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Serie A Italy

21.03.2026 14:00 UTC Match prediction

21.03.2026 14:00 UTC

Finished

Serie A

Parma - Cremonese

Italy Football

Stadium Stadio Ennio Tardini

Referee Michael Fabbri

Capacity 21 473

Parma

0 : 2

Finished

Cremonese

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Parma — 39%

1 · Parma39.2%

X · draw28.9%

2 · Cremonese31.9%

Model estimate: win Parma 39.2%, draw 28.9%, win Cremonese 31.9%. Model favourite — Parma.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Parma - Cremonese March 21, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Parma.

Strongest: Parma - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.21 / X 3.06 / 2 3.64
1X2 market: Parma 42.9% / X 31.0% / Cremonese 26.1%
Glicko: Parma 39.2% / X 28.9% / Cremonese 31.9%
Total 2.5: over probability 41.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.4%

1 42.9%

X 31.0%

2 26.1%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.7%

Over 2.5 42.8%

Under 2.5 57.2%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome

Agreement 3/4

Confidence 41.6%

Total Under 2.5

Score 1:1

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center

Start 21.03.2026 14:00 UTC

Stadium Stadio Ennio Tardini (Parma)

Referee Michael Fabbri

Capacity 21,473

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🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Parma 39%

💹 Market Parma 4291%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Parma - Cremonese

Parma: Win 2.33 Parma: Draw 3.06 Cremonese Win: 3.68 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.31 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.68 Individualnyy total golov Parma bolshe 1.5: 2.48 Individualnyy total golov Parma menshe 1.5: 1.57 Individualnyy total golov Cremonese bolshe 0.5: …

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 0:2

Events 17

Statistics 24

Lineups 87

min Event Player Team

46' 46' Substitution 3 | Alessio Zerbin | assist/sub out: Tommaso Barbieri Alessio Zerbin Cremonese

50' 50' Yellow Card | Tommaso Barbieri Tommaso Barbieri Cremonese

54' 54' Normal Goal | Youssef Maleh Youssef Maleh Cremonese

60' 60' Substitution 3 | A. Circati | assist/sub out: Hans Nicolussi Caviglia Alessandro Circati Parma

60' 60' Substitution 4 | A. Circati | assist/sub out: Hans Nicolussi Caviglia Alessandro Circati Parma

66' 66' Yellow Card | J. Ondrejka J. Ondrejka Parma

67' 67' Substitution 5 | Federico Bonazzoli | assist/sub out: M. Payero Federico Bonazzoli Cremonese

67' 67' Substitution 6 | A. Sanabria | assist/sub out: Jamie Vardy Antonio Sanabria Cremonese

Metric Parma Cremonese SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 0.36 0.79 final

Zablokirovannye udary 3 1 final

Shots off target 4 2 final

Shots on target 1 4 final

Udary vsego 8 7 final

Fouls soversheno 20 15 final

Zheltye kartochki 3 3 final

Offsides 0 3 final

Parma #1 Emil Audero, #3 Giuseppe Pezzella, #5 Sebastiano Luperto, #7 Alessio Zerbin, #15 Matteo Bianchetti, #24 Filippo Terracciano, #27 Jari Vandeputte, #29 Youssef Maleh, #33 Alberto Grassi, #90 Federico Bonazzoli, #99 Antonio Sanabria

Cremonese #5 Lautaro Valenti, #7 G. Strefezza, #9 Mateo Pellegrino, #14 Emanuele Valeri, #16 Mandela Keita, #17 J. Ondrejka, #22 Oliver Sørensen, #27 Sascha Britschgi, #31 Zion Suzuki, #37 Mariano Troilo, #39 Alessandro Circati

Player Team Metric SStats

Abdoulaye Ndiaye Cremonese Seyvy 0

Alberto Grassi Cremonese football.player.assists 0

Alberto Grassi Cremonese football.player.minutes_played 90

Alessandro Circati Cremonese Dribling popytki 5

Alessandro Circati Cremonese Edinoborstva vsego 2

Alessandro Circati Cremonese Edinoborstva vyigrano 8

Alessandro Circati Cremonese Fouls soversheno 1

Alessandro Circati Cremonese Seyvy 0

Alessandro Circati Cremonese Klyuchevye pasy 27

Alessandro Circati Cremonese Reyting (staryy) 6.2

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Parma 42.4% 39.2% market and model agree

Draw 31.8% 28.9% draw risk

Cremonese 25.9% 31.9%

xG - 1.18 : 1.03

Total 2.5 Over 41.7% - Under 58.4%

Model check - - Difference 0.06

Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.06

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 39.2% / 28.9% / 31.9% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,477 / 1,407 Parma / Cremonese

RD 75 / 75 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 3.69 market consensus · no value · model 31.9%

X 3.05 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 2.21 market consensus · no value · model 39.2%

Double chance

X2 1.66 market consensus · no value · model 60.8%

12 1.36 market consensus · no value · model 71.1%

1X 1.29 market consensus · no value · model 68.1%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.71 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.30 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 3.54 market consensus · line only

2 +1 6.85 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 2.23 market consensus · no value · model 41.7%

Under 2.5 1.67 market consensus · no value · model 58.4%

Both teams to score

No 1.87 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.89 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	2.19 45.7%
X	2.91 34.4%
	4.29 23.3%

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	2.16 46.3%	2.28 43.9%	2.31 43.3%	2.15 46.5%	2.15 46.5%	2.15 46.5%
X	3.05 32.8%	3.10 32.3%	3.11 32.2%	3.10 32.3%	3.10 32.3%	3.10 32.3%
	3.60 27.8%	3.60 27.8%	3.82 26.2%	3.40 29.4%	3.80 26.3%	3.75 26.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet
no	1.90 52.6%	1.94 51.6%	1.83 54.6%	1.80 55.6%	1.91 52.4%	1.90 52.6%	1.87 53.5%	1.85 54.1%	1.81 55.3%
yes	1.85 54.1%	1.87 53.5%	1.89 52.9%	1.91 52.4%	1.91 52.4%	1.85 54.1%	1.87 53.5%	1.87 53.5%	1.89 52.9%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.65 60.6%	1.69 59.2%	1.67 59.9%	1.67 59.9%	1.72 58.1%	1.62 61.7%
home_away	1.30 76.9%	1.42 70.4%	1.33 75.2%	1.36 73.5%	1.35 74.1%	1.30 76.9%
home_draw	1.28 78.1%	1.31 76.3%	1.30 76.9%	1.25 80.0%	1.29 77.5%	1.29 77.5%

Match center

Parma

Founded 1913

Cremonese

Founded 1903

Match center

Parma

AB Adrián Bernabé Muscle Injury

ED E. Del Prato Yellow Cards

Cremonese

MC M. Collocolo Injury

FB F. Baschirotto Muscle Injury

Parma Founded: 1913

Cremonese Founded: 1903

Match center

Parma

L D D W W

13.03 19:45 UTC Serie A

Parma 1:4 Torino

08.03 14:00 UTC Serie A

Parma 0:0 Fiorentina

27.02 19:45 UTC Serie A

Parma 1:1 Cagliari

22.02 17:00 UTC Serie A

Parma 1:0 AC Milan

15.02 14:00 UTC Serie A

Parma 2:1 Hellas Verona

2 Wins

2 Draws

1 Losses

1.0 Scored

1.2 Conceded

8 Points

Cremonese

L L L L D

16.03 19:45 UTC Serie A

Cremonese 1:4 Fiorentina

08.03 11:30 UTC Serie A

Cremonese 1:2 Lecce

01.03 11:30 UTC Serie A

Cremonese 0:2 AC Milan

22.02 19:45 UTC Serie A

Cremonese 0:3 AS Roma

15.02 14:00 UTC Serie A

Cremonese 0:0 Genoa

0 Wins

1 Draws

4 Losses

0.4 Scored

2.2 Conceded

1 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyParma - Cremonese

Parma

1 matches total

Cremonese

Parma: 0 (0%)

Draws:1 (100%)

Cremonese: 0 (0%)

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw 0:0 (21.09 13:00 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0

0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

21.09 13:00 UTC

Serie A

Parma

0:0

Cremonese

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.