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Serie A
Serie A Italy
05.04.2026 16:00 UTC Match prediction
05.04.2026 16:00 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Pisa - Torino

Italy Football
Stadium Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani
Capacity 17 500
Pisa
Pisa
0 : 1
Finished
Torino
Torino
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Torino — 43%

1 · Pisa28.8%
X · draw28.1%
2 · Torino43.1%

Model estimate: win Pisa 28.8%, draw 28.1%, win Torino 43.1%. Model favourite — Torino.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Pisa - Torino April 5, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Torino.

Strongest: Torino - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.24 / X 2.98 / 2 2.44
  • 1X2 market: Pisa 29.3% / X 31.8% / Torino 38.9%
  • Glicko: Pisa 28.8% / X 28.1% / Torino 43.1%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 31.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.4%
1 29.3%
X 31.8%
2 38.9%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.0%
Over 2.5 41.2%
Under 2.5 58.8%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: X

Main outcome X
Agreement 2/4
Confidence 41.8%
Total Under 2.5
Score 0:0

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center
Start 05.04.2026 16:00 UTC
Stadium Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani (Pisa)
Capacity 17,500

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Torino 43%
💹 Market Torino 3886%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Pisa - Torino

Pisa: Win 3.25 Pisa: Draw 2.90 Torino Win: 2.45 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.30 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.62 Individualnyy total golov Pisa bolshe 0.5: 1.44 Individualnyy total golov Pisa menshe 0.5: 2.62 Individualnyy total golov Torino bolshe 1.5: 2.50 Indiv…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 0:1
Events 12
Statistics 24
Lineups 48
min Event Player Team
14' 14' Yellow Card | Michel Aebischer T. Heaton Pisa
58' 58' Substitution 1 | Henrik Wendel Meister | assist/sub out: Felipe Loyola Pisa
58' 58' Substitution 2 | Stefano Moreo | assist/sub out: Filip Stojilković Pisa
62' 62' Substitution 1 | Matteo Prati | assist/sub out: Cesare Casadei Torino
63' 63' Substitution 2 | Sandro Kulenović | assist/sub out: Niels Nkounkou Torino
73' 73' Substitution 3 | Giovanni Simeone | assist/sub out: Faustino Anjorin Torino
77' 77' Substitution 3 | Malthe Højholt | assist/sub out: Ebenezer Akinsanmiro Vadim Konovchuk Pisa
80' 80' Normal Goal Torino
Metric Pisa Torino SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 0.32 1.83 final
Zablokirovannye udary 1 3 final
Shots off target 5 8 final
Shots on target 1 2 final
Udary vsego 7 13 final
Fouls soversheno 12 12 final
Zheltye kartochki 1 0 final
Offsides 1 1 final
Pisa #1 A. Paleari, #4 M. Prati, #10 N. Vlasic, #16 M. Pedersen, #17 S. Kulenović, #18 G. Simeone, #23 Saúl Coco, #33 Rafael Obrador, #44 A. Ismajli, #66 G. Gineitis, #77 E. Ebosse
Torino #1 Adrian Šemper, #3 Samuele Angori, #4 A. Caracciolo, #5 Simone Canestrelli, #7 Mehdi Léris, #8 Malthe Højholt, #9 Henrik Wendel Meister, #10 M. Tramoni, #20 M. Aebischer, #32 Stefano Moreo, #33 Arturo Calabresi
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Ismajli Pisa football.player.assists 0
A. Ismajli Pisa Dribling popytki 4
A. Ismajli Pisa Edinoborstva vsego 2
A. Ismajli Pisa Edinoborstva vyigrano 6
A. Ismajli Pisa Fouls soversheno 1
A. Ismajli Pisa Seyvy 0
A. Ismajli Pisa football.player.minutes_played 90
A. Ismajli Pisa Klyuchevye pasy 55
A. Ismajli Pisa Reyting (staryy) 7.3
A. Ismajli Pisa Bloki 1
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Pisa 29.6% 28.8%
Draw 32.1% 28.1% draw risk
Torino 38.3% 43.1% market and model agree
xG - 1.00 : 1.29
Total 2.5 Over 31.7% - Under 68.3%
Model check - - Difference 0.05
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.05

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 28.8% / 28.1% / 43.1% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,399 / 1,476 Pisa / Torino
RD 78 / 74 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.44 market consensus · no value · model 43.1%
X 2.98 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 3.24 market consensus · no value · model 28.8%
Double chance
X2 1.34 market consensus · no value · model 71.2%
12 1.37 market consensus · no value · model 71.9%
1X 1.55 market consensus · no value · model 56.9%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.36 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.11 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.40 market consensus · line only
2 +1 4.07 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.31 market consensus · no value · model 31.7%
Under 2.5 1.62 market consensus · value +10.6% · model 68.3%
Both teams to score
No 1.83 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.91 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
3.25 30.8% 3.35 29.9% 3.42 29.2% 3.00 33.3% 3.30 30.3% 3.25 30.8%
X 2.96 33.8% 3.05 32.8% 3.07 32.6% 2.90 34.5% 3.00 33.3% 3.00 33.3%
2.36 42.4% 2.40 41.7% 2.52 39.7% 2.45 40.8% 2.40 41.7% 2.45 40.8%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet
no 1.83 54.6% 1.88 53.2% 1.82 55.0% 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.85 54.1% 1.83 54.6% 1.83 54.6% 1.80 55.6%
yes 1.90 52.6% 1.93 51.8% 1.90 52.6% 1.91 52.4% 1.95 51.3% 1.90 52.6% 1.91 52.4% 1.87 53.5% 1.90 52.6%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.33 75.2% 1.36 73.5% 1.36 73.5% 1.33 75.2% 1.36 73.5% 1.30 76.9%
home_away 1.33 75.2% 1.43 69.9% 1.36 73.5% 1.36 73.5% 1.37 73.0% 1.30 76.9%
home_draw 1.55 64.5% 1.59 62.9% 1.53 65.4% 1.53 65.4% 1.57 63.7% 1.57 63.7%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.09 91.7% — 1.05 95.2%
Over 0.75 — — 1.07 93.5%
Over 1.0 — — 1.10 90.9%
Over 1.25 — — 1.25 80.0%
Over 1.5 1.42 70.4% — 1.39 71.9%
Over 1.75 — — 1.51 66.2%
Over 2.25 — 2.05 48.8% —
Over 2.5 2.25 44.4% — —
Over 3.5 4.20 23.8% — —
Over 4.5 8.50 11.8% — —
Under 0.5 7.00 14.3% — —
Under 1.5 2.80 35.7% — —
Under 2.25 — 1.85 54.1% —
Under 2.5 1.62 61.7% — —
Under 3.5 1.22 82.0% — —
Under 4.5 1.06 94.3% — —
Match center
Pisa
Founded 1909
Torino
Founded 1906
Match center
Pisa
JC J. Cuadrado Stomach Disorder
MM M. Marin Injury
Torino
ZA Z. Aboukhlal Muscle Injury
DZ D. Zapata Thigh Injury
Pisa Founded: 1909
Torino Founded: 1906
Match center
Pisa
L W L L L
22.03 11:30 UTC Serie A
Pisa 0:5 ComoComo
15.03 14:00 UTC Serie A
Pisa 3:1 CagliariCagliari
07.03 19:45 UTC Serie A
Pisa 0:4 JuventusJuventus
02.03 17:30 UTC Serie A
Pisa 0:1 BolognaBologna
23.02 17:30 UTC Serie A
Pisa 0:1 FiorentinaFiorentina
1 Wins
0 Draws
4 Losses
0.6 Scored
2.4 Conceded
3 Points
Torino
L W L W L
21.03 17:00 UTC Serie A
Torino 2:3 AC MilanAC Milan
13.03 19:45 UTC Serie A
Torino 4:1 ParmaParma
06.03 19:45 UTC Serie A
Torino 1:2 NapoliNapoli
01.03 17:00 UTC Serie A
Torino 2:0 LazioLazio
22.02 11:30 UTC Serie A
Torino 0:3 GenoaGenoa
2 Wins
0 Draws
3 Losses
1.8 Scored
1.8 Conceded
6 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyPisa - Torino

Pisa
1 matches total
Torino
Pisa: 0 (0%)
Draws:1 (100%)
Torino: 0 (0%)
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 4 goals (2:2, 02.11 14:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw 2:2 (02.11 14:00 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

2 Goals scored 2
2 Goals conceded 2

Match history

02.11 14:00 UTC Serie A
Pisa
2:2
Torino
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.