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Serie A
Serie A Italy
19.04.2026 16:00 UTC Match prediction
19.04.2026 16:00 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Pisa - Genoa

Italy Football
Stadium Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani
Capacity 17 500
Pisa
Pisa
1 : 2
Finished
Genoa
Genoa
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Genoa — 44%

1 · Pisa28.0%
X · draw28.1%
2 · Genoa43.9%

Model estimate: win Pisa 28.0%, draw 28.1%, win Genoa 43.9%. Model favourite — Genoa.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Pisa - Genoa April 19, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Genoa.

Strongest: Genoa - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.11 / X 3.01 / 2 2.49
  • 1X2 market: Pisa 30.5% / X 31.4% / Genoa 38.0%
  • Glicko: Pisa 28.0% / X 28.1% / Genoa 43.9%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 32.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.5%
1 30.5%
X 31.5%
2 38.1%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.4%
Over 2.5 38.0%
Under 2.5 62.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 2

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 42.5%
Total Under 2.5
Score 0:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 19.04.2026 16:00 UTC
Stadium Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani (Pisa)
Capacity 17,500

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Genoa 44%
💹 Market Genoa 3804%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Pisa - Genoa

Pisa: Win 3.20 Pisa: Draw 3.10 Genoa Win: 2.40 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.30 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.62 Individualnyy total golov Pisa bolshe 0.5: 1.44 Individualnyy total golov Pisa menshe 0.5: 2.62 Individualnyy total golov Genoa bolshe 1.5: 2.62 Individ…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:2
Events 17
Statistics 24
Lineups 44
min Event Player Team
19' 19' Normal Goal | Simone Canestrelli | assist/sub out: Samuele Angori Pisa
32' 32' Yellow Card | Arturo Calabresi Pisa
41' 41' Normal Goal | Jeff Ekhator | assist/sub out: Tommaso Baldanzi Genoa
55' 55' Penalty | Lorenzo Colombo Genoa
56' 56' Substitution 1 | Felipe Loyola | assist/sub out: Henrik Wendel Meister Pisa
61' 61' Substitution 3 | Ebenezer Akinsanmiro | assist/sub out: Juan Cuadrado Pisa
61' 61' Substitution 2 | Arturo Calabresi | assist/sub out: Isak Vural Pisa
65' 65' Substitution 1 | Jeff Ekhator | assist/sub out: Jean Onana Genoa
Metric Pisa Genoa SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.13 1.65 final
Zablokirovannye udary 4 5 final
Shots off target 4 3 final
Shots on target 4 5 final
Udary vsego 12 13 final
Fouls soversheno 21 16 final
Zheltye kartochki 3 1 final
Offsides 1 1 final
Pisa #3 Aarón Martín, #4 Alexsandro Amorim, #5 L. Ostigard, #8 T. Baldanzi, #16 J. Bijlow, #20 S. Sabelli, #21 J. Ekhator, #22 J. Vasquez, #27 A. Marcandalli, #29 L. Colombo, #73 P. Masini
Genoa #1 Adrian Šemper, #3 Samuele Angori, #4 A. Caracciolo, #5 Simone Canestrelli, #10 M. Tramoni, #14 E. Akinsanmiro, #15 Idrissa Touré, #20 M. Aebischer, #32 Stefano Moreo, #33 Arturo Calabresi, #35 F. Loyola
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Caracciolo Genoa football.player.assists 0
A. Caracciolo Genoa Dribling popytki 5
A. Caracciolo Genoa Edinoborstva vyigrano 11
A. Caracciolo Genoa Seyvy 0
A. Caracciolo Genoa football.player.minutes_played 90
A. Caracciolo Genoa Tochnost pasov % 1
A. Caracciolo Genoa Klyuchevye pasy 45
A. Caracciolo Genoa Reyting (staryy) 6.2
A. Caracciolo Genoa Bloki 3
A. Caracciolo Genoa Otbory vsego 41
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Pisa 28.8% 28.0%
Draw 30.1% 28.1% draw risk
Genoa 41.0% 43.9% market and model agree
xG - 0.98 : 1.30
Total 2.5 Over 32.2% - Under 67.8%
Model check - - Difference 0.03
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.03

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 28.0% / 28.1% / 43.9% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,385 / 1,490 Pisa / Genoa
RD 76 / 73 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.49 market consensus · no value · model 43.9%
X 3.01 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 3.11 market consensus · no value · model 28.0%
Double chance
X2 1.37 market consensus · no value · model 72.0%
12 1.37 market consensus · no value · model 71.9%
1X 1.53 market consensus · no value · model 56.1%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.38 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.11 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.46 market consensus · line only
2 +1 4.38 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.50 market consensus · no value · model 32.2%
Under 2.5 1.53 market consensus · weak value +3.7% · model 67.8%
Both teams to score
No 1.74 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.03 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
2.98 33.6% 3.50 28.6% 3.20 31.3% 3.10 32.3% 3.00 33.3% 3.10 32.3%
X 2.96 33.8% 3.35 29.9% 3.10 32.3% 3.00 33.3% 3.00 33.3% 2.95 33.9%
2.52 39.7% 2.20 45.5% 2.63 38.0% 2.30 43.5% 2.55 39.2% 2.60 38.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet
no 1.75 57.1% 1.72 58.1% 1.72 58.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.70 58.8% 1.75 57.1% 1.73 57.8% 1.73 57.8% 1.70 58.8%
yes 2.00 50.0% 2.13 47.0% 2.03 49.3% 2.05 48.8% 2.05 48.8% 2.00 50.0% 2.05 48.8% 2.00 50.0% 2.03 49.3%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.38 72.5% 1.40 71.4% 1.36 73.5% 1.36 73.5% 1.40 71.4% 1.33 75.2%
home_away 1.33 75.2% 1.42 70.4% 1.33 75.2% 1.36 73.5% 1.38 72.5% 1.33 75.2%
home_draw 1.50 66.7% 1.55 64.5% 1.57 63.7% 1.53 65.4% 1.52 65.8% 1.50 66.7%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.10 90.9% — 1.05 95.2%
Over 0.75 — — 1.07 93.5%
Over 1.0 — — 1.10 90.9%
Over 1.25 — — 1.28 78.1%
Over 1.5 1.50 66.7% — 1.45 69.0%
Over 1.75 — — 1.59 62.9%
Over 2.0 — 1.84 54.4% —
Over 2.5 2.45 40.8% — —
Over 3.5 4.75 21.1% — —
Over 4.5 9.50 10.5% — —
Under 0.5 6.50 15.4% — —
Under 1.5 2.55 39.2% — —
Under 2.0 — 2.06 48.5% —
Under 2.5 1.53 65.4% — —
Under 3.5 1.18 84.8% — —
Under 4.5 1.05 95.2% — —
Match center
Pisa
Founded 1909
Genoa
Founded 1893
Match center
Pisa
L L L W L
10.04 18:45 UTC Serie A
Pisa 0:3 AS RomaAS Roma
05.04 16:00 UTC Serie A
Pisa 0:1 TorinoTorino
22.03 11:30 UTC Serie A
Pisa 0:5 ComoComo
15.03 14:00 UTC Serie A
Pisa 3:1 CagliariCagliari
07.03 19:45 UTC Serie A
Pisa 0:4 JuventusJuventus
1 Wins
0 Draws
4 Losses
0.6 Scored
2.8 Conceded
3 Points
Genoa
W L L W W
12.04 10:30 UTC Serie A
Genoa 2:1 SassuoloSassuolo
06.04 16:00 UTC Serie A
Genoa 0:2 JuventusJuventus
20.03 19:45 UTC Serie A
Genoa 0:2 UdineseUdinese
15.03 11:30 UTC Serie A
Genoa 2:0 Hellas VeronaHellas Verona
08.03 17:00 UTC Serie A
Genoa 2:1 AS RomaAS Roma
3 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
1.2 Scored
1.2 Conceded
9 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyPisa - Genoa

Pisa
1 matches total
Genoa
Pisa: 0 (0%)
Draws:1 (100%)
Genoa: 0 (0%)
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 2 goals (1:1, 03.01 14:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw 1:1 (03.01 14:00 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 1
1 Goals conceded 1

Match history

03.01 14:00 UTC Serie A
Pisa
1:1
Genoa
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.