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Serie A Italy

17.04.2026 16:30 UTC Match prediction Prediction

17.04.2026 16:30 UTC

Finished

Serie A

Sassuolo - Como

Italy Football

Stadium Mapei

Sassuolo

2 : 1

Finished

Como

🎯 PropickAI prediction

High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

2 Como — 61%

1 · Sassuolo16.6%

market16%

X · draw22.9%

market22%

2 · Como ✓ Pick60.5%

market61%

Model estimate: win Sassuolo 16.6%, draw 22.9%, win Como 60.5%. Model favourite — Como.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Sassuolo - Como April 17, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Como.

Strongest: Como - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 5.77 / X 4.26 / 2 1.55
1X2 market: Sassuolo 16.5% / X 22.3% / Como 61.2%
Glicko: Sassuolo 16.6% / X 22.9% / Como 60.5%
Total 2.5: over probability 35.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.3%

1 16.5%

X 22.3%

2 ✓ Pick 61.3%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.2%

Over 2.5 56.6%

Under 2.5 43.4%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 2

Main outcome

Agreement 6/7

Confidence 67.2%

Total Under 2.5

Score 0:1

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center

Start 17.04.2026 16:30 UTC

Stadium Mapei (Redzho-Emiliya)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Como 61%

💹 Market Como 6120%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Sassuolo - Como

Sassuolo: Win 5.75 Sassuolo: Draw 4.50 Como Win: 1.50 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.67 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.20 Individualnyy total golov Sassuolo bolshe 0.5: 1.57 Individualnyy total golov Sassuolo menshe 0.5: 2.25 Individualnyy total golov Como bolshe 1.5…

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 2:1

Events 17

Statistics 24

Lineups 46

min Event Player Team

14' 14' Yellow Card | Jacobo Ramón Como

27' 27' Yellow Card | Alvaro Morata Como

42' 42' Normal Goal Sassuolo

44' 44' Normal Goal | M'Bala Nzola Sassuolo

45+2' 45+2' Normal Goal | Nico Paz | assist/sub out: Ivan Smolčić Como

46' 46' Substitution 1 | Ivan Smolčić | assist/sub out: Mërgim Vojvoda Benoit Torcq Como

46' 46' Substitution 2 | Maxence Caqueret | assist/sub out: Máximo Perrone H. J. Traore Como

46' 46' Substitution 3 | Martin Baturina | assist/sub out: Anastasios Douvikas Como

Metric Sassuolo Como SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.38 0.59 final

Zablokirovannye udary 2 5 final

Shots off target 5 4 final

Shots on target 4 3 final

Udary vsego 11 12 final

Fouls soversheno 14 11 final

Zheltye kartochki 3 3 final

Offsides 0 0 final

Sassuolo #6 S. Walukiewicz, #7 Cristian Volpato, #8 M'Bala Nzola, #13 S. Turati, #18 N. Matić, #21 J. Idzes, #25 W. Coulibaly, #42 K. Thorstvedt, #45 A. Laurienté, #80 T. Muharemovic, #90 I. Kone

Como #1 Jean Butez, #2 Marc Kempf, #6 Maxence Caqueret, #7 Álvaro Morata, #10 N. Paz, #14 Jacobo Ramón, #18 Alberto Moreno, #20 M. Baturina, #28 I. Smolcic, #33 Lucas Da Cunha, #38 A. Diao

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Fadera Sassuolo football.player.assists 0

A. Fadera Sassuolo Dribling popytki 4

A. Fadera Sassuolo Dribling uspeshno 2

A. Fadera Sassuolo Edinoborstva vyigrano 10

A. Fadera Sassuolo Fouls na igroke 1

A. Fadera Sassuolo Seyvy 0

A. Fadera Sassuolo football.player.minutes_played 26

A. Fadera Sassuolo Klyuchevye pasy 5

A. Fadera Sassuolo Reyting (staryy) 6.3

A. Fadera Sassuolo Bloki 3

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Sassuolo 16.5% 16.6%

Draw 22.7% 22.9% draw risk

Como 60.8% 60.5% market and model agree

xG - 0.80 : 1.77

Total 2.5 Over 35.3% - Under 64.7%

Model check - - Difference 0.00

Market vs Glicko gap: 0.00

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 16.6% / 22.9% / 60.5% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,510 / 1,645 Sassuolo / Como

RD 73 / 73 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 1.55 market consensus · no value · model 60.5%

X 4.26 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 5.77 market consensus · no value · model 16.6%

Double chance

X2 1.14 market consensus · no value · model 83.5%

12 1.20 market consensus · no value · model 77.1%

1X 2.43 market consensus · no value · model 39.5%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.14 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.01 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 1.52 market consensus · line only

2 +1 1.90 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.68 market consensus · no value · model 35.3%

Under 2.5 2.19 market consensus · value +41.7% · model 64.7%

Both teams to score

No 2.01 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.75 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	5.70 17.5%	5.00 20.0%	6.10 16.4%	5.50 18.2%	5.75 17.4%	5.70 17.5%
X	4.10 24.4%	3.95 25.3%	4.53 22.1%	4.00 25.0%	4.33 23.1%	4.50 22.2%
	1.53 65.4%	1.69 59.2%	1.59 62.9%	1.53 65.4%	1.53 65.4%	1.60 62.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet
no	2.05 48.8%	2.07 48.3%	1.98 50.5%	2.00 50.0%	1.95 51.3%	2.02 49.5%	2.05 48.8%	2.00 50.0%	1.96 51.0%
yes	1.73 57.8%	1.76 56.8%	1.75 57.1%	1.75 57.1%	1.80 55.6%	1.75 57.1%	1.73 57.8%	1.70 58.8%	1.75 57.1%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.13 88.5%	1.16 86.2%	1.14 87.7%	1.14 87.7%	1.17 85.5%	1.10 90.9%
home_away	1.18 84.8%	1.24 80.7%	1.22 82.0%	1.20 83.3%	1.21 82.6%	1.17 85.5%
home_draw	2.40 41.7%	2.53 39.5%	2.40 41.7%	2.38 42.0%	2.45 40.8%	2.40 41.7%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	1.04 96.2%	—	1.00 100.0%
Over 0.75	—	—	1.00 100.0%
Over 1.0	—	—	1.00 100.0%
Over 1.25	—	—	1.10 90.9%
Over 1.5	1.22 82.0%	—	1.19 84.0%
Over 1.75	—	—	1.24 80.7%
Over 2.5	1.67 59.9%	—	—
Over 2.75	—	2.04 49.0%	—
Over 3.5	2.70 37.0%	—	—
Over 4.5	4.75 21.1%	—	—
Under 0.5	10.00 10.0%	—	—
Under 1.5	4.20 23.8%	—	—
Under 2.5	2.15 46.5%	—	—
Under 2.75	—	1.86 53.8%	—
Under 3.5	1.45 69.0%	—	—
Under 4.5	1.18 84.8%	—	—

Match center

Sassuolo

Founded 1922

Como

Founded 1907

Match center

Sassuolo

L W D L L

12.04 10:30 UTC Serie A

Sassuolo 1:2 Genoa

04.04 13:00 UTC Serie A

Sassuolo 2:1 Cagliari

21.03 19:45 UTC Serie A

Sassuolo 1:1 Juventus

15.03 14:00 UTC Serie A

Sassuolo 0:1 Bologna

09.03 19:45 UTC Serie A

Sassuolo 1:2 Lazio

1 Wins

1 Draws

3 Losses

1.0 Scored

1.4 Conceded

4 Points

Como

L D W W W

12.04 18:45 UTC Serie A

Como 3:4 Inter

06.04 10:30 UTC Serie A

Como 0:0 Udinese

22.03 11:30 UTC Serie A

Como 5:0 Pisa

15.03 17:00 UTC Serie A

Como 2:1 AS Roma

07.03 14:00 UTC Serie A

Como 2:1 Cagliari

3 Wins

1 Draws

1 Losses

2.4 Scored

1.2 Conceded

10 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historySassuolo - Como

Sassuolo

1 matches total

Como

Sassuolo: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Como: 1 (100%)

Biggest win Como 0:2 (28.11 19:45 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 2 goals (0:2, 28.11 19:45 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 2

2 Goals conceded 0

Match history

28.11 19:45 UTC

Serie A

Sassuolo

0:2

Como

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.