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Serie A Italy

12.04.2026 13:00 UTC Match prediction

12.04.2026 13:00 UTC

Finished

Serie A

Parma - Napoli

Italy Football

Stadium Stadio Ennio Tardini

Capacity 21 473

Parma

1 : 1

Finished

Napoli

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Napoli — 54%

1 · Parma20.0%

X · draw25.7%

2 · Napoli54.3%

Model estimate: win Parma 20.0%, draw 25.7%, win Napoli 54.3%. Model favourite — Napoli.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Parma - Napoli April 12, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Napoli.

Strongest: Napoli - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 6.62 / X 3.82 / 2 1.57
1X2 market: Parma 14.4% / X 25.0% / Napoli 60.6%
Glicko: Parma 20.0% / X 25.7% / Napoli 54.3%
Total 2.5: over probability 26.4%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.0%

1 14.4%

X 24.9%

2 60.7%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.9%

Over 2.5 42.9%

Under 2.5 57.1%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 2

Main outcome

Agreement 4/4

Confidence 57.9%

Total Under 2.5

Score 0:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center

Start 12.04.2026 13:00 UTC

Stadium Stadio Ennio Tardini (Parma)

Capacity 21,473

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🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Napoli 54%

💹 Market Napoli 6061%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Parma - Napoli

Parma: Win 6.25 Parma: Draw 3.80 Napoli Win: 1.57 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.20 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.67 Individualnyy total golov Parma bolshe 0.5: 1.83 Individualnyy total golov Parma menshe 0.5: 1.83 Individualnyy total golov Napoli bolshe 1.5: 1.83 I…

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 1:1

Events 12

Statistics 24

Lineups 42

min Event Player Team

1' 1' Normal Goal | Gabriel Strefezza | assist/sub out: Nesta Elphege Parma

46' 46' Substitution 1 | Juan Jesus | assist/sub out: Sam Beukema K. Walker-Peters Napoli

56' 56' Substitution 2 | Frank Anguissa | assist/sub out: Alisson Santos M. Klein Napoli

59' 59' Substitution 1 | Nesta Elphege | assist/sub out: Oliver Sørensen Parma

60' 60' Normal Goal | Scott McTominay | assist/sub out: Rasmus Højlund K. Ajer Napoli

66' 66' Substitution 2 | Hans Nicolussi Caviglia | assist/sub out: Nahuel Estévez O. Edouard Parma

66' 66' Substitution 3 | Rasmus Højlund | assist/sub out: Giovane Napoli

67' 67' Substitution 3 | AdriGЎn BernabG© | assist/sub out: Christian OrdoG±ez Dominik Szoboszlai Parma

Metric Parma Napoli SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 0.19 1.22 final

Zablokirovannye udary 1 8 final

Shots off target 0 6 final

Shots on target 2 6 final

Udary vsego 3 20 final

Fouls soversheno 4 8 final

Zheltye kartochki 1 0 final

Offsides 2 2 final

Parma #4 A. Buongiorno, #5 Juan Jesus, #8 S. McTominay, #11 K. De Bruyne, #17 M. Olivera, #19 Rasmus Højlund, #21 M. Politano, #32 V. Milinkovic-Savic, #37 L. Spinazzola, #68 S. Lobotka, #99 Frank Anguissa

Napoli #5 Lautaro Valenti, #7 G. Strefezza, #10 A. Bernabe, #14 Emanuele Valeri, #15 Enrico Delprato, #16 Mandela Keita, #23 N. Elphege, #31 Zion Suzuki, #37 Mariano Troilo, #39 Alessandro Circati, #41 Hans Nicolussi Caviglia

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Bernabe Napoli football.player.assists 0

A. Bernabe Napoli Dribling popytki 2

A. Bernabe Napoli Dribling uspeshno 1

A. Bernabe Napoli Edinoborstva vsego 1

A. Bernabe Napoli Edinoborstva vyigrano 5

A. Bernabe Napoli Fouls soversheno 1

A. Bernabe Napoli Seyvy 0

A. Bernabe Napoli football.player.minutes_played 67

A. Bernabe Napoli Klyuchevye pasy 20

A. Bernabe Napoli Reyting (staryy) 6.5

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Parma 14.5% 20.0%

Draw 24.6% 25.7% draw risk

Napoli 60.9% 54.3% market and model agree

xG - 0.82 : 1.54

Total 2.5 Over 26.4% - Under 73.7%

Model check - - Difference 0.07

Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.07

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 20.0% / 25.7% / 54.3% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,465 / 1,657 Parma / Napoli

RD 74 / 76 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 1.57 market consensus · no value · model 54.3%

X 3.82 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 6.62 market consensus · no value · model 20.0%

Double chance

X2 1.12 market consensus · no value · model 80.0%

12 1.25 market consensus · no value · model 74.3%

1X 2.40 market consensus · weak value +9.6% · model 45.7%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.12 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.01 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 1.55 market consensus · line only

2 +1 2.00 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 2.22 market consensus · no value · model 26.4%

Under 2.5 1.67 market consensus · value +23.0% · model 73.7%

Both teams to score

No 1.62 market consensus · line only

Yes 2.21 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
	6.75 14.8%	6.60 15.2%	6.90 14.5%	6.50 15.4%	6.90 14.5%	6.50 15.4%
X	3.70 27.0%	3.85 26.0%	4.03 24.8%	3.90 25.6%	3.95 25.3%	3.70 27.0%
	1.54 64.9%	1.58 63.3%	1.61 62.1%	1.55 64.5%	1.60 62.5%	1.57 63.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	1.62 61.7%	1.64 61.0%	1.61 62.1%	1.62 61.7%	1.60 62.5%	1.62 61.7%	1.60 62.5%	1.59 62.9%	1.62 61.7%
yes	2.20 45.5%	2.28 43.9%	2.21 45.3%	2.20 45.5%	2.25 44.4%	2.20 45.5%	2.20 45.5%	2.21 45.3%	2.20 45.5%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor
draw_away	1.10 90.9%	1.14 87.7%	1.12 89.3%	1.13 88.5%	1.08 92.6%	1.13 88.5%
home_away	1.22 82.0%	1.29 77.5%	1.25 80.0%	1.25 80.0%	1.22 82.0%	1.18 84.8%
home_draw	2.40 41.7%	2.48 40.3%	2.30 43.5%	2.45 40.8%	2.40 41.7%	2.38 42.0%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	1.07 93.5%	—	1.02 98.0%
Over 0.75	—	—	1.04 96.2%
Over 1.0	—	—	1.06 94.3%
Over 1.25	—	—	1.21 82.6%
Over 1.5	1.40 71.4%	—	1.36 73.5%
Over 1.75	—	—	1.47 68.0%
Over 2.25	—	1.99 50.3%	—
Over 2.5	2.20 45.5%	—	—
Over 3.5	4.20 23.8%	—	—
Over 4.5	8.00 12.5%	—	—
Under 0.5	8.00 12.5%	—	—
Under 1.5	2.90 34.5%	—	—
Under 2.25	—	1.91 52.4%	—
Under 2.5	1.65 60.6%	—	—
Under 3.5	1.22 82.0%	—	—
Under 4.5	1.07 93.5%	—	—

Match center

Parma

Founded 1913

Napoli

Founded 1904

Match center

Parma

PA P. Almqvist Thigh Injury

MP Mateo Pellegrino Yellow Cards

Napoli

DN David Neres Ankle Injury

RL R. Lukaku Hip Injury

Parma Founded: 1913

Napoli Founded: 1904

Match center

Parma

D L L D D

04.04 18:45 UTC Serie A

Parma 1:1 Lazio

21.03 14:00 UTC Serie A

Parma 0:2 Cremonese

13.03 19:45 UTC Serie A

Parma 1:4 Torino

08.03 14:00 UTC Serie A

Parma 0:0 Fiorentina

27.02 19:45 UTC Serie A

Parma 1:1 Cagliari

0 Wins

3 Draws

2 Losses

0.6 Scored

1.6 Conceded

3 Points

Napoli

W W W W W

06.04 18:45 UTC Serie A

Napoli 1:0 AC Milan

20.03 17:30 UTC Serie A

Napoli 1:0 Cagliari

14.03 17:00 UTC Serie A

Napoli 2:1 Lecce

06.03 19:45 UTC Serie A

Napoli 2:1 Torino

28.02 17:00 UTC Serie A

Napoli 2:1 Hellas Verona

5 Wins

0 Draws

0 Losses

1.6 Scored

0.6 Conceded

15 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyParma - Napoli

Parma

2 matches total

Napoli

Parma: 0 (0%)

Draws:2 (100%)

Napoli: 0 (0%)

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw 0:0 (14.01 17:30 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0

0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

14.01 17:30 UTC

Serie A

Parma

0:0

Napoli

18.05 18:45 UTC

Serie A

Parma

0:0

Napoli

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.