzo Montipò, #3 Martin Frese, #5 Andrias Edmundsson, #7 R. Belghali, #10 T. Suslov, #11 Jean Daniel Akpa-Akpro, #15 V. Nelsson, #18 Kieron Bowie, #24 Antoine Bernede, #37 Armel Bella-Kotchap, #63 R. Gagliardini
Lecce #5 J. Siebert, #9 N. Stulic, #16 O. Gandelman, #17 Danilo Veiga, #18 Gaby Jean, #19 Lameck Banda, #20 Y. Ramadani, #25 Antonino Gallo, #29 Lassana Coulibaly, #30 Wladimiro Falcone, #50 Santiago Pierotti
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Sala Lecce Seyvy 0
Antonino Gallo Lecce football.player.assists 0
Antonino Gallo Lecce Dribling popytki 5
Antonino Gallo Lecce Dribling uspeshno 1
Antonino Gallo Lecce Edinoborstva vyigrano 7
Antonino Gallo Lecce Fouls soversheno 1
Antonino Gallo Lecce Fouls na igroke 1
Antonino Gallo Lecce Seyvy 0
Antonino Gallo Lecce football.player.minutes_played 90
Antonino Gallo Lecce Tochnost pasov % 1
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Hellas Verona 35.0% 37.6% market and model agree
Draw 31.3% 30.2% draw risk
Lecce 33.7% 32.2%
xG - 1.09 : 0.98
Total 2.5 Over 35.2% - Under 64.8%
Model check - - Difference 0.03
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.03

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 37.6% / 30.2% / 32.2% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,360 / 1,426 Hellas Verona / Lecce
RD 74 / 74 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.82 market consensus · no value · model 32.2%
X 2.98 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.70 market consensus · no value · model 37.6%
Double chance
X2 1.44 market consensus · no value · model 62.4%
12 1.37 market consensus · no value · model 69.8%
1X 1.41 market consensus · no value · model 67.8%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.47 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.17 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.77 market consensus · line only
2 +1 5.40 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.65 market consensus · no value · model 35.2%
Under 2.5 1.45 market consensus · no value · model 64.8%
Both teams to score
No 1.66 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.14 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
2.66 37.6% 2.81 35.6% 2.63 38.0% 2.75 36.4% 2.72 36.8% 2.75 36.4%
X 2.96 33.8% 3.14 31.9% 2.90 34.5% 3.00 33.3% 3.00 33.3% 3.00 33.3%
2.80 35.7% 2.92 34.3% 2.75 36.4% 2.80 35.7% 2.85 35.1% 2.88 34.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 1.62 61.7% 1.64 61.0% 1.70 58.8% 1.67 59.9% 1.65 60.6% 1.67 59.9% 1.62 61.7% 1.63 61.4% 1.66 60.2%
yes 2.20 45.5% 2.14 46.7% 2.10 47.6% 2.10 47.6% 2.15 46.5% 2.15 46.5% 2.15 46.5% 2.14 46.7% 2.14 46.7%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.45 69.0% 1.49 67.1% 1.44 69.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.50 66.7% 1.40 71.4%
home_away 1.33 75.2% 1.41 70.9% 1.36 73.5% 1.40 71.4% 1.36 73.5% 1.33 75.2%
home_draw 1.40 71.4% 1.46 68.5% 1.40 71.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.45 69.0% 1.40 71.4%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.11 90.1% 1.08 92.6%
Over 0.75 — 1.11 90.1%
Over 1.0 — 1.15 87.0%
Over 1.25 — 1.35 74.1%
Over 1.5 1.57 63.7% 1.62 61.7%
Over 1.75 — 1.71 58.5%
Over 2.0 — 1.97 50.8%
Over 2.25 — 2.28 43.9%
Over 2.5 2.70 37.0% —
Over 3.5 5.50 18.2% —
Over 4.5 10.00 10.0% —
Under 0.5 6.25 16.0% —
Under 1.5 2.35 42.6% —
Under 2.5 1.44 69.4% —
Under 3.5 1.14 87.7% —
Under 4.5 1.04 96.2% —
Match center
Hellas Verona
Founded 1903
Lecce
Founded 1908
Match center
Hellas Verona
L L L L L
19.04 13:00 UTC Serie A
Hellas Verona 0:1 AC MilanAC Milan
11.04 13:00 UTC Serie A
Hellas Verona 1:2 TorinoTorino
04.04 16:00 UTC Serie A
Hellas Verona 0:1 FiorentinaFiorentina
22.03 14:00 UTC Serie A
Hellas Verona 0:1 AtalantaAtalanta
15.03 11:30 UTC Serie A
Hellas Verona 0:2 GenoaGenoa
0 Wins
0 Draws
5 Losses
0.2 Scored
1.4 Conceded
0 Points
Lecce
D L L L L
20.04 18:45 UTC Serie A
Lecce 1:1 FiorentinaFiorentina
12.04 16:00 UTC Serie A
Lecce 0:2 BolognaBologna
06.04 13:00 UTC Serie A
Lecce 0:3 AtalantaAtalanta
22.03 17:00 UTC Serie A
Lecce 0:1 AS RomaAS Roma
14.03 17:00 UTC Serie A
Lecce 1:2 NapoliNapoli
0 Wins
1 Draws
4 Losses
0.4 Scored
1.8 Conceded
1 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyHellas Verona - Lecce

Hellas Verona
3 matches total
Lecce
Hellas Verona: 0 (0%)
Draws:2 (66.7%)
Lecce: 1 (33.3%)
Biggest win Lecce 0:1 (29.10 17:30 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 2 goals (1:1, 11.05 13:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw 1:1 (11.05 13:00 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 2
2 Goals conceded 1

Match history

08.11 14:00 UTC Serie A
Hellas Verona
0:0
Lecce
11.05 13:00 UTC Serie A
Hellas Verona
1:1
Lecce
29.10 17:30 UTC Serie A
Hellas Verona
0:1
Lecce
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.