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Serie A
Serie A Italy
24.04.2026 18:45 UTC Match prediction Prediction
24.04.2026 18:45 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Napoli - Cremonese

Italy Football
Stadium Diego Armando Maradona
Napoli
Napoli
4 : 0
Finished
Cremonese
Cremonese
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Napoli — 65%

1 · Napoli ✓ Pick64.6%
market71%
X · draw21.6%
market19%
2 · Cremonese13.9%
market10%

Model estimate: win Napoli 64.6%, draw 21.6%, win Cremonese 13.9%. Model favourite — Napoli.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Napoli - Cremonese April 24, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Napoli.

Strongest: Napoli - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.33 / X 4.91 / 2 9.85
  • 1X2 market: Napoli 71.1% / X 19.3% / Cremonese 9.7%
  • Glicko: Napoli 64.6% / X 21.6% / Cremonese 13.9%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 41.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.7%
1 ✓ Pick 71.1%
X 19.3%
2 9.6%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.0%
Over 2.5 50.1%
Under 2.5 49.9%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 8/8
Confidence 70.8%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 24.04.2026 18:45 UTC
Stadium Diego Armando Maradona (Neapol)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Napoli 65%
💹 Market Napoli 7105%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Napoli - Cremonese

Napoli: Win 1.33 Napoli: Draw 5.00 Cremonese Win: 10.00 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.91 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.91 Individualnyy total golov Napoli bolshe 1.5: 1.53 Individualnyy total golov Napoli menshe 1.5: 2.38 Individualnyy total golov Cremonese bolshe …

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 4:0
Events 14
Statistics 22
Lineups 46
min Event Player Team
3' 3' Normal Goal | S. McTominay | assist/sub out: K. De Bruyne K. Ajer Napoli
45' 45' Normal Goal | K. De Bruyne M. Salah Napoli
45' 45' Own Goal | Filippo Terracciano Napoli
46' 46' Substitution 1 | Warren Bondo | assist/sub out: Alberto Grassi Cremonese
46' 46' Substitution 2 | David Okereke | assist/sub out: J. Vandeputte Cremonese
46' 46' Substitution 3 | Romano Floriani Mussolini | assist/sub out: Alessio Zerbin Cremonese
52' 52' Normal Goal | Alisson Santos | assist/sub out: V. Milinkovic-Savic Napoli
53' 53' Substitution 3 | M. Politano | assist/sub out: Pasquale Mazzocchi Napoli
Metric Napoli Cremonese SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 3.16 0.28 final
Zablokirovannye udary 6 2 final
Shots off target 10 1 final
Shots on target 9 4 final
Udary vsego 25 7 final
Fouls soversheno 7 11 final
Offsides 2 0 final
Ball possession, % 56 44 final
Napoli #3 Miguel Gutiérrez, #4 A. Buongiorno, #8 S. McTominay, #11 K. De Bruyne, #13 Amir Rrahmani, #17 M. Olivera, #19 Rasmus Højlund, #21 M. Politano, #27 Alisson Santos, #32 V. Milinkovic-Savic, #68 S. Lobotka
Cremonese #1 Emil Audero, #3 Giuseppe Pezzella, #5 Sebastiano Luperto, #6 F. Baschirotto, #22 Romano Floriani Mussolini, #24 Filippo Terracciano, #29 Youssef Maleh, #32 M. Payero, #38 W. Bondo, #77 David Okereke, #90 Federico Bonazzoli
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Buongiorno Napoli football.player.assists 0
A. Buongiorno Napoli Dribling popytki 4
A. Buongiorno Napoli Edinoborstva vyigrano 7
A. Buongiorno Napoli Fouls soversheno 1
A. Buongiorno Napoli Seyvy 0
A. Buongiorno Napoli football.player.minutes_played 90
A. Buongiorno Napoli Tochnost pasov % 1
A. Buongiorno Napoli Klyuchevye pasy 61
A. Buongiorno Napoli Reyting (staryy) 6.9
A. Buongiorno Napoli Bloki 3
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Napoli 72.9% 64.6% market and model agree
Draw 18.8% 21.6% draw risk
Cremonese 8.3% 13.9%
xG - 1.87 : 0.73
Total 2.5 Over 41.6% - Under 58.4%
Model check - - Difference 0.08
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.08

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 64.6% / 21.6% / 13.9% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,631 / 1,412 Napoli / Cremonese
RD 74 / 72 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 9.31 market consensus · no value · model 13.9%
X 4.91 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.33 market consensus · no value · model 64.6%
Double chance
X2 3.25 market consensus · no value · model 35.4%
12 1.16 market consensus · no value · model 78.4%
1X 1.05 market consensus · no value · model 86.2%
Handicap
2 -0.5 3.31 market consensus · line only
2 -1 2.50 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.32 market consensus · line only
1 -1 1.51 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.90 market consensus · no value · model 41.6%
Under 2.5 1.91 market consensus · value +11.6% · model 58.4%
Both teams to score
No 1.57 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.29 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
1.32 75.8% 1.37 73.0% 1.33 75.2% 1.33 75.2% 1.35 74.1% 1.30 76.9%
X 4.70 21.3% 5.26 19.0% 4.75 21.1% 5.00 20.0% 4.80 20.8% 5.00 20.0%
10.00 10.0% 10.40 9.6% 8.50 11.8% 10.00 10.0% 9.75 10.3% 12.00 8.3%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 1.57 63.7% 1.56 64.1% 1.60 62.5% 1.57 63.7% 1.57 63.7% 1.57 63.7% 1.53 65.4% 1.55 64.5% 1.58 63.3%
yes 2.30 43.5% 2.29 43.7% 2.30 43.5% 2.25 44.4% 2.30 43.5% 2.30 43.5% 2.30 43.5% 2.29 43.7% 2.28 43.9%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 3.25 30.8% 3.38 29.6% 3.10 32.3% 3.25 30.8% 3.30 30.3% 3.40 29.4%
home_away 1.17 85.5% 1.20 83.3% 1.18 84.8% 1.18 84.8% 1.17 85.5% 1.14 87.7%
home_draw 1.04 96.2% 1.06 94.3% 1.06 94.3% 1.05 95.2% 1.08 92.6% 1.04 96.2%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.05 95.2% 1.00 100.0%
Over 0.75 — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0 — 1.02 98.0%
Over 1.25 — 1.14 87.7%
Over 1.5 1.28 78.1% 1.26 79.4%
Over 1.75 — 1.33 75.2%
Over 2.0 — 1.42 70.4%
Over 2.25 — 1.65 60.6%
Over 2.5 1.85 54.1% —
Over 3.5 3.20 31.3% —
Over 4.5 6.25 16.0% —
Under 0.5 9.00 11.1% —
Under 1.5 3.50 28.6% —
Under 2.5 1.90 52.6% —
Under 3.5 1.33 75.2% —
Under 4.5 1.11 90.1% —
Match center
Napoli
Founded 1904
Cremonese
Founded 1903
Match center
Napoli
L D W W W
18.04 16:00 UTC Serie A
Napoli 0:2 LazioLazio
12.04 13:00 UTC Serie A
Napoli 1:1 ParmaParma
06.04 18:45 UTC Serie A
Napoli 1:0 AC MilanAC Milan
20.03 17:30 UTC Serie A
Napoli 1:0 CagliariCagliari
14.03 17:00 UTC Serie A
Napoli 2:1 LecceLecce
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
1.0 Scored
0.8 Conceded
10 Points
Cremonese
D L L W L
19.04 10:30 UTC Serie A
Cremonese 0:0 TorinoTorino
11.04 13:00 UTC Serie A
Cremonese 0:1 CagliariCagliari
05.04 13:00 UTC Serie A
Cremonese 1:2 BolognaBologna
21.03 14:00 UTC Serie A
Cremonese 2:0 ParmaParma
16.03 19:45 UTC Serie A
Cremonese 1:4 FiorentinaFiorentina
1 Wins
1 Draws
3 Losses
0.8 Scored
1.4 Conceded
4 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyNapoli - Cremonese

Napoli
1 matches total
Cremonese
Napoli: 1 (100%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Cremonese: 0 (0%)
Biggest win Napoli 2:0 (28.12 14:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 2 goals (2:0, 28.12 14:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

2 Goals scored 0
0 Goals conceded 2

Match history

28.12 14:00 UTC Serie A
Napoli
2:0
Cremonese
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.