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Serie A
Serie A Italy
15.03.2026 14:00 UTC Match prediction
15.03.2026 14:00 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Sassuolo - Bologna

Italy Football
Sassuolo
Sassuolo
0 : 1
Finished
Bologna
Bologna

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Sassuolo - Bologna March 15, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Sassuolo.

Line favourite market consensus: Sassuolo. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.54 / X 3.17 / 2 2.90
  • 1X2 market: Sassuolo 37.4% / X 29.9% / Bologna 32.7%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 51.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.4%
1 37.4%
X 29.9%
2 32.7%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.6%
Over 2.5 48.3%
Under 2.5 51.7%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 15.03.2026 14:00 UTC
Match center

Sassuolo - Bologna

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.90 market consensus · line only
X 3.17 market consensus · line only
1 2.54 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.52 market consensus · line only
12 1.35 market consensus · line only
1X 1.42 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.54 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.22 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.75 market consensus · line only
2 +1 4.96 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.98 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.85 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.06 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.73 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
2.61 38.3%
X 3.23 31.0%
2.99 33.4%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
2.52 39.7% 2.51 39.8% 2.63 38.0% 2.50 40.0% 2.50 40.0% 2.57 38.9%
X 3.15 31.8% 3.25 30.8% 3.29 30.4% 3.00 33.3% 3.25 30.8% 3.15 31.8%
2.80 35.7% 2.97 33.7% 3.02 33.1% 2.80 35.7% 2.80 35.7% 2.92 34.3%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 2.10 47.6% 2.09 47.9% 2.04 49.0% 2.00 50.0% 2.00 50.0% 2.12 47.2% 2.05 48.8% 2.02 49.5% 2.18 45.9%
yes 1.70 58.8% 1.75 57.1% 1.71 58.5% 1.75 57.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.67 59.9% 1.73 57.8% 1.71 58.5% 1.74 57.5%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.50 66.7% 1.55 64.5% 1.53 65.4% 1.50 66.7% 1.53 65.4% 1.44 69.4%
home_away 1.28 78.1% 1.38 72.5% 1.33 75.2% 1.33 75.2% 1.34 74.6% 1.29 77.5%
home_draw 1.42 70.4% 1.44 69.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.44 69.4% 1.40 71.4%
Match center
Sassuolo
L W W W L
09.03 19:45 UTC Serie A
Sassuolo 1:2 LazioLazio
01.03 14:00 UTC Serie A
Sassuolo 2:1 AtalantaAtalanta
20.02 19:45 UTC Serie A
Sassuolo 3:0 Hellas VeronaHellas Verona
15.02 11:30 UTC Serie A
Sassuolo 2:1 UdineseUdinese
08.02 17:00 UTC Serie A
Sassuolo 0:5 InterInter
3 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
1.6 Scored
1.8 Conceded
9 Points
Bologna
L W W W L
08.03 14:00 UTC Serie A
Bologna 1:2 Hellas VeronaHellas Verona
02.03 17:30 UTC Serie A
Bologna 1:0 PisaPisa
23.02 19:45 UTC Serie A
Bologna 1:0 UdineseUdinese
15.02 17:00 UTC Serie A
Bologna 2:1 TorinoTorino
08.02 11:30 UTC Serie A
Bologna 0:1 ParmaParma
3 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
1.0 Scored
0.8 Conceded
9 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historySassuolo - Bologna

Sassuolo
1 matches total
Bologna
Sassuolo: 0 (0%)
Draws:1 (100%)
Bologna: 0 (0%)
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 2 goals (1:1, 28.12 17:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw 1:1 (28.12 17:00 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 1
1 Goals conceded 1

Match history

28.12 17:00 UTC Serie A
Sassuolo
1:1
Bologna