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Serie A
Serie A Italy
06.04.2026 13:00 UTC Match prediction
06.04.2026 13:00 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Lecce - Atalanta

Italy Football
Stadium Via del mare
Lecce
Lecce
0 : 3
Finished
Atalanta
Atalanta
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Atalanta — 52%

1 · Lecce21.8%
X · draw26.5%
2 · Atalanta51.7%

Model estimate: win Lecce 21.8%, draw 26.5%, win Atalanta 51.7%. Model favourite — Atalanta.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Lecce - Atalanta April 6, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Atalanta.

Strongest: Atalanta - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 5.08 / X 3.65 / 2 1.72
  • 1X2 market: Lecce 18.7% / X 26.0% / Atalanta 55.3%
  • Glicko: Lecce 21.8% / X 26.5% / Atalanta 51.7%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 28.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.2%
1 18.7%
X 26.0%
2 55.3%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.0%
Over 2.5 47.4%
Under 2.5 52.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 2

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 53.6%
Total Under 2.5
Score 0:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 06.04.2026 13:00 UTC
Stadium Via del mare (Lechche)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Atalanta 52%
💹 Market Atalanta 5525%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Lecce - Atalanta

Lecce: Win 5.00 Lecce: Draw 3.75 Atalanta Win: 1.75 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.00 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.80 Individualnyy total golov Lecce bolshe 0.5: 1.57 Individualnyy total golov Lecce menshe 0.5: 2.25 Individualnyy total golov Atalanta bolshe 1.5: 1.…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 0:3
Events 14
Statistics 24
Lineups 42
min Event Player Team
29' 29' Normal Goal | Giorgio Scalvini | assist/sub out: Charles De Ketelaere Atalanta
46' 46' Substitution 1 | Sadik Fofana | assist/sub out: Omri Gandelman Lecce
47' 47' Yellow Card | Berat Djimsiti Atalanta
59' 59' Normal Goal | Nikola Krstović | assist/sub out: Charles De Ketelaere Atalanta
63' 63' Substitution 1 | Nicola Zalewski | assist/sub out: Giacomo Raspadori Atalanta
63' 63' Substitution 2 | Marten de Roon | assist/sub out: Mario Pašalić Atalanta
67' 67' Substitution 2 | Danilo Veiga | assist/sub out: Konan N'Dri Lecce
68' 68' Substitution 3 | Ylber Ramadani | assist/sub out: Lassana Coulibaly Aleksandra Eala Lecce
Metric Lecce Atalanta SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 0.44 2.78 final
Zablokirovannye udary 5 4 final
Shots off target 6 6 final
Shots on target 0 6 final
Udary vsego 11 16 final
Fouls soversheno 10 18 final
Zheltye kartochki 0 2 final
Offsides 2 5 final
Lecce #15 Marten de Roon, #17 C. De Ketelaere, #19 B. Djimsiti, #23 S. Kolasinac, #29 M. Carnesecchi, #42 G. Scalvini, #47 L. Bernasconi, #59 N. Zalewski, #77 D. Zappacosta, #90 N. Krstović
Atalanta #3 C. Ndaba, #5 J. Siebert, #17 Danilo Veiga, #19 Lameck Banda, #20 Y. Ramadani, #30 Wladimiro Falcone, #44 Tiago Gabriel, #50 Santiago Pierotti, #79 O. Ngom, #99 Walid Cheddira
Player Team Metric SStats
B. Djimsiti Lecce football.player.assists 0
B. Djimsiti Lecce Dribling popytki 5
B. Djimsiti Lecce Edinoborstva vyigrano 6
B. Djimsiti Lecce Fouls soversheno 1
B. Djimsiti Lecce Seyvy 0
B. Djimsiti Lecce football.player.minutes_played 70
B. Djimsiti Lecce Klyuchevye pasy 37
B. Djimsiti Lecce Reyting (staryy) 7.2
B. Djimsiti Lecce Bloki 2
B. Djimsiti Lecce Perekhvaty 2
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Lecce 19.4% 21.8%
Draw 25.6% 26.5% draw risk
Atalanta 55.0% 51.7% market and model agree
xG - 0.85 : 1.47
Total 2.5 Over 28.0% - Under 72.0%
Model check - - Difference 0.03
Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.03

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 21.8% / 26.5% / 51.7% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,442 / 1,607 Lecce / Atalanta
RD 76 / 75 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.72 market consensus · no value · model 51.7%
X 3.65 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 5.08 market consensus · no value · model 21.8%
Double chance
X2 1.17 market consensus · no value · model 78.2%
12 1.27 market consensus · no value · model 73.5%
1X 2.12 market consensus · no value · model 48.3%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.18 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.02 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 1.71 market consensus · line only
2 +1 2.31 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.01 market consensus · no value · model 28.0%
Under 2.5 1.81 market consensus · value +30.4% · model 72.0%
Both teams to score
No 1.83 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.91 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
5.10 19.6% 5.00 20.0% 5.37 18.6% 4.80 20.8% 5.00 20.0% 5.20 19.2%
X 3.55 28.2% 3.80 26.3% 3.84 26.0% 3.50 28.6% 3.70 27.0% 3.75 26.7%
1.69 59.2% 1.72 58.1% 1.76 56.8% 1.70 58.8% 1.70 58.8% 1.78 56.2%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet
no 1.83 54.6% 1.87 53.5% 1.82 55.0% 1.83 54.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.85 54.1% 1.83 54.6% 1.83 54.6% 1.79 55.9%
yes 1.90 52.6% 1.94 51.6% 1.90 52.6% 1.91 52.4% 1.95 51.3% 1.88 53.2% 1.91 52.4% 1.85 54.1% 1.92 52.1%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.15 87.0% 1.19 84.0% 1.17 85.5% 1.17 85.5% 1.20 83.3% 1.13 88.5%
home_away 1.22 82.0% 1.31 76.3% 1.29 77.5% 1.28 78.1% 1.27 78.7% 1.25 80.0%
home_draw 2.10 47.6% 2.19 45.7% 2.10 47.6% 2.10 47.6% 2.12 47.2% 2.10 47.6%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.06 94.3% — 1.00 100.0%
Over 0.75 — — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0 — — 1.03 97.1%
Over 1.25 — — 1.16 86.2%
Over 1.5 1.33 75.2% — 1.28 78.1%
Over 1.75 — — 1.37 73.0%
Over 2.5 2.00 50.0% 2.06 48.5% —
Over 3.5 3.45 29.0% — —
Over 4.5 6.50 15.4% — —
Under 0.5 8.50 11.8% — —
Under 1.5 3.25 30.8% — —
Under 2.5 1.80 55.6% 1.84 54.4% —
Under 3.5 1.30 76.9% — —
Under 4.5 1.10 90.9% — —
Match center
Lecce
Founded 1908
Atalanta
Founded 1907
Match center
Lecce
LC L. Coulibaly Hamstring Injury
RS R. Sottil Back Injury
Atalanta
GS G. Scamacca Muscle Injury
IH I. Hien Thigh Injury
Lecce Founded: 1908
Atalanta Founded: 1907
Match center
Lecce
L L W L L
22.03 17:00 UTC Serie A
Lecce 0:1 AS RomaAS Roma
14.03 17:00 UTC Serie A
Lecce 1:2 NapoliNapoli
08.03 11:30 UTC Serie A
Lecce 2:1 CremoneseCremonese
28.02 14:00 UTC Serie A
Lecce 1:3 ComoComo
21.02 17:00 UTC Serie A
Lecce 0:2 InterInter
1 Wins
0 Draws
4 Losses
0.8 Scored
1.8 Conceded
3 Points
Atalanta
W D D L W
22.03 14:00 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 1:0 Hellas VeronaHellas Verona
14.03 14:00 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 1:1 InterInter
07.03 17:00 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 2:2 UdineseUdinese
01.03 14:00 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 1:2 SassuoloSassuolo
22.02 14:00 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 2:1 NapoliNapoli
2 Wins
2 Draws
1 Losses
1.4 Scored
1.2 Conceded
8 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyLecce - Atalanta

Lecce
2 matches total
Atalanta
Lecce: 0 (0%)
Draws:1 (50%)
Atalanta: 1 (50%)
Biggest win Atalanta 1:4 (14.09 13:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 5 goals (1:4, 14.09 13:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw 1:1 (27.04 18:45 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

2 Goals scored 5
5 Goals conceded 2

Match history

14.09 13:00 UTC Serie A
Lecce
1:4
Atalanta
27.04 18:45 UTC Serie A
Lecce
1:1
Atalanta
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.