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Serie A Italy

17.04.2026 18:45 UTC Match prediction Prediction

17.04.2026 18:45 UTC

Finished

Serie A

Inter - Cagliari

Italy Football

Stadium Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Capacity 80 018

Inter

3 : 0

Finished

Cagliari

🎯 PropickAI prediction

High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Inter — 72%

1 · Inter ✓ Pick72.0%

market77%

X · draw17.8%

market15%

2 · Cagliari10.3%

market8%

Model estimate: win Inter 72.0%, draw 17.8%, win Cagliari 10.3%. Model favourite — Inter.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Inter - Cagliari April 17, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Inter.

Strongest: Inter - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.23 / X 6.29 / 2 12.57
1X2 market: Inter 77.2% / X 15.2% / Cagliari 7.6%
Glicko: Inter 72.0% / X 17.8% / Cagliari 10.3%
Total 2.5: over probability 36.1%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.2%

1 ✓ Pick 77.3%

X 15.1%

2 7.6%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.1%

Over 2.5 60.2%

Under 2.5 39.8%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome

Agreement 4/4

Confidence 75.3%

Total Under 2.5

Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center

Start 17.04.2026 18:45 UTC

Stadium Stadio Giuseppe Meazza (Milan)

Capacity 80,018

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🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Inter 72%

💹 Market Inter 7721%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Inter - Cagliari

Inter: Win 1.22 Inter: Draw 6.50 Cagliari Win: 13.00 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.57 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.38 Individualnyy total golov Inter bolshe 2.5: 2.00 Individualnyy total golov Inter menshe 2.5: 1.73 Individualnyy total golov Cagliari bolshe 0.5: 2…

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 3:0

Events 15

Statistics 24

Lineups 42

min Event Player Team

23' 23' Yellow Card | S. Esposito Cagliari

25' 25' Yellow Card | G. Borrelli Cagliari

52' 52' Normal Goal | M. Thuram A. Flynn Inter

56' 56' Normal Goal | N. Barella Inter

57' 57' Substitution 5 | G. Gaetano | assist/sub out: A. Deiola Isi Palazón Cagliari

57' 57' Substitution 4 | G. Borrelli | assist/sub out: P. Mendy Cagliari

76' 76' Substitution 4 | M. Thuram | assist/sub out: A. Bonny A. Flynn Inter

76' 76' Substitution 7 | I. Sulemana | assist/sub out: M. Folorunsho Cagliari

Metric Inter Cagliari SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 2.23 0.41 final

Zablokirovannye udary 5 5 final

Shots off target 8 4 final

Shots on target 5 1 final

Udary vsego 18 10 final

Fouls soversheno 17 6 final

Zheltye kartochki 0 2 final

Offsides 1 2 final

Inter #1 E. Caprile, #2 M. Palestra, #8 M. Adopo, #10 G. Gaetano, #25 I. Sulemana, #26 Y. Mina, #29 G. Borrelli, #32 Zé Pedro, #33 A. Obert, #94 S. Esposito

Cagliari #2 Denzel Dumfries, #6 S. de Vrij, #9 M. Thuram, #13 Josep Martínez, #20 Hakan Çalhanoğlu, #22 Henrikh Mkhitaryan, #23 N. Barella, #25 M. Akanji, #30 Carlos Augusto, #32 F. Dimarco, #94 F. Esposito

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Bonny Cagliari football.player.assists 0

A. Bonny Cagliari Dribling popytki 3

A. Bonny Cagliari Dribling uspeshno 3

A. Bonny Cagliari Edinoborstva vyigrano 5

A. Bonny Cagliari Fouls na igroke 3

A. Bonny Cagliari Seyvy 0

A. Bonny Cagliari football.player.minutes_played 14

A. Bonny Cagliari Tochnost pasov % 1

A. Bonny Cagliari Klyuchevye pasy 4

A. Bonny Cagliari Reyting (staryy) 6.9

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Inter 78.1% 72.0% market and model agree

Draw 14.8% 17.8% draw risk

Cagliari 7.1% 10.3%

xG - 2.20 : 0.69

Total 2.5 Over 36.1% - Under 63.9%

Model check - - Difference 0.06

Market vs Glicko gap: 0.06

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 72.0% / 17.8% / 10.3% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,747 / 1,450 Inter / Cagliari

RD 77 / 72 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

X 6.29 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.23 market consensus · no value · model 72.0%

Double chance

X2 4.06 market consensus · no value · model 28.1%

12 1.12 market consensus · no value · model 82.2%

1X 1.04 market consensus · no value · model 89.7%

Handicap

2 -0.5 3.90 market consensus · line only

2 -1 3.21 market consensus · line only

1 -0.5 1.22 market consensus · line only

1 -1 1.33 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.58 market consensus · no value · model 36.1%

Under 2.5 2.39 market consensus · weak value +52.6% · model 63.9%

Both teams to score

No 1.67 market consensus · line only

Yes 2.14 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	1.24 80.7%	1.20 83.3%	1.27 78.7%	1.22 82.0%	1.22 82.0%	1.27 78.7%
X	5.80 17.2%	6.70 14.9%	6.55 15.3%	6.00 16.7%	6.50 15.4%	6.20 16.1%
	10.50 9.5%	13.50 7.4%	13.30 7.5%	11.00 9.1%	13.00 7.7%	13.50 7.4%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet
no	1.70 58.8%	1.62 61.7%	1.63 61.4%	1.67 59.9%	1.67 59.9%	1.70 58.8%	1.67 59.9%	1.67 59.9%	1.69 59.2%
yes	2.10 47.6%	2.32 43.1%	2.17 46.1%	2.15 46.5%	2.10 47.6%	2.07 48.3%	2.15 46.5%	2.05 48.8%	2.17 46.1%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	3.95 25.3%	4.20 23.8%	4.00 25.0%	3.75 26.7%	4.05 24.7%	4.20 23.8%
home_away	1.12 89.3%	1.14 87.7%	1.13 88.5%	1.12 89.3%	1.13 88.5%	1.10 90.9%
home_draw	1.04 96.2%	1.05 95.2%	1.05 95.2%	1.05 95.2%	1.06 94.3%	1.03 97.1%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	1.04 96.2%	—	1.02 98.0%
Over 1.0	—	—	1.03 97.1%
Over 1.25	—	—	1.06 94.3%
Over 1.5	1.18 84.8%	—	1.15 87.0%
Over 2.5	1.57 63.7%	—	—
Over 3.0	—	1.96 51.0%	—
Over 3.5	2.40 41.7%	—	—
Over 4.5	4.20 23.8%	—	—
Over 5.5	7.50 13.3%	—	—
Under 0.5	10.00 10.0%	—	—
Under 1.5	4.75 21.1%	—	—
Under 2.5	2.35 42.6%	—	—
Under 3.0	—	1.94 51.6%	—
Under 3.5	1.55 64.5%	—	—
Under 4.5	1.22 82.0%	—	—
Under 5.5	1.08 92.6%	—	—

Match center

Inter

Founded 1908

Cagliari

Founded 1920

Match center

Inter

W W D D L

12.04 18:45 UTC Serie A

Inter 4:3 Como

05.04 18:45 UTC Serie A

Inter 5:2 AS Roma

22.03 19:45 UTC Serie A

Inter 1:1 Fiorentina

14.03 14:00 UTC Serie A

Inter 1:1 Atalanta

08.03 19:45 UTC Serie A

Inter 0:1 AC Milan

2 Wins

2 Draws

1 Losses

2.2 Scored

1.6 Conceded

8 Points

Cagliari

W L L L L

11.04 13:00 UTC Serie A

Cagliari 1:0 Cremonese

04.04 13:00 UTC Serie A

Cagliari 1:2 Sassuolo

20.03 17:30 UTC Serie A

Cagliari 0:1 Napoli

15.03 14:00 UTC Serie A

Cagliari 1:3 Pisa

07.03 14:00 UTC Serie A

Cagliari 1:2 Como

1 Wins

0 Draws

4 Losses

0.8 Scored

1.6 Conceded

3 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyInter - Cagliari

Inter

2 matches total

Cagliari

Inter: 2 (100%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Cagliari: 0 (0%)

Biggest win Inter 2:0 (27.09 18:45 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 4 goals (3:1, 12.04 16:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

5 Goals scored 1

1 Goals conceded 5

Match history

27.09 18:45 UTC

Serie A

Inter

2:0

Cagliari

12.04 16:00 UTC

Serie A

Inter

3:1

Cagliari

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.