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Serie A
Serie A Italy
28.09.2025 16:00 UTC Match prediction
28.09.2025 16:00 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Lecce - Bologna

Italy Football
Lecce
Lecce
2 : 2
Finished
Bologna
Bologna

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Lecce - Bologna September 28, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Bologna.

Line favourite market consensus: Bologna. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 5.28 / X 3.45 / 2 1.75
  • 1X2 market: Lecce 18.0% / X 27.6% / Bologna 54.4%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 58.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.1%
1 18.0%
X 27.6%
2 54.4%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.6%
Over 2.5 41.4%
Under 2.5 58.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 28.09.2025 16:00 UTC
Match center

Lecce - Bologna

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.74 market consensus · line only
X 3.47 market consensus · line only
1 5.30 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.17 market consensus · line only
12 1.31 market consensus · line only
1X 2.09 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.21 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.01 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 1.74 market consensus · line only
2 +1 2.40 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.31 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.63 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.68 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.13 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
5.65 17.7%
X 3.70 27.0%
1.71 58.5%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
5.10 19.6% 5.80 17.2% 5.20 19.2% 5.00 20.0% 5.50 18.2% 5.40 18.5%
X 3.45 29.0% 3.55 28.2% 3.52 28.4% 3.25 30.8% 3.50 28.6% 3.50 28.6%
1.74 57.5% 1.70 58.8% 1.85 54.1% 1.73 57.8% 1.70 58.8% 1.72 58.1%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 1.65 60.6% 1.68 59.5% 1.64 61.0% 1.70 58.8% 1.67 59.9% 1.65 60.6% 1.67 59.9% 1.63 61.4% 1.75 57.1%
yes 2.10 47.6% 2.21 45.3% 2.14 46.7% 2.10 47.6% 2.10 47.6% 2.15 46.5% 2.15 46.5% 2.14 46.7% 2.17 46.1%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 1.15 87.0% 1.20 83.3% 1.18 84.8% 1.14 87.7% 1.18 84.8% 1.18 84.8%
home_away 1.25 80.0% 1.35 74.1% 1.33 75.2% 1.28 78.1% 1.29 77.5% 1.33 75.2%
home_draw 2.05 48.8% 2.06 48.5% 1.95 51.3% 2.10 47.6% 2.15 46.5% 2.06 48.5%
Match center
Lecce
L L L D W
19.09 18:45 UTC Serie A
Lecce 1:2 CagliariCagliari
14.09 13:00 UTC Serie A
Lecce 1:4 AtalantaAtalanta
29.08 18:45 UTC Serie A
Lecce 0:2 AC MilanAC Milan
23.08 16:30 UTC Serie A
Lecce 0:0 GenoaGenoa
25.05 18:45 UTC Serie A
Lecce 1:0 LazioLazio
1 Wins
1 Draws
3 Losses
0.6 Scored
1.6 Conceded
4 Points
Bologna
W L W L L
20.09 13:00 UTC Serie A
Bologna 2:1 GenoaGenoa
14.09 18:45 UTC Serie A
Bologna 0:1 AC MilanAC Milan
30.08 16:30 UTC Serie A
Bologna 1:0 ComoComo
23.08 18:45 UTC Serie A
Bologna 0:1 AS RomaAS Roma
24.05 16:00 UTC Serie A
Bologna 1:3 GenoaGenoa
2 Wins
0 Draws
3 Losses
0.8 Scored
1.2 Conceded
6 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyLecce - Bologna

Lecce
0 matches total
Bologna
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history