Match center
Start
04.04.2026 21:30 UTC
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04.04.2026 21:30 UTC
Finished
Serie A
Sao Paulo - Cruzeiro
4
:
1
Finished
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Sao Paulo — 42%
Model estimate: win Sao Paulo 42.2%, draw 28.6%, win Cruzeiro 29.3%. Model favourite — Sao Paulo.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Sao Paulo - Cruzeiro April 4, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Sao Paulo.
Strongest: Sao Paulo - market and Glicko agree
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.12 / X 3.25 / 2 3.50
- 1X2 market: Sao Paulo 44.4% / X 28.8% / Cruzeiro 26.8%
- Glicko: Sao Paulo 42.2% / X 28.6% / Cruzeiro 29.3%
- Total 2.5: over probability 81.9%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 6.5%
1
44.3%
X
28.9%
2
26.8%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 5.8%
Over 2.5
45.7%
Under 2.5
54.3%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
AI
Model consensus
AI outcome leader: 1
Main outcome
Agreement
4/4
Confidence
43.4%
Total
Over 2.5
Score
2:1
Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.
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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model
Sao Paulo 42%
💹 Market
Sao Paulo 4435%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center
Sao Paulo - Cruzeiro
Sao Paulo: Win 2.30 Sao Paulo: Draw 3.00 Cruzeiro Win: 3.50 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.40 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.53 Individualnyy total golov Sao Paulo bolshe 1.5: 2.62 Individualnyy total golov Sao Paulo menshe 1.5: 1.44 Individualnyy total golov Cruzeir…
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
4
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
yes
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
pending
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
4:1
Events
19
Statistics
24
Lineups
30
min
Event
Player
Team
12'
12' Penalty | Jonathan Calleri
Sao Paulo
16'
16' Normal Goal | Ferreira | assist/sub out: Artur
Sao Paulo
46'
46' Substitution 1 | Matheus Henrique | assist/sub out: Lucas Silva
O. Campos
Cruzeiro
46'
46' Substitution 2 | William Furtado | assist/sub out: Kaua Moraes
Cruzeiro
46'
46' Substitution 2 | Sabino | assist/sub out: Matheus Doria
Hussain Al Nattar
Sao Paulo
47'
47' Normal Goal
Cruzeiro
60'
60' Substitution 3 | Luciano | assist/sub out: Cauly
J. Lora
Sao Paulo
62'
62' Normal Goal | Ferreira
Sao Paulo
Metric
Sao Paulo
Cruzeiro
SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG)
2.01
1.52
final
Zablokirovannye udary
3
2
final
Shots off target
3
5
final
Shots on target
5
7
final
Udary vsego
11
14
final
Fouls soversheno
21
14
final
Zheltye kartochki
2
0
final
Offsides
1
0
final
Sao Paulo
#8 Marcos Antônio, #9 J. Calleri, #10 Luciano, #11 Ferreira, #16 D. Bobadilla, #23 Rafael, #35 Sabino, #37 Artur
Cruzeiro
#6 Kaiki, #8 Matheus Henrique, #11 Gerson, #12 William Furtado, #15 Fabrício Bruno, #19 Kaio Jorge, #25 Lucas Villalba, #31 Matheus Cunha, #88 Christian, #99 K. Arroyo
Player
Team
Metric
SStats
Artur
Sao Paulo
football.player.assists
1
Artur
Sao Paulo
Dribling popytki
8
Artur
Sao Paulo
Dribling uspeshno
1
Artur
Sao Paulo
Edinoborstva vyigrano
13
Artur
Sao Paulo
Fouls soversheno
5
Artur
Sao Paulo
Seyvy
0
Artur
Sao Paulo
football.player.minutes_played
90
Artur
Sao Paulo
Tochnost pasov %
2
Artur
Sao Paulo
Klyuchevye pasy
17
Artur
Sao Paulo
Reyting (staryy)
8.3
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Sao Paulo
44.3%
42.2%
market and model agree
Draw
29.1%
28.6%
draw risk
Cruzeiro
26.6%
29.3%
xG
-
1.25 : 0.99
Total 2.5
Over 81.9%
-
Under 18.1%
Model check
-
-
Difference 0.03
Draw-trap risk
Favourite-trap risk
The match leans toward a high total
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.03
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
42.2% / 28.6% / 29.3%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,593 / 1,473
Sao Paulo / Cruzeiro
RD
111 / 111
rating uncertainty
HFA: -
HFA mu: -
MoV: -
N: N=1
P: glicko2_expected
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
3.50
market consensus · no value · model 29.3%
X
3.25
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
2.12
market consensus · no value · model 42.2%
Double chance
X2
1.70
market consensus · no value · model 57.9%
12
1.32
market consensus · no value · model 71.5%
1X
1.29
market consensus · no value · model 70.7%
Handicap
2 -0.5
1.72
market consensus · line only
2 -1
1.31
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
3.48
market consensus · line only
2 +1
6.05
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
2.07
market consensus · weak value +69.5% · model 81.9%
Under 2.5
1.74
market consensus · no value · model 18.1%
Both teams to score
No
1.90
market consensus · line only
Yes
1.81
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.10 47.6% | 2.19 45.7% | 2.10 47.6% | 2.15 46.5% | 2.05 48.8% | 2.10 47.6% | |
| X | 3.25 30.8% | 3.34 29.9% | 3.20 31.3% | 3.30 30.3% | 3.25 30.8% | 3.30 30.3% |
| 3.50 28.6% | 3.50 28.6% | 3.60 27.8% | 3.60 27.8% | 3.50 28.6% | 3.40 29.4% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | BetVictor | Marathonbet | Unibet | William Hill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.93 51.8% | 1.90 52.6% | 1.95 51.3% | 1.91 52.4% | 1.90 52.6% | 1.87 53.5% | 1.86 53.8% | 1.85 54.1% |
| yes | 1.77 56.5% | 1.81 55.3% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.83 54.6% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.81 55.3% | 1.84 54.4% | 1.83 54.6% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 1.70 58.8% | 1.69 59.2% | 1.70 58.8% | 1.75 57.1% | 1.73 57.8% | 1.65 60.6% |
| home_away | 1.28 78.1% | 1.34 74.6% | 1.36 73.5% | 1.33 75.2% | 1.30 76.9% | 1.29 77.5% |
| home_draw | 1.28 78.1% | 1.31 76.3% | 1.28 78.1% | 1.31 76.3% | 1.30 76.9% | 1.29 77.5% |
Goals Over/Under
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.07 93.5% | 1.03 97.1% |
| Over 0.75 | — | 1.04 96.2% |
| Over 1.0 | — | 1.05 95.2% |
| Over 1.25 | — | 1.18 84.8% |
| Over 1.5 | 1.35 74.1% | 1.31 76.3% |
| Over 1.75 | — | 1.39 71.9% |
| Over 2.0 | — | 1.52 65.8% |
| Over 2.25 | — | 1.78 56.2% |
| Over 2.5 | 2.00 50.0% | — |
| Over 3.5 | 3.60 27.8% | — |
| Over 4.5 | 7.00 14.3% | — |
| Under 0.5 | 8.00 12.5% | — |
| Under 1.5 | 3.10 32.3% | — |
| Under 2.5 | 1.77 56.5% | — |
| Under 3.5 | 1.28 78.1% | — |
| Under 4.5 | 1.09 91.7% | — |
Match center
Sao Paulo
Founded
1930
Cruzeiro
Founded
1921
Match center
Sao Paulo
LM
Lucas Moura
Broken rib
AF
A. Franco
Injury
Cruzeiro
C
Cássio
Knee Injury
LS
L. Sinisterra
Hamstring Injury
Sao Paulo
Founded: 1930
Cruzeiro
Founded: 1921
Match center
Full head-to-head historySao Paulo - Cruzeiro
Sao Paulo
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Match center
The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.
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- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form