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Serie A
Serie A Italy
25.04.2026 13:00 UTC Match prediction Prediction
25.04.2026 13:00 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Parma - Pisa

Italy Football
Stadium Stadio Ennio Tardini
Capacity 21 473
Parma
Parma
1 : 0
Finished
Pisa
Pisa
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Parma — 41%

1 · Parma41.4%
X · draw28.2%
2 · Pisa30.5%

Model estimate: win Parma 41.4%, draw 28.2%, win Pisa 30.5%. Model favourite — Parma.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Parma - Pisa April 25, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Parma.

Strongest: Parma - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.08 / X 3.21 / 2 3.74
  • 1X2 market: Parma 45.4% / X 29.4% / Pisa 25.3%
  • Glicko: Parma 41.4% / X 28.2% / Pisa 30.5%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 44.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.0%
1 45.4%
X 29.4%
2 25.2%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.2%
Over 2.5 41.3%
Under 2.5 58.7%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 3/4
Confidence 44.4%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:0

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center
Start 25.04.2026 13:00 UTC
Stadium Stadio Ennio Tardini (Parma)
Capacity 21,473

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Parma 41%
💹 Market Parma 4539%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Parma - Pisa

Parma: Win 2.10 Parma: Draw 3.20 Pisa Win: 3.80 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.30 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.62 Individualnyy total golov Parma bolshe 1.5: 2.38 Individualnyy total golov Parma menshe 1.5: 1.53 Individualnyy total golov Pisa bolshe 0.5: 1.53 Indiv…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:0
Events 14
Statistics 24
Lineups 48
min Event Player Team
18' 18' Yellow Card | Simone Canestrelli Pisa
44' 44' Yellow Card | Isak Vural Pisa
46' 46' Substitution 1 | Isak Vural | assist/sub out: Gabriele Piccinini Pisa
65' 65' Substitution 2 | Mehdi Léris | assist/sub out: Idrissa Touré Pisa
66' 66' Substitution 1 | Gabriel Strefezza | assist/sub out: Nesta Elphege Parma
66' 66' Substitution 3 | Filip Stojilković | assist/sub out: Henrik Wendel Meister Pisa
66' 66' Substitution 2 | Mandela Keita | assist/sub out: Christian OrdoG±ez Parma
78' 78' Substitution 3 | Adrián Bernabé | assist/sub out: Oliver Sørensen Dominik Szoboszlai Parma
Metric Parma Pisa SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.64 1.71 final
Zablokirovannye udary 7 2 final
Shots off target 3 7 final
Shots on target 5 3 final
Udary vsego 15 12 final
Fouls soversheno 10 19 final
Zheltye kartochki 1 2 final
Offsides 0 3 final
Parma #3 Abdoulaye Ndiaye, #7 G. Strefezza, #9 Mateo Pellegrino, #10 A. Bernabe, #14 Emanuele Valeri, #15 Enrico Delprato, #16 Mandela Keita, #31 Zion Suzuki, #37 Mariano Troilo, #39 Alessandro Circati, #41 Hans Nicolussi Caviglia
Pisa #1 Adrian Šemper, #2 R. Bozhinov, #3 Samuele Angori, #4 A. Caracciolo, #5 Simone Canestrelli, #7 Mehdi Léris, #14 E. Akinsanmiro, #20 M. Aebischer, #21 Isak Vural, #32 Stefano Moreo, #81 Filip Stojilković
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Caracciolo Pisa football.player.assists 0
A. Caracciolo Pisa Dribling popytki 1
A. Caracciolo Pisa Edinoborstva vsego 3
A. Caracciolo Pisa Edinoborstva vyigrano 5
A. Caracciolo Pisa Seyvy 0
A. Caracciolo Pisa football.player.minutes_played 90
A. Caracciolo Pisa Klyuchevye pasy 52
A. Caracciolo Pisa Pasy vsego 1
A. Caracciolo Pisa Reyting (staryy) 6.3
A. Caracciolo Pisa Shots on target 1
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Parma 45.5% 41.4% market and model agree
Draw 29.2% 28.2% draw risk
Pisa 25.3% 30.5%
xG - 1.26 : 1.04
Total 2.5 Over 44.3% - Under 55.7%
Model check - - Difference 0.05
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.05

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 41.4% / 28.2% / 30.5% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,484 / 1,378 Parma / Pisa
RD 72 / 75 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.74 market consensus · no value · model 30.5%
X 3.21 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.08 market consensus · no value · model 41.4%
Double chance
X2 1.75 market consensus · no value · model 58.6%
12 1.32 market consensus · no value · model 71.9%
1X 1.26 market consensus · no value · model 69.6%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.76 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.32 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 3.60 market consensus · line only
2 +1 7.90 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.30 market consensus · no value · model 44.3%
Under 2.5 1.62 market consensus · no value · model 55.7%
Both teams to score
No 1.79 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.96 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
2.00 50.0% 2.17 46.1% 2.05 48.8% 2.10 47.6% 2.12 47.2% 2.05 48.8%
X 3.20 31.3% 3.38 29.6% 3.10 32.3% 3.20 31.3% 3.20 31.3% 3.30 30.3%
3.85 26.0% 3.87 25.8% 3.60 27.8% 3.80 26.3% 3.75 26.7% 3.80 26.3%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 1.77 56.5% 1.77 56.5% 1.85 54.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.78 56.2% 1.80 55.6% 1.75 57.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.81 55.3%
yes 2.00 50.0% 1.96 51.0% 1.95 51.3% 2.00 50.0% 1.95 51.3% 1.95 51.3% 1.95 51.3% 1.96 51.0% 1.94 51.6%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.77 56.5% 1.77 56.5% 1.75 57.1% 1.70 58.8% 1.75 57.1% 1.73 57.8%
home_away 1.28 78.1% 1.37 73.0% 1.33 75.2% 1.36 73.5% 1.33 75.2% 1.30 76.9%
home_draw 1.25 80.0% 1.30 76.9% 1.25 80.0% 1.28 78.1% 1.29 77.5% 1.25 80.0%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.08 92.6% 1.03 97.1%
Over 0.75 — 1.04 96.2%
Over 1.0 — 1.07 93.5%
Over 1.25 — 1.23 81.3%
Over 1.5 1.42 70.4% 1.39 71.9%
Over 1.75 — 1.50 66.7%
Over 2.0 — 1.69 59.2%
Over 2.25 — 1.99 50.3%
Over 2.5 2.25 44.4% —
Over 3.5 4.33 23.1% —
Over 4.5 8.50 11.8% —
Under 0.5 7.50 13.3% —
Under 1.5 2.80 35.7% —
Under 2.5 1.62 61.7% —
Under 3.5 1.20 83.3% —
Under 4.5 1.06 94.3% —
Match center
Parma
Founded 1913
Pisa
Founded 1909
Match center
Parma
W D D L L
18.04 13:00 UTC Serie A
Parma 1:0 UdineseUdinese
12.04 13:00 UTC Serie A
Parma 1:1 NapoliNapoli
04.04 18:45 UTC Serie A
Parma 1:1 LazioLazio
21.03 14:00 UTC Serie A
Parma 0:2 CremoneseCremonese
13.03 19:45 UTC Serie A
Parma 1:4 TorinoTorino
1 Wins
2 Draws
2 Losses
0.8 Scored
1.6 Conceded
5 Points
Pisa
L L L L W
19.04 16:00 UTC Serie A
Pisa 1:2 GenoaGenoa
10.04 18:45 UTC Serie A
Pisa 0:3 AS RomaAS Roma
05.04 16:00 UTC Serie A
Pisa 0:1 TorinoTorino
22.03 11:30 UTC Serie A
Pisa 0:5 ComoComo
15.03 14:00 UTC Serie A
Pisa 3:1 CagliariCagliari
1 Wins
0 Draws
4 Losses
0.8 Scored
2.4 Conceded
3 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyParma - Pisa

Parma
1 matches total
Pisa
Parma: 1 (100%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Pisa: 0 (0%)
Biggest win Parma 1:0 (08.12 14:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 1 goals (1:0, 08.12 14:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 0
0 Goals conceded 1

Match history

08.12 14:00 UTC Serie A
Parma
1:0
Pisa
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.