Serie A
Serie A Italy
21.09.2024 18:45 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Lecce - Parma

Italy Futbol
Lecce
Lecce
2 : 2
Finished
Parma
Parma

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Lecce - Parma 21 сентября 2024

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Lecce.

Line favourite market consensus: Lecce. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.30 / X 3.46 / 2 3.29
  • 1X2 market: Lecce 42.3% / X 28.1% / Parma 29.6%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 51.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 2.8%
1 42.3%
X 28.1%
2 29.6%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 2.7%
Over 2.5 51.5%
Under 2.5 48.5%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 21.09.2024 18:45 UTC
Match center

Lecce - Parma

Form 1/1 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.29 market consensus · line only
X 3.46 market consensus · line only
1 2.30 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.68 market consensus · line only
12 1.35 market consensus · line only
1X 1.38 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.89 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.01 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome SStats Consensus
П1 2.30 43.5%
Х 3.46 28.9%
П2 3.29 30.4%

Double chance

Outcome SStats Consensus
draw_away 1.68 59.5%
home_away 1.35 74.1%
home_draw 1.38 72.5%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome SStats Consensus
ТБ 2.5 1.89 52.9%
ТМ 2.5 2.01 49.8%

Home/Away

Outcome SStats Consensus
П1 1.64 61.0%
П2 2.35 42.6%
Match center
Lecce
D
15.09 13:00 UTC Serie A
Lecce 0:0 TorinoTorino
0 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
0.0 Scored
0.0 Conceded
1 Points
Parma
L
16.09 16:30 UTC Serie A
Parma 2:3 UdineseUdinese
0 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
2.0 Scored
3.0 Conceded
0 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyLecce - Parma

Lecce
0 matches total
Parma
Biggest win largest score margin
Highest-scoring match most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw draw with the most goals

Match history