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Serie A
Serie A Italy
15.03.2026 19:45 UTC Match prediction
15.03.2026 19:45 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Lazio - AC Milan

Italy Football
Lazio
Lazio
1 : 0
Finished
AC Milan
AC Milan

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Lazio - AC Milan March 15, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like AC Milan.

Line favourite market consensus: AC Milan. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 4.37 / X 3.43 / 2 1.87
  • 1X2 market: Lazio 21.7% / X 27.6% / AC Milan 50.7%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 54.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.5%
1 21.7%
X 27.6%
2 50.7%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.8%
Over 2.5 45.5%
Under 2.5 54.5%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 15.03.2026 19:45 UTC
Match center

Lazio - AC Milan

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.87 market consensus · line only
X 3.44 market consensus · line only
1 4.39 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.22 market consensus · line only
12 1.31 market consensus · line only
1X 1.94 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.23 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.01 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 1.87 market consensus · line only
2 +1 2.65 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.10 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.75 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.84 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.91 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
4.62 21.7%
X 3.54 28.3%
1.88 53.2%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
4.30 23.3% 4.15 24.1% 4.62 21.7% 4.20 23.8% 4.20 23.8% 4.45 22.5%
X 3.40 29.4% 3.50 28.6% 3.61 27.7% 3.30 30.3% 3.50 28.6% 3.45 29.0%
1.84 54.4% 1.88 53.2% 1.92 52.1% 1.85 54.1% 1.85 54.1% 1.87 53.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 1.83 54.6% 1.89 52.9% 1.83 54.6% 1.85 54.1% 1.80 55.6% 1.85 54.1% 1.83 54.6% 1.81 55.3% 1.91 52.4%
yes 1.91 52.4% 1.92 52.1% 1.89 52.9% 1.85 54.1% 1.95 51.3% 1.90 52.6% 1.91 52.4% 1.89 52.9% 1.96 51.0%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.20 83.3% 1.24 80.7% 1.22 82.0% 1.22 82.0% 1.23 81.3% 1.17 85.5%
home_away 1.25 80.0% 1.34 74.6% 1.33 75.2% 1.28 78.1% 1.29 77.5% 1.25 80.0%
home_draw 1.91 52.4% 1.98 50.5% 1.85 54.1% 1.91 52.4% 1.98 50.5% 1.91 52.4%
Match center
Lazio
W L D L D
09.03 19:45 UTC Serie A
Lazio 2:1 SassuoloSassuolo
01.03 17:00 UTC Serie A
Lazio 0:2 TorinoTorino
21.02 19:45 UTC Serie A
Lazio 0:0 CagliariCagliari
14.02 17:00 UTC Serie A
Lazio 0:2 AtalantaAtalanta
08.02 19:45 UTC Serie A
Lazio 2:2 JuventusJuventus
1 Wins
2 Draws
2 Losses
0.8 Scored
1.4 Conceded
5 Points
AC Milan
W W L D W
08.03 19:45 UTC Serie A
AC Milan 1:0 InterInter
01.03 11:30 UTC Serie A
AC Milan 2:0 CremoneseCremonese
22.02 17:00 UTC Serie A
AC Milan 0:1 ParmaParma
18.02 19:45 UTC Serie A
AC Milan 1:1 ComoComo
13.02 19:45 UTC Serie A
AC Milan 2:1 PisaPisa
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
1.2 Scored
0.6 Conceded
10 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyLazio - AC Milan

Lazio
1 matches total
AC Milan
Lazio: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
AC Milan: 1 (100%)
Biggest win AC Milan 0:1 (29.11 19:45 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 1 goals (0:1, 29.11 19:45 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 1
1 Goals conceded 0

Match history

29.11 19:45 UTC Serie A
Lazio
0:1
AC Milan