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Serie A
Serie A Italy
28.09.2025 13:00 UTC Match prediction
28.09.2025 13:00 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Pisa - Fiorentina

Italy Football
Pisa
Pisa
0 : 0
Finished
Fiorentina
Fiorentina

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Pisa - Fiorentina September 28, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Fiorentina.

Line favourite market consensus: Fiorentina. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.60 / X 3.20 / 2 2.17
  • 1X2 market: Pisa 26.4% / X 29.8% / Fiorentina 43.8%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 57.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.1%
1 26.4%
X 29.7%
2 43.8%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.7%
Over 2.5 42.5%
Under 2.5 57.5%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 28.09.2025 13:00 UTC
Match center

Pisa - Fiorentina

Form 4/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.17 market consensus · line only
X 3.20 market consensus · line only
1 3.61 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.30 market consensus · line only
12 1.35 market consensus · line only
1X 1.69 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.31 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.09 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.16 market consensus · line only
2 +1 3.39 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.25 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.66 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.83 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.92 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
3.79 26.4%
X 3.27 30.6%
2.18 45.9%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
3.50 28.6% 3.85 26.0% 3.64 27.5% 3.50 28.6% 3.60 27.8% 3.60 27.8%
X 3.15 31.8% 3.20 31.3% 3.34 29.9% 3.10 32.3% 3.30 30.3% 3.20 31.3%
2.18 45.9% 2.12 47.2% 2.27 44.1% 2.15 46.5% 2.15 46.5% 2.18 45.9%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 1.83 54.6% 1.90 52.6% 1.82 55.0% 1.83 54.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.83 54.6% 1.83 54.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.91 52.4%
yes 1.85 54.1% 1.91 52.4% 1.90 52.6% 1.91 52.4% 1.95 51.3% 1.91 52.4% 1.91 52.4% 1.90 52.6% 1.96 51.0%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 1.30 76.9% 1.33 75.2% 1.30 76.9% 1.28 78.1% 1.31 76.3% 1.31 76.3%
home_away 1.30 76.9% 1.38 72.5% 1.36 73.5% 1.33 75.2% 1.34 74.6% 1.36 73.5%
home_draw 1.65 60.6% 1.71 58.5% 1.65 60.6% 1.67 59.9% 1.70 58.8% 1.69 59.2%
Match center
Pisa
L L L D
22.09 18:45 UTC Serie A
Pisa 2:3 NapoliNapoli
14.09 13:00 UTC Serie A
Pisa 0:1 UdineseUdinese
30.08 18:45 UTC Serie A
Pisa 0:1 AS RomaAS Roma
24.08 18:45 UTC Serie A
Pisa 1:1 AtalantaAtalanta
0 Wins
1 Draws
3 Losses
0.8 Scored
1.5 Conceded
1 Points
Fiorentina
L L D D W
21.09 16:00 UTC Serie A
Fiorentina 1:2 ComoComo
13.09 18:45 UTC Serie A
Fiorentina 1:3 NapoliNapoli
31.08 16:30 UTC Serie A
Fiorentina 0:0 TorinoTorino
24.08 16:30 UTC Serie A
Fiorentina 1:1 CagliariCagliari
25.05 18:45 UTC Serie A
Fiorentina 3:2 UdineseUdinese
1 Wins
2 Draws
2 Losses
1.2 Scored
1.6 Conceded
5 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyPisa - Fiorentina

Pisa
0 matches total
Fiorentina
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history