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Serie A
Serie A Italy
21.09.2025 10:30 UTC Match prediction
21.09.2025 10:30 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Lazio - AS Roma

Italy Football
Lazio
Lazio
0 : 1
Finished
AS Roma
AS Roma

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Lazio - AS Roma September 21, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like AS Roma.

Line favourite market consensus: AS Roma. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.81 / X 3.03 / 2 2.76
  • 1X2 market: Lazio 33.9% / X 31.5% / AS Roma 34.6%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 58.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.8%
1 33.9%
X 31.5%
2 34.6%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.6%
Over 2.5 41.4%
Under 2.5 58.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 21.09.2025 10:30 UTC
Match center

Lazio - AS Roma

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.77 market consensus · line only
X 3.03 market consensus · line only
1 2.82 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.45 market consensus · line only
12 1.38 market consensus · line only
1X 1.46 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.46 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.16 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.77 market consensus · line only
2 +1 4.77 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.31 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.63 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.84 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.91 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
2.87 34.8%
X 3.05 32.8%
2.85 35.1%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Betano Betfair
2.78 36.0% 2.90 34.5% 2.83 35.3% 2.70 37.0% 2.90 34.5% 2.80 35.7%
X 2.96 33.8% 2.95 33.9% 3.34 29.9% 3.00 33.3% 3.00 33.3% 2.88 34.7%
2.75 36.4% 2.78 36.0% 2.76 36.2% 2.70 37.0% 2.90 34.5% 2.80 35.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle Superbet
no 1.85 54.1% 1.89 52.9% 1.80 55.6% 1.83 54.6% 1.88 53.2% 1.80 55.6% 1.79 55.9% 1.92 52.1% 1.83 54.6%
yes 1.85 54.1% 1.92 52.1% 1.92 52.1% 1.91 52.4% 1.87 53.5% 1.95 51.3% 1.92 52.1% 1.94 51.6% 1.95 51.3%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Betano Marathonbet Pinnacle
draw_away 1.42 70.4% 1.49 67.1% 1.44 69.4% 1.45 69.0% 1.47 68.0% 1.47 68.0%
home_away 1.33 75.2% 1.38 72.5% 1.36 73.5% 1.38 72.5% 1.36 73.5% 1.41 70.9%
home_draw 1.44 69.4% 1.51 66.2% 1.44 69.4% 1.45 69.0% 1.49 67.1% 1.48 67.6%
Match center
Lazio
L W L L D
14.09 16:00 UTC Serie A
Lazio 0:1 SassuoloSassuolo
31.08 18:45 UTC Serie A
Lazio 4:0 Hellas VeronaHellas Verona
24.08 16:30 UTC Serie A
Lazio 0:2 ComoComo
25.05 18:45 UTC Serie A
Lazio 0:1 LecceLecce
18.05 18:45 UTC Serie A
Lazio 2:2 InterInter
1 Wins
1 Draws
3 Losses
1.2 Scored
1.2 Conceded
4 Points
AS Roma
L W W W W
14.09 10:30 UTC Serie A
AS Roma 0:1 TorinoTorino
30.08 18:45 UTC Serie A
AS Roma 1:0 PisaPisa
23.08 18:45 UTC Serie A
AS Roma 1:0 BolognaBologna
25.05 18:45 UTC Serie A
AS Roma 2:0 TorinoTorino
18.05 18:45 UTC Serie A
AS Roma 3:1 AC MilanAC Milan
4 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
1.4 Scored
0.4 Conceded
12 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyLazio - AS Roma

Lazio
1 matches total
AS Roma
Lazio: 0 (0%)
Draws:1 (100%)
AS Roma: 0 (0%)
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 2 goals (1:1, 13.04 18:45 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw 1:1 (13.04 18:45 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 1
1 Goals conceded 1

Match history

13.04 18:45 UTC Serie A
Lazio
1:1
AS Roma