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Serie A Italy

04.04.2026 18:45 UTC Match prediction

04.04.2026 18:45 UTC

Finished

Serie A

Lazio - Parma

Italy Football

Stadium Stadio Olimpiko

Lazio

1 : 1

Finished

Parma

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Lazio — 49%

1 · Lazio48.9%

X · draw27.6%

2 · Parma23.5%

Model estimate: win Lazio 48.9%, draw 27.6%, win Parma 23.5%. Model favourite — Lazio.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Lazio - Parma April 4, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Lazio.

Strongest: Lazio - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.88 / X 3.33 / 2 4.59
1X2 market: Lazio 50.7% / X 28.6% / Parma 20.8%
Glicko: Lazio 48.9% / X 27.6% / Parma 23.5%
Total 2.5: over probability 49.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.0%

1 50.7%

X 28.6%

2 20.7%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.2%

Over 2.5 43.4%

Under 2.5 56.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome

Agreement 4/4

Confidence 50.3%

Total Under 2.5

Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center

Start 04.04.2026 18:45 UTC

Stadium Stadio Olimpiko (Rim)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Lazio 49%

💹 Market Lazio 5065%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Lazio - Parma

Lazio: Win 1.90 Lazio: Draw 3.40 Parma Win: 4.50 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.20 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.67 Individualnyy total golov Lazio bolshe 1.5: 2.00 Individualnyy total golov Lazio menshe 1.5: 1.73 Individualnyy total golov Parma bolshe 0.5: 1.57 Ind…

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 1:1

Events 15

Statistics 24

Lineups 43

min Event Player Team

15' 15' Normal Goal | E. Delprato Parma

27' 27' Yellow Card | G. Strefezza Parma

32' 32' Yellow Card | M. Pellegrino Parma

57' 57' Substitution 3 | A. Marušić | assist/sub out: M. Lazzari I. Provedel Lazio

58' 58' Substitution 4 | G. Isaksen | assist/sub out: M. Cancellieri Lazio

58' 58' Substitution 5 | Pedro | assist/sub out: T. Noslin F. Muller Lazio

65' 65' Substitution 6 | D. Maldini | assist/sub out: B. Dia Lazio

71' 71' Substitution 4 | H. Nicolussi Caviglia | assist/sub out: N. Estevez O. Edouard Parma

Metric Lazio Parma SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 0.4 0.32 final

Zablokirovannye udary 1 2 final

Shots off target 3 1 final

Shots on target 3 4 final

Udary vsego 7 7 final

Fouls soversheno 12 8 final

Zheltye kartochki 1 2 final

Offsides 0 1 final

Lazio #7 Fisayo Dele-Bashiru, #9 Pedro, #13 Alessio Romagnoli, #17 N. Tavares, #18 G. Isaksen, #24 K. Taylor, #25 Oliver Provstgaard, #27 Daniel Maldini, #32 D. Cataldi, #40 E. Motta, #77 A. Marusic

Parma #5 Lautaro Valenti, #7 G. Strefezza, #9 Mateo Pellegrino, #10 A. Bernabe, #14 Emanuele Valeri, #15 Enrico Delprato, #16 Mandela Keita, #27 Sascha Britschgi, #31 Zion Suzuki, #39 Alessandro Circati, #41 Hans Nicolussi Caviglia

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Marusic Lazio football.player.assists 0

A. Marusic Lazio Dribling popytki 1

A. Marusic Lazio Edinoborstva vsego 2

A. Marusic Lazio Edinoborstva vyigrano 3

A. Marusic Lazio Seyvy 0

A. Marusic Lazio football.player.minutes_played 57

A. Marusic Lazio Klyuchevye pasy 46

A. Marusic Lazio Reyting (staryy) 6.5

A. Marusic Lazio Bloki 1

A. Marusic Lazio Otbory vsego 42

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Lazio 51.3% 48.9% market and model agree

Draw 28.9% 27.6% draw risk

Parma 19.8% 23.5%

xG - 1.38 : 0.86

Total 2.5 Over 49.5% - Under 50.5%

Model check - - Difference 0.04

Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.04

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 48.9% / 27.6% / 23.5% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,549 / 1,460 Lazio / Parma

RD 73 / 74 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 4.59 market consensus · no value · model 23.5%

X 3.33 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.88 market consensus · no value · model 48.9%

Double chance

X2 1.93 market consensus · no value · model 51.1%

12 1.31 market consensus · no value · model 72.4%

1X 1.20 market consensus · no value · model 76.5%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.97 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.49 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 4.35 market consensus · line only

1 -0.5 1.86 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 2.19 market consensus · weak value +8.3% · model 49.5%

Under 2.5 1.68 market consensus · no value · model 50.5%

Both teams to score

No 1.80 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.95 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	1.85 54.1%	1.90 52.6%	1.94 51.6%	1.85 54.1%	1.90 52.6%	1.91 52.4%
X	3.25 30.8%	3.40 29.4%	3.44 29.1%	3.20 31.3%	3.40 29.4%	3.35 29.9%
	4.50 22.2%	4.50 22.2%	4.79 20.9%	4.40 22.7%	4.50 22.2%	5.00 20.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet
no	1.80 55.6%	1.84 54.4%	1.78 56.2%	1.80 55.6%	1.80 55.6%	1.82 55.0%	1.83 54.6%	1.78 56.2%	1.76 56.8%
yes	1.95 51.3%	1.98 50.5%	1.95 51.3%	1.95 51.3%	1.95 51.3%	1.93 51.8%	1.91 52.4%	1.93 51.8%	1.95 51.3%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.90 52.6%	1.96 51.0%	1.95 51.3%	2.00 50.0%	1.95 51.3%	1.83 54.6%
home_away	1.28 78.1%	1.36 73.5%	1.33 75.2%	1.30 76.9%	1.32 75.8%	1.25 80.0%
home_draw	1.20 83.3%	1.22 82.0%	1.18 84.8%	1.17 85.5%	1.21 82.6%	1.17 85.5%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	1.08 92.6%	—	1.02 98.0%
Over 0.75	—	—	1.04 96.2%
Over 1.0	—	—	1.06 94.3%
Over 1.25	—	—	1.20 83.3%
Over 1.5	1.40 71.4%	—	1.35 74.1%
Over 1.75	—	—	1.44 69.4%
Over 2.25	—	1.95 51.3%	—
Over 2.5	2.15 46.5%	—	—
Over 3.5	3.95 25.3%	—	—
Over 4.5	8.00 12.5%	—	—
Under 0.5	7.50 13.3%	—	—
Under 1.5	2.90 34.5%	—	—
Under 2.25	—	1.95 51.3%	—
Under 2.5	1.67 59.9%	—	—
Under 3.5	1.25 80.0%	—	—
Under 4.5	1.07 93.5%	—	—

Match center

Lazio

Founded 1900

Parma

Founded 1913

Match center

Lazio

TB T. Bašić Muscle Injury

SG S. Gigot Ankle Injury

Parma

AB Adrián Bernabé Muscle Injury

PA P. Almqvist Thigh Injury

Lazio Founded: 1900

Parma Founded: 1913

Match center

Lazio

W W W L D

22.03 14:00 UTC Serie A

Lazio 2:0 Bologna

15.03 19:45 UTC Serie A

Lazio 1:0 AC Milan

09.03 19:45 UTC Serie A

Lazio 2:1 Sassuolo

01.03 17:00 UTC Serie A

Lazio 0:2 Torino

21.02 19:45 UTC Serie A

Lazio 0:0 Cagliari

3 Wins

1 Draws

1 Losses

1.0 Scored

0.6 Conceded

10 Points

Parma

L L D D W

21.03 14:00 UTC Serie A

Parma 0:2 Cremonese

13.03 19:45 UTC Serie A

Parma 1:4 Torino

08.03 14:00 UTC Serie A

Parma 0:0 Fiorentina

27.02 19:45 UTC Serie A

Parma 1:1 Cagliari

22.02 17:00 UTC Serie A

Parma 1:0 AC Milan

1 Wins

2 Draws

2 Losses

0.6 Scored

1.4 Conceded

5 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyLazio - Parma

Lazio

2 matches total

Parma

Lazio: 1 (50%)

Draws:1 (50%)

Parma: 0 (0%)

Biggest win Lazio 1:0 (13.12 17:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 4 goals (2:2, 28.04 18:45 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw 2:2 (28.04 18:45 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

3 Goals scored 2

2 Goals conceded 3

Match history

13.12 17:00 UTC

Serie A

Lazio

1:0

Parma

28.04 18:45 UTC

Serie A

Lazio

2:2

Parma

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.