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Serie A
Serie A Italy
04.01.2026 11:30 UTC Match prediction
04.01.2026 11:30 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Lazio - Napoli

Italy Football
Lazio
Lazio
0 : 2
Finished
Napoli
Napoli

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Lazio - Napoli January 4, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Napoli.

Line favourite market consensus: Napoli. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.64 / X 2.99 / 2 2.26
  • 1X2 market: Lazio 26.2% / X 31.8% / Napoli 42.0%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 63.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.2%
1 26.1%
X 31.8%
2 42.1%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.7%
Over 2.5 36.7%
Under 2.5 63.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 04.01.2026 11:30 UTC
Match center

Lazio - Napoli

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.27 market consensus · line only
X 3.00 market consensus · line only
1 3.65 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.29 market consensus · line only
12 1.38 market consensus · line only
1X 1.65 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.30 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.07 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.22 market consensus · line only
2 +1 3.69 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.60 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.51 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.69 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.11 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
3.80 26.3%
X 3.05 32.8%
2.29 43.7%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair
3.55 28.2% 3.85 26.0% 3.76 26.6% 3.60 27.8% 3.70 27.0% 3.60 27.8%
X 3.05 32.8% 2.95 33.9% 3.09 32.4% 3.10 32.3% 2.95 33.9% 2.90 34.5%
2.22 45.1% 2.25 44.4% 2.35 42.6% 2.20 45.5% 2.27 44.1% 2.25 44.4%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle Superbet
no 1.70 58.8% 1.74 57.5% 1.68 59.5% 1.67 59.9% 1.70 58.8% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9% 1.72 58.1% 1.68 59.5%
yes 2.10 47.6% 2.10 47.6% 2.08 48.1% 2.10 47.6% 2.07 48.3% 2.15 46.5% 2.08 48.1% 2.20 45.5% 2.15 46.5%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Marathonbet Pinnacle
draw_away 1.28 78.1% 1.32 75.8% 1.28 78.1% 1.30 76.9% 1.31 76.3% 1.30 76.9%
home_away 1.30 76.9% 1.42 70.4% 1.36 73.5% 1.38 72.5% 1.42 70.4% 1.42 70.4%
home_draw 1.65 60.6% 1.67 59.9% 1.62 61.7% 1.65 60.6% 1.66 60.2% 1.68 59.5%
Match center
Lazio
D D W D L
27.12 17:00 UTC Serie A
Lazio 1:1 UdineseUdinese
20.12 17:00 UTC Serie A
Lazio 0:0 CremoneseCremonese
13.12 17:00 UTC Serie A
Lazio 1:0 ParmaParma
07.12 17:00 UTC Serie A
Lazio 1:1 BolognaBologna
29.11 19:45 UTC Serie A
Lazio 0:1 AC MilanAC Milan
1 Wins
3 Draws
1 Losses
0.6 Scored
0.6 Conceded
6 Points
Napoli
W L W W W
28.12 14:00 UTC Serie A
Napoli 2:0 CremoneseCremonese
14.12 14:00 UTC Serie A
Napoli 0:1 UdineseUdinese
07.12 19:45 UTC Serie A
Napoli 2:1 JuventusJuventus
30.11 19:45 UTC Serie A
Napoli 1:0 AS RomaAS Roma
22.11 19:45 UTC Serie A
Napoli 3:1 AtalantaAtalanta
4 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
1.6 Scored
0.6 Conceded
12 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyLazio - Napoli

Lazio
0 matches total
Napoli
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history