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Serie A Italy

06.04.2026 18:45 UTC Match prediction

06.04.2026 18:45 UTC

Finished

Serie A

Napoli - AC Milan

Italy Football

Stadium Diego Armando Maradona

Napoli

1 : 0

Finished

AC Milan

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Napoli — 38%

1 · Napoli38.1%

X · draw28.5%

2 · AC Milan33.4%

Model estimate: win Napoli 38.1%, draw 28.5%, win AC Milan 33.4%. Model favourite — Napoli.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Napoli - AC Milan April 6, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Napoli.

Strongest: Napoli - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.49 / X 2.97 / 2 3.18
1X2 market: Napoli 38.2% / X 32.0% / AC Milan 29.9%
Glicko: Napoli 38.1% / X 28.5% / AC Milan 33.4%
Total 2.5: over probability 38.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.3%

1 38.1%

X 32.0%

2 29.9%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.2%

Over 2.5 41.0%

Under 2.5 59.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: X

Main outcome X

Agreement 4/4

Confidence 30.1%

Total Under 2.5

Score 1:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center

Start 06.04.2026 18:45 UTC

Stadium Diego Armando Maradona (Neapol)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Napoli 38%

💹 Market Napoli 3816%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Napoli - AC Milan

Napoli: Win 2.45 Napoli: Draw 3.00 AC Milan Win: 3.10 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.30 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.62 Individualnyy total golov Napoli bolshe 1.5: 2.62 Individualnyy total golov Napoli menshe 1.5: 1.44 Individualnyy total golov AC Milan bolshe 0.5…

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 1:0

Events 12

Statistics 24

Lineups 40

min Event Player Team

12' 12' Yellow Card | Alessandro Buongiorno Napoli

62' 62' Substitution 1 | Niclas Füllkrug | assist/sub out: Santiago Giménez AC Milan

63' 63' Substitution 2 | Niclas Füllkrug | assist/sub out: Santiago Giménez AC Milan

70' 70' Substitution 1 | Giovane | assist/sub out: Alisson Santos Napoli

74' 74' Substitution 2 | Leonardo Spinazzola | assist/sub out: Matteo Politano E. Fernandez Napoli

74' 74' Substitution 3 | Christopher Nkunku | assist/sub out: Christian Pulišić AC Milan

79' 79' Normal Goal | Matteo Politano Napoli

81' 81' Yellow Card | Matteo Politano Napoli

Metric Napoli AC Milan SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 0.8 0.6 final

Zablokirovannye udary 1 0 final

Shots off target 6 6 final

Shots on target 3 1 final

Udary vsego 10 7 final

Fouls soversheno 7 6 final

Zheltye kartochki 2 0 final

Offsides 5 2 final

Napoli #5 K. De Winter, #9 Niclas Füllkrug, #12 A. Rabiot, #14 L. Modric, #16 M. Maignan, #18 Christopher Nkunku, #19 Youssouf Fofana, #23 F. Tomori, #31 S. Pavlovic, #33 D. Bartesaghi, #56 A. Saelemaekers

AC Milan #3 Miguel Gutiérrez, #4 A. Buongiorno, #5 Juan Jesus, #8 S. McTominay, #11 K. De Bruyne, #17 M. Olivera, #23 Giovane, #32 V. Milinkovic-Savic, #37 L. Spinazzola, #68 S. Lobotka, #99 Frank Anguissa

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Jashari Napoli Seyvy 0

A. Rabiot Napoli football.player.assists 0

A. Rabiot Napoli Dribling popytki 5

A. Rabiot Napoli Edinoborstva vyigrano 9

A. Rabiot Napoli Fouls soversheno 2

A. Rabiot Napoli Conceded golov 1

A. Rabiot Napoli Seyvy 0

A. Rabiot Napoli football.player.minutes_played 90

A. Rabiot Napoli Klyuchevye pasy 41

A. Rabiot Napoli Reyting (staryy) 6.9

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Napoli 38.2% 38.1% market and model agree

Draw 31.9% 28.5% draw risk

AC Milan 30.0% 33.4%

xG - 1.18 : 1.09

Total 2.5 Over 38.9% - Under 61.2%

Model check - - Difference 0.03

Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.03

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 38.1% / 28.5% / 33.4% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,647 / 1,671 Napoli / AC Milan

RD 77 / 77 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 3.18 market consensus · no value · model 33.4%

X 2.97 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 2.49 market consensus · no value · model 38.1%

Double chance

X2 1.54 market consensus · no value · model 61.9%

12 1.38 market consensus · no value · model 71.5%

1X 1.36 market consensus · no value · model 66.6%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.55 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.21 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 3.10 market consensus · line only

2 +1 6.00 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 2.32 market consensus · no value · model 38.9%

Under 2.5 1.61 market consensus · no value · model 61.2%

Both teams to score

No 1.85 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.91 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	2.50 40.0%	2.53 39.5%	2.59 38.6%	2.45 40.8%	2.40 41.7%	2.50 40.0%
X	2.98 33.6%	2.95 33.9%	3.04 32.9%	2.90 34.5%	3.00 33.3%	2.90 34.5%
	3.00 33.3%	3.25 30.8%	3.32 30.1%	3.00 33.3%	3.25 30.8%	3.30 30.3%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet
no	1.85 54.1%	1.90 52.6%	1.75 57.1%	1.91 52.4%	1.91 52.4%	1.85 54.1%	1.80 55.6%	1.80 55.6%	1.83 54.6%
yes	1.90 52.6%	1.91 52.4%	1.98 50.5%	1.83 54.6%	1.91 52.4%	1.88 53.2%	1.95 51.3%	1.90 52.6%	1.98 50.5%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.50 66.7%	1.56 64.1%	1.53 65.4%	1.53 65.4%	1.55 64.5%	1.53 65.4%
home_away	1.33 75.2%	1.43 69.9%	1.40 71.4%	1.36 73.5%	1.38 72.5%	1.30 76.9%
home_draw	1.36 73.5%	1.38 72.5%	1.36 73.5%	1.36 73.5%	1.36 73.5%	1.33 75.2%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	1.09 91.7%	—	1.05 95.2%
Over 0.75	—	—	1.06 94.3%
Over 1.0	—	—	1.09 91.7%
Over 1.25	—	—	1.25 80.0%
Over 1.5	1.42 70.4%	—	1.40 71.4%
Over 1.75	—	—	1.52 65.8%
Over 2.25	—	2.09 47.9%	—
Over 2.5	2.25 44.4%	—	—
Over 3.5	4.20 23.8%	—	—
Over 4.5	8.50 11.8%	—	—
Under 0.5	7.00 14.3%	—	—
Under 1.5	2.80 35.7%	—	—
Under 2.25	—	1.81 55.3%	—
Under 2.5	1.62 61.7%	—	—
Under 3.5	1.22 82.0%	—	—
Under 4.5	1.06 94.3%	—	—

Match center

Napoli

Founded 1904

AC Milan

Founded 1899

Match center

Napoli

DN David Neres Ankle Injury

AR Amir Rrahmani Hamstring Injury

AC Milan

RL Rafael Leão Muscle Injury

MG M. Gabbia Muscle Injury

Napoli Founded: 1904

AC Milan Founded: 1899

Match center

Napoli

W W W W L

20.03 17:30 UTC Serie A

Napoli 1:0 Cagliari

14.03 17:00 UTC Serie A

Napoli 2:1 Lecce

06.03 19:45 UTC Serie A

Napoli 2:1 Torino

28.02 17:00 UTC Serie A

Napoli 2:1 Hellas Verona

22.02 14:00 UTC Serie A

Napoli 1:2 Atalanta

4 Wins

0 Draws

1 Losses

1.6 Scored

1.0 Conceded

12 Points

AC Milan

W L W W L

21.03 17:00 UTC Serie A

AC Milan 3:2 Torino

15.03 19:45 UTC Serie A

AC Milan 0:1 Lazio

08.03 19:45 UTC Serie A

AC Milan 1:0 Inter

01.03 11:30 UTC Serie A

AC Milan 2:0 Cremonese

22.02 17:00 UTC Serie A

AC Milan 0:1 Parma

3 Wins

0 Draws

2 Losses

1.2 Scored

0.8 Conceded

9 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyNapoli - AC Milan

Napoli

2 matches total

AC Milan

Napoli: 1 (50%)

Draws:0 (0%)

AC Milan: 1 (50%)

Biggest win Napoli 2:0 (29.10 19:45 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 3 goals (1:2, 28.09 18:45 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

3 Goals scored 2

2 Goals conceded 3

Match history

28.09 18:45 UTC

Serie A

Napoli

1:2

AC Milan

29.10 19:45 UTC

Serie A

Napoli

2:0

AC Milan

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.