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Serie A Italy

35 round 01.05.2026 18:45 UTC Match prediction

01.05.2026 18:45 UTC 35 round

Finished

Serie A

Pisa - Lecce

Italy Football

Stadium Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani

Capacity 17 500

Pisa

1 : 2

Finished

Lecce

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Lecce — 39%

1 · Pisa31.1%

X · draw29.5%

2 · Lecce39.4%

Model estimate: win Pisa 31.1%, draw 29.5%, win Lecce 39.4%. Model favourite — Lecce.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Pisa - Lecce May 1, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Lecce.

Strongest: Lecce - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.52 / X 2.97 / 2 2.31
1X2 market: Pisa 27.0% / X 32.0% / Lecce 41.1%
Glicko: Pisa 31.1% / X 29.5% / Lecce 39.4%
Total 2.5: over probability 32.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.4%

1 27.0%

X 32.0%

2 41.1%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.0%

Over 2.5 36.7%

Under 2.5 63.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: X

Main outcome X

Agreement 4/4

Confidence 30.5%

Total Under 2.5

Score 0:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center

Stadium Arena Garibaldi — Romeo Ankonetani (Piza, Italy), 10 372 zritelya (59% pri vmestimosti 17 500)

Referee Daniele Doveri (Rim)

Start 01.05.2026 18:45 UTC

Capacity 17,500

🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Lecce 39%

💹 Market Lecce 4109%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Pisa - Lecce

Itogovyy protokol and rezultaty vstrechi Piza - Lechche, 1 maya 2026. Highlights and statistika matches, tochnyy schet. Championship Italy po futbolu (Seriya A) 2025-2026, 35 round. Piza - Lechche, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matches.

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

7/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 1:2

Events 17

Statistics 24

Lineups 51

min Event Player Team

43' 43' Yellow Card | A. Caracciolo A. Caracciolo Pisa

52' 52' Normal Goal | L. Banda Lameck Banda Lecce

56' 56' Normal Goal | M. Léris Mehdi Léris Pisa

61' 61' Yellow Card | M. Aebischer M. Aebischer Pisa

64' 64' Substitution 1 | S. Angori | assist/sub out: I. Touré Samuele Angori Pisa

65' 65' Normal Goal | W. Cheddira | assist/sub out: S. Pierotti Walid Cheddira Lecce

66' 66' Yellow Card | W. Cheddira Walid Cheddira Lecce

70' 70' Substitution 2 | İ. Vural | assist/sub out: G. Piccinini Isak Vural Pisa

Metric Pisa Lecce SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 2.23 0.88 final

Zablokirovannye udary 5 1 final

Shots off target 5 2 final

Shots on target 7 4 final

Udary vsego 17 7 final

Fouls soversheno 15 13 final

Zheltye kartochki 4 2 final

Offsides 6 2 final

Pisa #1 Adrian Šemper, #2 R. Bozhinov, #3 Samuele Angori, #32 Stefano Moreo, #81 Filip Stojilković, #4 A. Caracciolo, #20 M. Aebischer, #5 Simone Canestrelli, #14 E. Akinsanmiro, #21 Isak Vural, #7 Mehdi Léris

Lecce #19 Lameck Banda, #25 Antonino Gallo, #30 Wladimiro Falcone, #79 O. Ngom, #99 Walid Cheddira, #20 Y. Ramadani, #29 Lassana Coulibaly, #44 Tiago Gabriel, #5 J. Siebert, #50 Santiago Pierotti, #17 Danilo Veiga

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Sala Lecce Seyvy 0

Antonino Gallo Lecce Dribling popytki 3

Antonino Gallo Lecce Edinoborstva vyigrano 5

Antonino Gallo Lecce Fouls soversheno 2

Antonino Gallo Lecce Seyvy 0

Antonino Gallo Lecce football.player.minutes_played 93

Antonino Gallo Lecce Klyuchevye pasy 26

Antonino Gallo Lecce Reyting (staryy) 6.7

Antonino Gallo Lecce Bloki 1

Antonino Gallo Lecce Otbory vsego 19

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Pisa 30.0% 31.1%

Draw 31.8% 29.5% draw risk

Lecce 38.2% 39.4% market and model agree

xG - 0.99 : 1.15

Total 2.5 Over 32.8% - Under 67.2%

Model check - - Difference 0.02

Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.02

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 31.1% / 29.5% / 39.4% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,374 / 1,425 Pisa / Lecce

RD 75 / 73 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.31 market consensus · no value · model 39.4%

X 2.97 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 3.52 market consensus · no value · model 31.1%

Double chance

X2 1.29 market consensus · no value · model 68.9%

12 1.37 market consensus · no value · model 70.5%

1X 1.62 market consensus · no value · model 60.6%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.32 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.09 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 2.25 market consensus · line only

2 +1 3.79 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 2.57 market consensus · no value · model 32.8%

Under 2.5 1.49 market consensus · no value · model 67.2%

Both teams to score

No 1.68 market consensus · line only

Yes 2.10 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
	3.45 29.0%	3.74 26.7%	3.40 29.4%	3.50 28.6%	3.60 27.8%	3.60 27.8%
X	2.96 33.8%	3.07 32.6%	2.90 34.5%	3.00 33.3%	3.00 33.3%	2.88 34.7%
	2.28 43.9%	2.37 42.2%	2.25 44.4%	2.30 43.5%	2.27 44.1%	2.30 43.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	1.70 58.8%	1.66 60.2%	1.70 58.8%	1.70 58.8%	1.67 59.9%	1.67 59.9%	1.67 59.9%	1.64 61.0%	1.72 58.1%
yes	2.10 47.6%	2.12 47.2%	2.15 46.5%	2.05 48.8%	2.10 47.6%	2.15 46.5%	2.05 48.8%	2.12 47.2%	2.04 49.0%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.30 76.9%	1.32 75.8%	1.30 76.9%	1.30 76.9%	1.31 76.3%	1.25 80.0%
home_away	1.33 75.2%	1.43 69.9%	1.36 73.5%	1.36 73.5%	1.36 73.5%	1.33 75.2%
home_draw	1.60 62.5%	1.66 60.2%	1.60 62.5%	1.57 63.7%	1.67 59.9%	1.62 61.7%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	1.11 90.1%	1.07 93.5%
Over 0.75	—	1.10 90.9%
Over 1.0	—	1.14 87.7%
Over 1.25	—	1.35 74.1%
Over 1.5	1.53 65.4%	1.59 62.9%
Over 1.75	—	1.67 59.9%
Over 2.0	—	1.92 52.1%
Over 2.25	—	2.38 42.0%
Over 2.5	2.55 39.2%	—
Over 3.5	5.00 20.0%	—
Over 4.5	9.50 10.5%	—
Under 0.5	6.25 16.0%	—
Under 1.5	2.45 40.8%	—
Under 2.5	1.50 66.7%	—
Under 3.5	1.17 85.5%	—
Under 4.5	1.05 95.2%	—

Match center

Pisa

Founded 1909

Lecce

Founded 1908

Match center

Pisa

No home-team absences found in the prematch data.

Lecce

FM F. Marchwinski Jumpers knee

Daniel Denon Matteo Tramoni Marius Marin Travmirovannye Kialonda Gaspar Medon Berisha Rikkardo Sottil Sadik Fofana

Pisa Founded: 1909

Lecce Founded: 1908

Match center

Pisa

L L L L L

25.04 13:00 UTC Serie A

Pisa 0:1 Parma

19.04 16:00 UTC Serie A

Pisa 1:2 Genoa

10.04 18:45 UTC Serie A

Pisa 0:3 AS Roma

05.04 16:00 UTC Serie A

Pisa 0:1 Torino

22.03 11:30 UTC Serie A

Pisa 0:5 Como

0 Wins

0 Draws

5 Losses

0.2 Scored

2.4 Conceded

0 Points

Lecce

D D L L L

25.04 18:45 UTC Serie A

Lecce 0:0 Hellas Verona

20.04 18:45 UTC Serie A

Lecce 1:1 Fiorentina

12.04 16:00 UTC Serie A

Lecce 0:2 Bologna

06.04 13:00 UTC Serie A

Lecce 0:3 Atalanta

22.03 17:00 UTC Serie A

Lecce 0:1 AS Roma

0 Wins

2 Draws

3 Losses

0.2 Scored

1.4 Conceded

2 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyPisa - Lecce

Pisa

1 matches total

Lecce

Pisa: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Lecce: 1 (100%)

Biggest win Lecce 0:1 (12.12 19:45 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 1 goals (0:1, 12.12 19:45 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 1

1 Goals conceded 0

Match history

12.12 19:45 UTC

Serie A

Pisa

0:1

Lecce

Match center

Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.

Team 1 Pisa

Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket

Team 2 Lecce

34 Games 34

2 Wins 7

12 Draws 8

20 Losses 19

24 Scored 22

61 Conceded 46

18 Points 29

82.24 Attacks 92.38

37.03 Dangerous attacks 39.41

0 Big chances 0

9.62 Shots on goal 9.56

2.82 Shots on target 2.32

9 Sendoffs 0.06 Goly Lamek Banda Valid Kheddira 0:1 52' Mekhdi Leri 1 56' Valid Kheddira Santyago Perotti 1:2 65' Nakazaniya Antonio Karachcholo 43' Mikhel Ebisher 61' Valid Kheddira 66' Rafiu Durosinmi 82' Santyago Perotti 88' Khenrik Meyster 90'

Piza Lechche 34 Games 34 2 Wins 7 12 Draws 8 20 Losses 19 24 Scored 22 61 Conceded 46 18 Points 29 82.24 Attacks 92.38 37.03 Dangerous attacks 39.41 0 Big chances 0 9.62 Shots on goal 9.56 2.82 Udary v stvor 2.32 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 3.71 Uglovye 4.47 1.65 Offsaydy 1.09 13.24 Foly 12.85 40.56 % vladeniya myachom 42.47 1.94 Warnings 1.74 0.09 Sendoffs 0.06 Goly Lamek Banda Valid Kheddira 0:1 52' Mekhdi Leri 1 56' Valid Kheddira Santyago Perotti 1:2 65' Nakazaniya Antonio Karachcholo 43' Mikhel Ebisher 61' Valid Kheddira 66' Rafiu Durosinmi 82' Santyago Perotti 88' Khenrik Meyster 90'