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Serie A
Serie A Italy
28.10.2025 17:30 UTC Match prediction
28.10.2025 17:30 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Lecce - Napoli

Italy Football
Lecce
Lecce
0 : 1
Finished
Napoli
Napoli

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Lecce - Napoli October 28, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Napoli.

Line favourite market consensus: Napoli. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 6.62 / X 3.85 / 2 1.56
  • 1X2 market: Lecce 14.4% / X 24.8% / Napoli 60.8%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 57.1%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.2%
1 14.4%
X 24.7%
2 60.9%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.4%
Over 2.5 43.0%
Under 2.5 57.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 28.10.2025 17:30 UTC
Match center

Lecce - Napoli

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.57 market consensus · line only
X 3.85 market consensus · line only
1 6.64 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.12 market consensus · line only
12 1.27 market consensus · line only
1X 2.44 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.12 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.02 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 1.56 market consensus · line only
2 +1 2.04 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.23 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.68 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.62 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.24 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
6.83 14.6%
X 3.84 26.0%
1.59 62.9%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
6.75 14.8% 6.50 15.4% 6.70 14.9% 6.00 16.7% 7.00 14.3% 7.00 14.3%
X 3.75 26.7% 3.95 25.3% 3.97 25.2% 3.80 26.3% 3.80 26.3% 3.90 25.6%
1.56 64.1% 1.59 62.9% 1.63 61.4% 1.53 65.4% 1.53 65.4% 1.60 62.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 1.62 61.7% 1.63 61.4% 1.61 62.1% 1.62 61.7% 1.62 61.7% 1.62 61.7% 1.57 63.7% 1.59 62.9% 1.66 60.2%
yes 2.15 46.5% 2.28 43.9% 2.21 45.3% 2.25 44.4% 2.20 45.5% 2.22 45.1% 2.30 43.5% 2.21 45.3% 2.32 43.1%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 1.10 90.9% 1.14 87.7% 1.11 90.1% 1.11 90.1% 1.13 88.5% 1.13 88.5%
home_away 1.22 82.0% 1.29 77.5% 1.25 80.0% 1.25 80.0% 1.26 79.4% 1.28 78.1%
home_draw 2.38 42.0% 2.43 41.2% 2.50 40.0% 2.38 42.0% 2.42 41.3% 2.45 40.8%
Match center
Lecce
L D W D L
25.10 13:00 UTC Serie A
Lecce 2:3 UdineseUdinese
18.10 13:00 UTC Serie A
Lecce 0:0 SassuoloSassuolo
04.10 13:00 UTC Serie A
Lecce 1:0 ParmaParma
28.09 16:00 UTC Serie A
Lecce 2:2 BolognaBologna
19.09 18:45 UTC Serie A
Lecce 1:2 CagliariCagliari
1 Wins
2 Draws
2 Losses
1.2 Scored
1.4 Conceded
5 Points
Napoli
W L W L W
25.10 16:00 UTC Serie A
Napoli 3:1 InterInter
18.10 16:00 UTC Serie A
Napoli 0:1 TorinoTorino
05.10 16:00 UTC Serie A
Napoli 2:1 GenoaGenoa
28.09 18:45 UTC Serie A
Napoli 1:2 AC MilanAC Milan
22.09 18:45 UTC Serie A
Napoli 3:2 PisaPisa
3 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
1.8 Scored
1.4 Conceded
9 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyLecce - Napoli

Lecce
2 matches total
Napoli
Lecce: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Napoli: 2 (100%)
Biggest win Napoli 0:1 (03.05 16:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 1 goals (0:1, 03.05 16:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 2
2 Goals conceded 0

Match history

03.05 16:00 UTC Serie A
Lecce
0:1
Napoli
26.10 13:00 UTC Serie A
Lecce
0:1
Napoli