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Serie A Italy

18.04.2026 16:00 UTC Match prediction

18.04.2026 16:00 UTC

Finished

Serie A

Napoli - Lazio

Italy Football

Stadium Diego Armando Maradona

Napoli

0 : 2

Finished

Lazio

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Napoli — 52%

1 · Napoli52.5%

X · draw26.8%

2 · Lazio20.7%

Model estimate: win Napoli 52.5%, draw 26.8%, win Lazio 20.7%. Model favourite — Napoli.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Napoli - Lazio April 18, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Napoli.

Strongest: Napoli - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.54 / X 3.86 / 2 6.94
1X2 market: Napoli 61.7% / X 24.6% / Lazio 13.7%
Glicko: Napoli 52.5% / X 26.8% / Lazio 20.7%
Total 2.5: over probability 34.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.3%

1 61.7%

X 24.6%

2 13.7%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.2%

Over 2.5 43.4%

Under 2.5 56.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome

Agreement 4/4

Confidence 57.9%

Total Under 2.5

Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center

Start 18.04.2026 16:00 UTC

Stadium Diego Armando Maradona (Neapol)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Napoli 52%

💹 Market Napoli 6167%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Napoli - Lazio

Napoli: Win 1.50 Napoli: Draw 4.00 Lazio Win: 7.00 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.20 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.67 Individualnyy total golov Napoli bolshe 1.5: 1.80 Individualnyy total golov Napoli menshe 1.5: 1.91 Individualnyy total golov Lazio bolshe 0.5: 1.91…

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 0:2

Events 17

Statistics 24

Lineups 46

min Event Player Team

6' 6' Normal Goal | Matteo Cancellieri | assist/sub out: Kenneth Taylor Lazio

29' 29' Yellow Card | Stanislav Lobotka Napoli

31' 31' Missed Penalty | Mattia Zaccagni | assist/sub out: Mattia Zaccagni Lazio

33' 33' Yellow Card | Danilo Cataldi Matteo Cancellieri Lazio

46' 46' Substitution 1 | Frank Anguissa | assist/sub out: Alisson Santos M. Klein Napoli

46' 46' Substitution 2 | Kevin De Bruyne | assist/sub out: Eljif Elmas M. Salah Napoli

57' 57' Normal Goal | Toma Bašić | assist/sub out: Matteo Cancellieri C. Rivero Lazio

60' 60' Yellow Card | Kenneth Taylor Lazio

Metric Napoli Lazio SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 0.51 2.27 final

Zablokirovannye udary 4 1 final

Shots off target 8 6 final

Shots on target 0 7 final

Udary vsego 12 14 final

Fouls soversheno 11 9 final

Zheltye kartochki 1 3 final

Offsides 2 0 final

Napoli #10 M. Zaccagni, #13 Alessio Romagnoli, #14 Tijjani Noslin, #17 N. Tavares, #22 Matteo Cancellieri, #24 K. Taylor, #26 Toma Bašić, #29 Manuel Lazzari, #32 D. Cataldi, #34 Mario Gila, #40 E. Motta

Lazio #4 A. Buongiorno, #8 S. McTominay, #11 K. De Bruyne, #17 M. Olivera, #19 Rasmus Højlund, #21 M. Politano, #31 Sam Beukema, #32 V. Milinkovic-Savic, #37 L. Spinazzola, #68 S. Lobotka, #99 Frank Anguissa

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Przyborek Napoli Seyvy 0

Alessio Romagnoli Napoli football.player.assists 0

Alessio Romagnoli Napoli Dribling popytki 2

Alessio Romagnoli Napoli Edinoborstva vsego 1

Alessio Romagnoli Napoli Edinoborstva vyigrano 2

Alessio Romagnoli Napoli Seyvy 0

Alessio Romagnoli Napoli football.player.minutes_played 90

Alessio Romagnoli Napoli Klyuchevye pasy 24

Alessio Romagnoli Napoli Reyting (staryy) 7.3

Alessio Romagnoli Napoli Perekhvaty 1

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Napoli 62.3% 52.5% market and model agree

Draw 24.1% 26.8% draw risk

Lazio 13.5% 20.7%

xG - 1.45 : 0.80

Total 2.5 Over 34.2% - Under 65.9%

Model check - - Difference 0.10

Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.10

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 52.5% / 26.8% / 20.7% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,651 / 1,534 Napoli / Lazio

RD 75 / 71 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 6.94 market consensus · no value · model 20.7%

X 3.86 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.54 market consensus · no value · model 52.5%

Double chance

X2 2.46 market consensus · weak value +16.9% · model 47.5%

12 1.24 market consensus · no value · model 73.2%

1X 1.10 market consensus · no value · model 79.3%

Handicap

2 -0.5 2.52 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.89 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 6.08 market consensus · line only

1 -0.5 1.51 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 2.19 market consensus · no value · model 34.2%

Under 2.5 1.68 market consensus · value +10.6% · model 65.9%

Both teams to score

No 1.61 market consensus · line only

Yes 2.23 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	1.50 66.7%	1.65 60.6%	1.58 63.3%	1.53 65.4%	1.53 65.4%	1.60 62.5%
X	3.80 26.3%	3.75 26.7%	4.00 25.0%	3.60 27.8%	3.90 25.6%	3.90 25.6%
	7.10 14.1%	5.90 17.0%	7.41 13.5%	6.50 15.4%	7.00 14.3%	7.20 13.9%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet
no	1.57 63.7%	1.67 59.9%	1.60 62.5%	1.62 61.7%	1.62 61.7%	1.62 61.7%	1.60 62.5%	1.60 62.5%	1.58 63.3%
yes	2.30 43.5%	2.22 45.1%	2.23 44.8%	2.25 44.4%	2.20 45.5%	2.22 45.1%	2.25 44.4%	2.20 45.5%	2.23 44.8%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	2.50 40.0%	2.53 39.5%	2.38 42.0%	2.38 42.0%	2.47 40.5%	2.40 41.7%
home_away	1.20 83.3%	1.29 77.5%	1.25 80.0%	1.25 80.0%	1.25 80.0%	1.22 82.0%
home_draw	1.09 91.7%	1.12 89.3%	1.11 90.1%	1.11 90.1%	1.13 88.5%	1.07 93.5%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	1.07 93.5%	—	1.03 97.1%
Over 0.75	—	—	1.05 95.2%
Over 1.0	—	—	1.07 93.5%
Over 1.25	—	—	1.22 82.0%
Over 1.5	1.40 71.4%	—	1.36 73.5%
Over 1.75	—	—	1.46 68.5%
Over 2.25	—	2.02 49.5%	—
Over 2.5	2.20 45.5%	—	—
Over 3.5	4.20 23.8%	—	—
Over 4.5	8.00 12.5%	—	—
Under 0.5	8.00 12.5%	—	—
Under 1.5	2.90 34.5%	—	—
Under 2.25	—	1.88 53.2%	—
Under 2.5	1.65 60.6%	—	—
Under 3.5	1.22 82.0%	—	—
Under 4.5	1.07 93.5%	—	—

Match center

Napoli

Founded 1904

Lazio

Founded 1900

Match center

Napoli

D W W W W

12.04 13:00 UTC Serie A

Napoli 1:1 Parma

06.04 18:45 UTC Serie A

Napoli 1:0 AC Milan

20.03 17:30 UTC Serie A

Napoli 1:0 Cagliari

14.03 17:00 UTC Serie A

Napoli 2:1 Lecce

06.03 19:45 UTC Serie A

Napoli 2:1 Torino

4 Wins

1 Draws

0 Losses

1.4 Scored

0.6 Conceded

13 Points

Lazio

L D W W W

13.04 18:45 UTC Serie A

Lazio 0:1 Fiorentina

04.04 18:45 UTC Serie A

Lazio 1:1 Parma

22.03 14:00 UTC Serie A

Lazio 2:0 Bologna

15.03 19:45 UTC Serie A

Lazio 1:0 AC Milan

09.03 19:45 UTC Serie A

Lazio 2:1 Sassuolo

3 Wins

1 Draws

1 Losses

1.2 Scored

0.6 Conceded

10 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyNapoli - Lazio

Napoli

1 matches total

Lazio

Napoli: 1 (100%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Lazio: 0 (0%)

Biggest win Napoli 2:0 (04.01 11:30 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 2 goals (2:0, 04.01 11:30 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

2 Goals scored 0

0 Goals conceded 2

Match history

04.01 11:30 UTC

Serie A

Napoli

2:0

Lazio

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.