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Serie A
Serie A Italy
22.09.2025 18:45 UTC Match prediction
22.09.2025 18:45 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Napoli - Pisa

Italy Football
Napoli
Napoli
3 : 2
Finished
Pisa
Pisa

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Napoli - Pisa September 22, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Napoli.

Line favourite market consensus: Napoli. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.30 / X 5.27 / 2 11.20
  • 1X2 market: Napoli 73.4% / X 18.1% / Pisa 8.6%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 50.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.8%
1 73.4%
X 18.1%
2 8.5%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.2%
Over 2.5 50.8%
Under 2.5 49.2%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 22.09.2025 18:45 UTC
Match center

Napoli - Pisa

Form 5/3 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
X 5.29 market consensus · line only
1 1.30 market consensus · line only
2 9.88 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 3.58 market consensus · line only
12 1.17 market consensus · line only
1X 1.05 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 3.53 market consensus · line only
2 -1 2.75 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 8.60 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.31 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.89 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.95 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.54 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.41 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.29 77.5%
X 5.48 18.3%
12.83 7.8%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
1.27 78.7% 1.32 75.8% 1.32 75.8% 1.29 77.5% 1.30 76.9% 1.34 74.6%
X 5.40 18.5% 5.30 18.9% 5.67 17.6% 5.00 20.0% 5.25 19.1% 5.40 18.5%
11.50 8.7% 10.50 9.5% 12.30 8.1% 11.00 9.1% 10.00 10.0% 11.00 9.1%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 1.53 65.4% 1.56 64.1% 1.51 66.2% 1.57 63.7% 1.50 66.7% 1.53 65.4% 1.53 65.4% 1.50 66.7% 1.56 64.1%
yes 2.35 42.6% 2.46 40.7% 2.41 41.5% 2.30 43.5% 2.50 40.0% 2.40 41.7% 2.38 42.0% 2.41 41.5% 2.56 39.1%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 3.35 29.9% 3.72 26.9% 3.60 27.8% 3.40 29.4% 3.50 28.6% 3.70 27.0%
home_away 1.15 87.0% 1.18 84.8% 1.17 85.5% 1.17 85.5% 1.16 86.2% 1.16 86.2%
home_draw 1.05 95.2% 1.05 95.2% 1.05 95.2% 1.06 94.3% 1.07 93.5% 1.04 96.2%
Match center
Napoli
W W W W D
13.09 18:45 UTC Serie A
Napoli 3:1 FiorentinaFiorentina
30.08 18:45 UTC Serie A
Napoli 1:0 CagliariCagliari
23.08 16:30 UTC Serie A
Napoli 2:0 SassuoloSassuolo
23.05 18:45 UTC Serie A
Napoli 2:0 CagliariCagliari
18.05 18:45 UTC Serie A
Napoli 0:0 ParmaParma
4 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
1.6 Scored
0.2 Conceded
13 Points
Pisa
L L D
14.09 13:00 UTC Serie A
Pisa 0:1 UdineseUdinese
30.08 18:45 UTC Serie A
Pisa 0:1 AS RomaAS Roma
24.08 18:45 UTC Serie A
Pisa 1:1 AtalantaAtalanta
0 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
0.3 Scored
1.0 Conceded
1 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyNapoli - Pisa

Napoli
0 matches total
Pisa
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history