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Serie A Italy

28.02.2026 17:00 UTC Match prediction

28.02.2026 17:00 UTC

Finished

Serie A

Hellas Verona - Napoli

Italy Football

Hellas Verona

1 : 2

Finished

Napoli

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Hellas Verona - Napoli February 28, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Napoli.

Line favourite market consensus: Napoli. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 6.15 / X 3.51 / 2 1.66
1X2 market: Hellas Verona 15.5% / X 27.1% / Napoli 57.4%
Total 2.5: over probability 62.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.0%

1 15.5%

X 27.1%

2 57.4%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.4%

Over 2.5 38.0%

Under 2.5 62.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 28.02.2026 17:00 UTC

Match center

Hellas Verona - Napoli

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 1.66 market consensus · line only

X 3.52 market consensus · line only

1 6.17 market consensus · line only

Double chance

X2 1.13 market consensus · line only

12 1.29 market consensus · line only

1X 2.26 market consensus · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.12 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.01 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 1.64 market consensus · line only

2 +1 2.23 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 2.50 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 1.53 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.54 market consensus · line only

Yes 2.40 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	6.33 15.8%
X	3.58 27.9%
	1.68 59.5%

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	5.80 17.2%	6.50 15.4%	6.30 15.9%	5.50 18.2%	6.00 16.7%	6.30 15.9%
X	3.40 29.4%	3.55 28.2%	3.67 27.3%	3.40 29.4%	3.50 28.6%	3.55 28.2%
	1.66 60.2%	1.65 60.6%	1.71 58.5%	1.65 60.6%	1.67 59.9%	1.72 58.1%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	Marathonbet	Pinnacle
no	1.55 64.5%	1.56 64.1%	1.53 65.4%	1.53 65.4%	1.50 66.7%	1.55 64.5%	1.53 65.4%	1.52 65.8%	1.57 63.7%
yes	2.35 42.6%	2.45 40.8%	2.36 42.4%	2.40 41.7%	2.50 40.0%	2.35 42.6%	2.38 42.0%	2.36 42.4%	2.52 39.7%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.12 89.3%	1.15 87.0%	1.13 88.5%	1.11 90.1%	1.15 87.0%	1.08 92.6%
home_away	1.25 80.0%	1.33 75.2%	1.29 77.5%	1.28 78.1%	1.29 77.5%	1.25 80.0%
home_draw	2.15 46.5%	2.26 44.3%	2.25 44.4%	2.25 44.4%	2.22 45.1%	2.25 44.4%