Serie A Italy

05.04.2026 18:45 UTC Match prediction

05.04.2026 18:45 UTC

Finished

Serie A

Inter - AS Roma

Italy Futbol

Stadium Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Capacity 80 018

Inter

5 : 2

Finished

AS Roma

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Inter — 56%

1 · Inter ✓ Прогноз56.1%

X · draw24.1%

2 · AS Roma19.8%

Model estimate: win Inter 56.1%, draw 24.1%, win AS Roma 19.8%. Model favourite — Inter.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Inter - AS Roma 5 апреля 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Inter.

Strongest: Inter - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.63 / X 3.92 / 2 5.45
1X2 market: Inter 58.2% / X 24.3% / AS Roma 17.5%
Glicko: Inter 56.1% / X 24.1% / AS Roma 19.8%
Total 2.5: over probability 40.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.2%

1 ✓ Прогноз 58.3%

X 24.2%

2 17.4%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.7%

Over 2.5 50.0%

Under 2.5 50.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

Лидер исходов AI: П1

Main outcome П1

Agreement 4/4

Confidence 57.6%

Total ТМ 2.5

Score 1:0

Модели дают единый сигнал. Такие матчи мы помечаем как более сильные.

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Match center

Start 05.04.2026 18:45 UTC

Stadium Stadio Giuseppe Meazza (Milan)

Capacity 80,018

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🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Inter 56%

💹 Market Inter 5822%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Inter - AS Roma

Inter: Победа 1.60 Inter: Ничья 3.90 AS Roma Победа: 5.75 Общий тотал голов больше 2.5: 1.91 Общий тотал голов меньше 2.5: 1.91 Индивидуальный тотал голов Inter больше 1.5: 1.73 Индивидуальный тотал голов Inter меньше 1.5: 2.00 Индивидуальный тотал голов AS Roma больше 0.5: 1.62…

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 3 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 5:2

Events 17

Statistics 24

Lineups 44

min Event Player Team

1' 1' Normal Goal | Lautaro Martínez | assist/sub out: M. Thuram Inter

40' 40' Normal Goal | G. Mancini | assist/sub out: D. Rensch AS Roma

45' 45' Normal Goal | H. Çalhanoğlu | assist/sub out: P. Zieliński B. Pierret Inter

46' 46' Substitution 1 | G. Mancini | assist/sub out: D. Ghilardi AS Roma

52' 52' Normal Goal | Lautaro Martínez | assist/sub out: M. Thuram Inter

55' 55' Normal Goal | M. Thuram | assist/sub out: H. Çalhanoğlu A. Flynn Inter

58' 58' Substitution 5 | A. Bastoni | assist/sub out: M. Darmian Inter

58' 58' Substitution 6 | Lautaro Martínez | assist/sub out: A. Bonny Inter

Metric Inter AS Roma SStats

Ожидаемые голы (xG) 1.51 0.96 final

Заблокированные удары 4 1 final

Удары мимо 4 5 final

Удары в створ 9 3 final

Удары всего 17 9 final

Фолы совершено 11 10 final

Желтые карточки 0 1 final

Офсайды 1 1 final

Inter #2 Devyne Rensch, #4 B. Cristante, #5 E. Ndicka, #14 Donyell Malen, #18 Matías Soulé, #19 Zeki Çelik, #22 Mario Hermoso, #23 G. Mancini, #61 N. Pisilli, #99 Mile Svilar

AS Roma #1 Yann Sommer, #2 Denzel Dumfries, #7 P. Zielinski, #9 M. Thuram, #10 L. Martinez, #15 Francesco Acerbi, #20 Hakan Çalhanoğlu, #23 N. Barella, #25 M. Akanji, #32 F. Dimarco, #95 A. Bastoni

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Bastoni AS Roma football.player.assists 0

A. Bastoni AS Roma Дриблинг попытки 6

A. Bastoni AS Roma Единоборства выиграно 11

A. Bastoni AS Roma Сейвы 0

A. Bastoni AS Roma football.player.minutes_played 58

A. Bastoni AS Roma Ключевые пасы 37

A. Bastoni AS Roma Пасы всего 1

A. Bastoni AS Roma Рейтинг (старый) 6.2

A. Bastoni AS Roma Удары в створ 1

A. Bastoni AS Roma Блоки 5

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Inter 58.7% 56.1% market and model agree

Draw 24.1% 24.1% draw risk

AS Roma 17.2% 19.8%

xG - 1.69 : 0.89

Total 2.5 Over 40.3% - Under 59.7%

Model check - - Difference 0.03

Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.03

Glicko-2 - рейтинговая модель силы: сравнивает линию, историю и стабильность, но не дает гарантий.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 56.1% / 24.1% / 19.8% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,730 / 1,616 Inter / AS Roma

RD 79 / 74 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: value не найден

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 5.45 market consensus · no value · model 19.8%

X 3.92 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.63 market consensus · no value · model 56.1%

Double chance

X2 2.27 market consensus · no value · model 43.9%

12 1.24 market consensus · no value · model 75.9%

1X 1.16 market consensus · no value · model 80.2%

Handicap

2 -0.5 2.30 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.76 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 5.00 market consensus · line only

1 -0.5 1.61 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.91 market consensus · no value · model 40.3%

Under 2.5 1.91 market consensus · value +14.0% · model 59.7%

Both teams to score

No 1.85 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.89 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
П1	1.64 61.0%	1.62 61.7%	1.66 60.2%	1.62 61.7%	1.60 62.5%	1.70 58.8%
Х	3.80 26.3%	4.00 25.0%	4.14 24.2%	3.70 27.0%	4.00 25.0%	3.95 25.3%
П2	5.10 19.6%	5.70 17.5%	5.79 17.3%	5.00 20.0%	5.75 17.4%	5.40 18.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet
no	1.90 52.6%	1.88 53.2%	1.79 55.9%	1.85 54.1%	1.80 55.6%	1.88 53.2%	1.87 53.5%	1.83 54.6%	1.86 53.8%
yes	1.85 54.1%	1.93 51.8%	1.94 51.6%	1.85 54.1%	1.95 51.3%	1.85 54.1%	1.87 53.5%	1.87 53.5%	1.94 51.6%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	2.15 46.5%	2.36 42.4%	2.20 45.5%	2.25 44.4%	2.25 44.4%	2.25 44.4%
home_away	1.22 82.0%	1.28 78.1%	1.25 80.0%	1.22 82.0%	1.25 80.0%	1.20 83.3%
home_draw	1.15 87.0%	1.17 85.5%	1.17 85.5%	1.14 87.7%	1.19 84.0%	1.11 90.1%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet
ТБ 0.5	1.05 95.2%	—	1.01 99.0%
ТБ 0.75	—	—	1.02 98.0%
ТБ 1.0	—	—	1.03 97.1%
ТБ 1.25	—	—	1.15 87.0%
ТБ 1.5	1.28 78.1%	—	1.27 78.7%
ТБ 1.75	—	—	1.33 75.2%
ТБ 2.5	1.85 54.1%	1.93 51.8%	—
ТБ 3.5	3.25 30.8%	—	—
ТБ 4.5	6.25 16.0%	—	—
ТМ 0.5	9.50 10.5%	—	—
ТМ 1.5	3.55 28.2%	—	—
ТМ 2.5	1.90 52.6%	1.97 50.8%	—
ТМ 3.5	1.33 75.2%	—	—
ТМ 4.5	1.11 90.1%	—	—

Match center

Inter

Founded 1908

AS Roma

Founded 1927

Match center

Inter

CA Carlos Augusto Yellow Cards

YB Y. Bisseck Thigh Injury

AS Roma

PD P. Dybala Knee Injury

AD A. Dovbyk Groin Injury

Inter Founded: 1908

AS Roma Founded: 1927

Match center

Inter

D D L W W

22.03 19:45 UTC Serie A

Inter 1:1 Fiorentina

14.03 14:00 UTC Serie A

Inter 1:1 Atalanta

08.03 19:45 UTC Serie A

Inter 0:1 AC Milan

28.02 19:45 UTC Serie A

Inter 2:0 Genoa

21.02 17:00 UTC Serie A

Inter 2:0 Lecce

2 Wins

2 Draws

1 Losses

1.2 Scored

0.6 Conceded

8 Points

AS Roma

W L L D W

22.03 17:00 UTC Serie A

AS Roma 1:0 Lecce

15.03 17:00 UTC Serie A

AS Roma 1:2 Como

08.03 17:00 UTC Serie A

AS Roma 1:2 Genoa

01.03 19:45 UTC Serie A

AS Roma 3:3 Juventus

22.02 19:45 UTC Serie A

AS Roma 3:0 Cremonese

2 Wins

1 Draws

2 Losses

1.8 Scored

1.4 Conceded

7 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyInter - AS Roma

Inter

3 matches total

AS Roma

Inter: 2 (66.7%)

Draws:0 (0%)

AS Roma: 1 (33.3%)

Biggest win Inter 1:0 (18.10 18:45 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 1 goals (1:0, 18.10 18:45 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

2 Goals scored 1

1 Goals conceded 2

Match history

18.10 18:45 UTC

Serie A

Inter

1:0

AS Roma

27.04 13:00 UTC

Serie A

Inter

0:1

AS Roma

20.10 18:45 UTC

Serie A

Inter

1:0

AS Roma

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.