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Serie A Italy

14.03.2026 17:00 UTC Match prediction

14.03.2026 17:00 UTC

Finished

Serie A

Napoli - Lecce

Italy Football

Napoli

2 : 1

Finished

Lecce

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Napoli - Lecce March 14, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Napoli.

Line favourite market consensus: Napoli. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.41 / X 4.52 / 2 9.20
1X2 market: Napoli 68.2% / X 21.3% / Lecce 10.5%
Total 2.5: over probability 56.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 3.9%

1 68.2%

X 21.3%

2 10.5%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 3.5%

Over 2.5 44.1%

Under 2.5 55.9%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 14.03.2026 17:00 UTC

Match center

Napoli - Lecce

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 3 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 9.26 market consensus · line only

X 4.53 market consensus · line only

1 1.41 market consensus · line only

Double chance

X2 3.03 market consensus · line only

12 1.22 market consensus · line only

1X 1.08 market consensus · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 2.97 market consensus · line only

2 -1 2.23 market consensus · line only

1 -0.5 1.41 market consensus · line only

1 -1 1.67 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 2.19 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 1.73 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.48 market consensus · line only

Yes 2.54 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	1.42 70.4%
X	4.60 21.7%
	9.70 10.3%

Match Winner

Outcome	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Marathonbet	Pinnacle	SStats Consensus
	1.41 70.9%	1.44 69.4%	1.40 71.4%	1.40 71.4%	1.42 70.4%	1.42 70.4%
X	4.50 22.2%	4.66 21.5%	4.50 22.2%	4.55 22.0%	4.60 21.7%	4.60 21.7%
	9.00 11.1%	9.60 10.4%	8.50 11.8%	9.40 10.6%	9.70 10.3%	9.70 10.3%

Both teams to score

Outcome	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Marathonbet	Pinnacle	William Hill
no	1.52 65.8%	1.49 67.1%	1.44 69.4%	1.48 67.6%	1.53 65.4%	1.44 69.4%
yes	2.56 39.1%	2.46 40.7%	2.62 38.2%	2.46 40.7%	2.64 37.9%	2.50 40.0%

Double chance

Outcome	1xBet	Bet365	Marathonbet	Pinnacle	SStats Consensus	William Hill
draw_away	3.04 32.9%	3.00 33.3%	3.08 32.5%	3.08 32.5%	3.08 32.5%	2.90 34.5%
home_away	1.23 81.3%	1.18 84.8%	1.22 82.0%	1.24 80.7%	1.24 80.7%	1.20 83.3%
home_draw	1.07 93.5%	1.08 92.6%	1.07 93.5%	1.09 91.7%	1.09 91.7%	1.07 93.5%

Match center

Napoli

W W L D W

06.03 19:45 UTC Serie A

Napoli 2:1 Torino

28.02 17:00 UTC Serie A

Napoli 2:1 Hellas Verona

22.02 14:00 UTC Serie A

Napoli 1:2 Atalanta

15.02 19:45 UTC Serie A

Napoli 2:2 AS Roma

07.02 17:00 UTC Serie A

Napoli 3:2 Genoa

3 Wins

1 Draws

1 Losses

2.0 Scored

1.6 Conceded

10 Points

Lecce

W L L W W

08.03 11:30 UTC Serie A

Lecce 2:1 Cremonese

28.02 14:00 UTC Serie A

Lecce 1:3 Como

21.02 17:00 UTC Serie A

Lecce 0:2 Inter

16.02 19:45 UTC Serie A

Lecce 2:0 Cagliari

08.02 14:00 UTC Serie A

Lecce 2:1 Udinese

3 Wins

0 Draws

2 Losses

1.4 Scored

1.4 Conceded

9 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyNapoli - Lecce

Napoli

3 matches total

Lecce

Napoli: 3 (100%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Lecce: 0 (0%)

Biggest win Napoli 1:0 (28.10 17:30 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 1 goals (1:0, 28.10 17:30 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

3 Goals scored 0

0 Goals conceded 3

Match history

28.10 17:30 UTC

Serie A

Napoli

1:0

Lecce

03.05 16:00 UTC

Serie A

Napoli

1:0

Lecce

26.10 13:00 UTC

Serie A

Napoli

1:0

Lecce