PropickAI PropickAI
Sign in Sign up
Free access Sign in to unlock the full prediction Create a free account to see the full AI breakdown, probabilities, risks and history.
Serie A
Serie A Italy
27.04.2026 18:45 UTC Match prediction Prediction
27.04.2026 18:45 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Lazio - Udinese

Italy Football
Stadium Stadio Olimpiko
Lazio
Lazio
3 : 3
Finished
Udinese
Udinese
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Lazio — 45%

1 · Lazio45.0%
X · draw28.6%
2 · Udinese26.4%

Model estimate: win Lazio 45.0%, draw 28.6%, win Udinese 26.4%. Model favourite — Lazio.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Lazio - Udinese April 27, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Lazio.

Strongest: Lazio - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.97 / X 3.29 / 2 3.93
  • 1X2 market: Lazio 47.5% / X 28.5% / Udinese 23.9%
  • Glicko: Lazio 45.0% / X 28.6% / Udinese 26.4%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 78.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.6%
1 47.6%
X 28.5%
2 23.9%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.1%
Over 2.5 43.0%
Under 2.5 57.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 46.8%
Total Over 2.5
Score 2:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.

Match center
Start 27.04.2026 18:45 UTC
Stadium Stadio Olimpiko (Rim)

? ? ??? ? ??????§? ? ??? ? ??????°? ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ??? ????????? ? ? ??? ? ? ??° ? ? ? ??? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ??????°? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ? ??? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ? ?????  ? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ??????±? ? ? ??? ? ??????? ? ??? ? ??????°? ? ??? ? ? ?????¦? ? ??? ? ??????° ? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ??????· SStats.

🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Lazio 45%
💹 Market Lazio 4753%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Lazio - Udinese

Lazio: Win 1.95 Lazio: Draw 3.30 Udinese Win: 4.00 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.20 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.67 Individualnyy total golov Lazio bolshe 1.5: 2.10 Individualnyy total golov Lazio menshe 1.5: 1.67 Individualnyy total golov Udinese bolshe 0.5: 1.53…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 3:3
Events 20
Statistics 24
Lineups 46
min Event Player Team
18' 18' Normal Goal | K. Ehizibue | assist/sub out: J. Ekkelenkamp Udinese
41' 41' Yellow Card | M. Cancellieri Lazio
46' 46' Substitution 1 | Boulaye Dia | assist/sub out: Pedro E. Slørdal Lazio
46' 46' Substitution 2 | K. Taylor | assist/sub out: Fisayo Dele-Bashiru Lazio
50' 50' Normal Goal | Luca Pellegrini Lazio
57' 57' Yellow Card | Luca Pellegrini Lazio
65' 65' Substitution 3 | J. Piotrowski | assist/sub out: L. Miller Lautaro Valenti Udinese
65' 65' Substitution 6 | M. Cancellieri | assist/sub out: G. Isaksen Lazio
Metric Lazio Udinese SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 2.46 1.93 final
Zablokirovannye udary 2 3 final
Shots off target 6 6 final
Shots on target 5 7 final
Udary vsego 13 16 final
Fouls soversheno 17 14 final
Zheltye kartochki 3 1 final
Offsides 1 3 final
Lazio #3 Luca Pellegrini, #4 Patric, #13 Alessio Romagnoli, #14 Tijjani Noslin, #19 B. Dia, #22 Matteo Cancellieri, #24 K. Taylor, #25 Oliver Provstgaard, #26 Toma Bašić, #29 Manuel Lazzari, #40 E. Motta
Udinese #7 I. Gueye, #10 N. Zaniolo, #11 H. Kamara, #14 Arthur Atta, #19 Kingsley Ehizibue, #24 J. Piotrowski, #27 Christian Kabasele, #28 Oumar Solet, #31 Thomas Kristensen, #32 J. Ekkelenkamp, #40 Maduka Okoye
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Marusic Lazio Seyvy 0
A. Przyborek Lazio Seyvy 0
Alessio Romagnoli Lazio football.player.assists 0
Alessio Romagnoli Lazio Dribling popytki 2
Alessio Romagnoli Lazio Edinoborstva vsego 1
Alessio Romagnoli Lazio Edinoborstva vyigrano 3
Alessio Romagnoli Lazio Fouls soversheno 1
Alessio Romagnoli Lazio Seyvy 0
Alessio Romagnoli Lazio football.player.minutes_played 90
Alessio Romagnoli Lazio Klyuchevye pasy 85
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Lazio 48.2% 45.0% market and model agree
Draw 28.3% 28.6% draw risk
Udinese 23.5% 26.4%
xG - 1.28 : 0.91
Total 2.5 Over 78.7% - Under 21.3%
Model check - - Difference 0.03
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk The match leans toward a high total Market vs Glicko gap: 0.03

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 45.0% / 28.6% / 26.4% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,552 / 1,519 Lazio / Udinese
RD 71 / 71 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.93 market consensus · no value · model 26.4%
X 3.29 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.97 market consensus · no value · model 45.0%
Double chance
X2 1.81 market consensus · no value · model 55.0%
12 1.31 market consensus · no value · model 71.4%
1X 1.23 market consensus · no value · model 73.6%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.84 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.39 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 3.79 market consensus · line only
2 +1 7.90 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.21 market consensus · weak value +73.9% · model 78.7%
Under 2.5 1.67 market consensus · no value · model 21.3%
Both teams to score
No 1.80 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.94 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
1.95 51.3% 2.04 49.0% 1.95 51.3% 1.95 51.3% 2.00 50.0% 1.95 51.3%
X 3.30 30.3% 3.48 28.7% 3.20 31.3% 3.30 30.3% 3.35 29.9% 3.30 30.3%
3.95 25.3% 4.19 23.9% 3.80 26.3% 4.00 25.0% 4.05 24.7% 3.80 26.3%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 1.80 55.6% 1.79 55.9% 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.78 56.2% 1.77 56.5% 1.83 54.6%
yes 1.95 51.3% 1.94 51.6% 1.95 51.3% 1.95 51.3% 1.95 51.3% 1.91 52.4% 1.93 51.8% 1.94 51.6% 1.92 52.1%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.80 55.6% 1.86 53.8% 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.85 54.1% 1.73 57.8%
home_away 1.28 78.1% 1.36 73.5% 1.33 75.2% 1.33 75.2% 1.31 76.3% 1.25 80.0%
home_draw 1.22 82.0% 1.27 78.7% 1.22 82.0% 1.22 82.0% 1.26 79.4% 1.22 82.0%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.07 93.5% 1.03 97.1%
Over 0.75 — 1.05 95.2%
Over 1.0 — 1.07 93.5%
Over 1.25 — 1.22 82.0%
Over 1.5 1.40 71.4% 1.36 73.5%
Over 1.75 — 1.47 68.0%
Over 2.0 — 1.63 61.4%
Over 2.25 — 1.90 52.6%
Over 2.5 2.20 45.5% —
Over 3.5 4.20 23.8% —
Over 4.5 8.00 12.5% —
Under 0.5 8.00 12.5% —
Under 1.5 2.90 34.5% —
Under 2.5 1.65 60.6% —
Under 3.5 1.22 82.0% —
Under 4.5 1.07 93.5% —
Match center
Lazio
Founded 1900
Udinese
Founded 1896
Match center
Lazio
W L D W W
18.04 16:00 UTC Serie A
Lazio 2:0 NapoliNapoli
13.04 18:45 UTC Serie A
Lazio 0:1 FiorentinaFiorentina
04.04 18:45 UTC Serie A
Lazio 1:1 ParmaParma
22.03 14:00 UTC Serie A
Lazio 2:0 BolognaBologna
15.03 19:45 UTC Serie A
Lazio 1:0 AC MilanAC Milan
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
1.2 Scored
0.4 Conceded
10 Points
Udinese
L W D W L
18.04 13:00 UTC Serie A
Udinese 0:1 ParmaParma
11.04 16:00 UTC Serie A
Udinese 3:0 AC MilanAC Milan
06.04 10:30 UTC Serie A
Udinese 0:0 ComoComo
20.03 19:45 UTC Serie A
Udinese 2:0 GenoaGenoa
14.03 19:45 UTC Serie A
Udinese 0:1 JuventusJuventus
2 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
1.0 Scored
0.4 Conceded
7 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyLazio - Udinese

Lazio
1 matches total
Udinese
Lazio: 0 (0%)
Draws:1 (100%)
Udinese: 0 (0%)
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 2 goals (1:1, 27.12 17:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw 1:1 (27.12 17:00 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 1
1 Goals conceded 1

Match history

27.12 17:00 UTC Serie A
Lazio
1:1
Udinese
Match center
? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????±? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????»? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????° ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??-? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????° ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????µ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ????? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??-? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°.

The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.