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Serie A
Serie A Italy
14.01.2026 17:30 UTC Match prediction
14.01.2026 17:30 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Napoli - Parma

Italy Football
Napoli
Napoli
0 : 0
Finished
Parma
Parma

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Napoli - Parma January 14, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Napoli.

Line favourite market consensus: Napoli. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.33 / X 5.13 / 2 10.22
  • 1X2 market: Napoli 72.0% / X 18.6% / Parma 9.4%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 53.1%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.5%
1 72.0%
X 18.7%
2 9.4%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.6%
Over 2.5 53.1%
Under 2.5 46.9%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 14.01.2026 17:30 UTC
Match center

Napoli - Parma

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
X 5.13 market consensus · line only
1 1.33 market consensus · line only
2 9.48 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 3.44 market consensus · line only
12 1.17 market consensus · line only
1X 1.06 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 3.38 market consensus · line only
2 -1 2.59 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 8.30 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.32 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.80 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.04 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.64 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.20 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.33 75.2%
X 5.23 19.1%
10.79 9.3%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair
1.34 74.6% 1.34 74.6% 1.35 74.1% 1.33 75.2% 1.35 74.1% 1.30 76.9%
X 4.90 20.4% 5.30 18.9% 5.38 18.6% 5.00 20.0% 5.10 19.6% 5.00 20.0%
9.40 10.6% 9.50 10.5% 11.10 9.0% 9.50 10.5% 11.00 9.1% 10.50 9.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle Superbet
no 1.65 60.6% 1.69 59.2% 1.62 61.7% 1.62 61.7% 1.65 60.6% 1.62 61.7% 1.60 62.5% 1.69 59.2% 1.64 61.0%
yes 2.15 46.5% 2.19 45.7% 2.19 45.7% 2.20 45.5% 2.15 46.5% 2.20 45.5% 2.19 45.7% 2.26 44.3% 2.22 45.1%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Marathonbet Pinnacle
draw_away 3.20 31.3% 3.50 28.6% 3.40 29.4% 3.40 29.4% 3.52 28.4% 3.63 27.6%
home_away 1.17 85.5% 1.19 84.0% 1.17 85.5% 1.17 85.5% 1.18 84.8% 1.19 84.0%
home_draw 1.05 95.2% 1.06 94.3% 1.06 94.3% 1.07 93.5% 1.06 94.3% 1.07 93.5%
Match center
Napoli
D D W W L
11.01 19:45 UTC Serie A
Napoli 2:2 InterInter
07.01 17:30 UTC Serie A
Napoli 2:2 Hellas VeronaHellas Verona
04.01 11:30 UTC Serie A
Napoli 2:0 LazioLazio
28.12 14:00 UTC Serie A
Napoli 2:0 CremoneseCremonese
14.12 14:00 UTC Serie A
Napoli 0:1 UdineseUdinese
2 Wins
2 Draws
1 Losses
1.6 Scored
1.0 Conceded
8 Points
Parma
W L D W L
11.01 11:30 UTC Serie A
Parma 2:1 LecceLecce
07.01 19:45 UTC Serie A
Parma 0:2 InterInter
03.01 14:00 UTC Serie A
Parma 1:1 SassuoloSassuolo
27.12 11:30 UTC Serie A
Parma 1:0 FiorentinaFiorentina
13.12 17:00 UTC Serie A
Parma 0:1 LazioLazio
2 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
0.8 Scored
1.0 Conceded
7 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyNapoli - Parma

Napoli
1 matches total
Parma
Napoli: 0 (0%)
Draws:1 (100%)
Parma: 0 (0%)
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw 0:0 (18.05 18:45 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0
0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

18.05 18:45 UTC Serie A
Napoli
0:0
Parma