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Serie A
Serie A Italy
14.09.2025 16:00 UTC Match prediction
14.09.2025 16:00 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Sassuolo - Lazio

Italy Football
Sassuolo
Sassuolo
1 : 0
Finished
Lazio
Lazio

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Sassuolo - Lazio September 14, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Lazio.

Line favourite market consensus: Lazio. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 4.21 / X 3.51 / 2 1.88
  • 1X2 market: Sassuolo 22.6% / X 27.0% / Lazio 50.4%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 50.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.4%
1 22.5%
X 27.0%
2 50.4%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.4%
Over 2.5 49.9%
Under 2.5 50.1%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 14.09.2025 16:00 UTC
Match center

Sassuolo - Lazio

Form 2/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.88 market consensus · line only
X 3.51 market consensus · line only
1 4.23 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.23 market consensus · line only
12 1.30 market consensus · line only
1X 1.91 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.25 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.07 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 1.89 market consensus · line only
2 +1 2.63 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.92 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.91 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.00 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.77 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
4.46 22.4%
X 3.51 28.5%
1.92 52.1%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
4.20 23.8% 4.35 23.0% 4.40 22.7% 3.90 25.6% 4.50 22.2% 4.40 22.7%
X 3.55 28.2% 3.65 27.4% 3.55 28.2% 3.40 29.4% 3.50 28.6% 3.50 28.6%
1.86 53.8% 1.85 54.1% 1.88 53.2% 1.85 54.1% 1.83 54.6% 1.85 54.1%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Dafabet Marathonbet
no 1.95 51.3% 2.02 49.5% 1.98 50.5% 2.00 50.0% 1.95 51.3% 2.00 50.0% 1.95 51.3% 2.08 48.1% 1.95 51.3%
yes 1.77 56.5% 1.80 55.6% 1.82 55.0% 1.75 57.1% 1.80 55.6% 1.75 57.1% 1.80 55.6% 1.76 56.8% 1.76 56.8%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Dafabet
draw_away 1.22 82.0% 1.23 81.3% 1.22 82.0% 1.18 84.8% 1.23 81.3% 1.30 76.9%
home_away 1.25 80.0% 1.31 76.3% 1.30 76.9% 1.28 78.1% 1.29 77.5% 1.30 76.9%
home_draw 1.91 52.4% 1.95 51.3% 1.85 54.1% 1.91 52.4% 1.98 50.5% 1.72 58.1%
Match center
Sassuolo
L L
29.08 16:30 UTC Serie A
Sassuolo 2:3 CremoneseCremonese
23.08 16:30 UTC Serie A
Sassuolo 0:2 NapoliNapoli
0 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
1.0 Scored
2.5 Conceded
0 Points
Lazio
W L L D D
31.08 18:45 UTC Serie A
Lazio 4:0 Hellas VeronaHellas Verona
24.08 16:30 UTC Serie A
Lazio 0:2 ComoComo
25.05 18:45 UTC Serie A
Lazio 0:1 LecceLecce
18.05 18:45 UTC Serie A
Lazio 2:2 InterInter
10.05 16:00 UTC Serie A
Lazio 1:1 JuventusJuventus
1 Wins
2 Draws
2 Losses
1.4 Scored
1.2 Conceded
5 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historySassuolo - Lazio

Sassuolo
0 matches total
Lazio
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history