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Serie A Italy

37 round 17.05.2026 18:45 UTC Match prediction

17.05.2026 18:45 UTC 37 round

Finished

Serie A

Sassuolo - Lecce

Italy Football

Sassuolo

2 : 3

Finished

Lecce

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Sassuolo - Lecce May 17, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Sassuolo.

Line favourite market consensus: Sassuolo. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.66 / X 3.14 / 2 2.75
1X2 market: Sassuolo 35.5% / X 30.1% / Lecce 34.3%
Total 2.5: over probability 54.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.8%

1 35.5%

X 30.1%

2 34.4%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.2%

Over 2.5 45.1%

Under 2.5 54.9%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: Sassuolo

Main outcome Sassuolo

Agreement 1/1

Confidence 37.0%

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center

Stadium Mapey - Chitta-del-Trikolore (Redzho-nel-Emiliya, Italy), vmestimost: 23717

Referee Federiko La Penna (Rim)

Start 17.05.2026 18:45 UTC

Match center

Sassuolo - Lecce

Itogovyy protokol and rezultaty vstrechi Sassuolo - Lechche, 17 maya 2026. Highlights and statistika matches, tochnyy schet. Championship Italy po futbolu (Seriya A) 2025-2026, 37 round. Sassuolo - Lechche, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matches.

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 2:3

Events 20

Statistics 22

Lineups 50

min Event Player Team

14' 14' Normal Goal | W. Cheddira Walid Cheddira Lecce

20' 20' Normal Goal | A. Lauriente | assist/sub out: Pedro Felipe A. Laurienté Sassuolo

25' 25' Normal Goal | W. Cheddira | assist/sub out: L. Banda Walid Cheddira Lecce

54' 54' Yellow Card | Y. Ramadani Y. Ramadani Lecce

63' 63' Substitution 1 | L. Banda | assist/sub out: G. Jean Lameck Banda Lecce

63' 63' Substitution 1 | M. Nzola | assist/sub out: A. Pinamonti M'Bala Nzola Sassuolo

63' 63' Substitution 2 | N. Matic | assist/sub out: L. Lipani N. Matić Sassuolo

72' 72' Substitution 3 | I. Kone | assist/sub out: D. Bakola I. Kone Sassuolo

Metric Sassuolo Lecce SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 2.02 0.86 final

Zablokirovannye udary 3 1 final

Shots off target 6 4 final

Shots on target 6 6 final

Udary vsego 15 11 final

Fouls soversheno 7 13 final

Zheltye kartochki 1 4 final

Offsides 2 2 final

Sassuolo #13 S. Turati, #23 U. Garcia, #45 A. Laurienté, #90 I. Kone, #8 M'Bala Nzola, #18 N. Matić, #80 T. Muharemovic, #10 D. Berardi, #42 K. Thorstvedt, #66 Pedro Felipe, #25 W. Coulibaly

Lecce #19 Lameck Banda, #25 Antonino Gallo, #30 Wladimiro Falcone, #79 O. Ngom, #99 Walid Cheddira, #20 Y. Ramadani, #29 Lassana Coulibaly, #44 Tiago Gabriel, #5 J. Siebert, #50 Santiago Pierotti, #17 Danilo Veiga

Player Team Metric SStats

Antonino Gallo Lecce football.player.assists 0

Antonino Gallo Lecce football.player.minutes_played 90

Danilo Veiga Lecce football.player.assists 0

Danilo Veiga Lecce football.player.minutes_played 85

F. Camarda Lecce football.player.assists 0

F. Camarda Lecce football.player.minutes_played 10

Gaby Jean Lecce football.player.assists 0

Gaby Jean Lecce football.player.minutes_played 27

J. Siebert Lecce football.player.assists 0

J. Siebert Lecce football.player.minutes_played 90

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 6.60 Fonbet · line only

X 1.33 Fonbet · line only

1 6.60 Fonbet · line only

Double chance

12 3.30 Fonbet · line only

1X 1.13 Fonbet · line only

X2 1.13 Fonbet · line only

Handicap

2 -1 1.15 Fonbet · line only

2 +1 2.25 Fonbet · line only

2 0 1.95 Fonbet · line only

1 -1 4.40 Fonbet · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.08 Fonbet · line only

Under 2.5 5.90 Fonbet · line only

Both teams to score

No 3.15 Fonbet · line only

Yes 1.33 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
	2.58 38.8%	2.85 35.1%	2.63 38.0%	2.62 38.2%	2.65 37.7%	2.63 38.0%
X	3.15 31.8%	3.25 30.8%	3.00 33.3%	3.20 31.3%	3.10 32.3%	3.00 33.3%
	2.75 36.4%	2.80 35.7%	2.70 37.0%	2.75 36.4%	2.85 35.1%	2.80 35.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	1.95 51.3%	1.94 51.6%	1.95 51.3%	1.95 51.3%	1.98 50.5%	1.91 52.4%	1.91 52.4%	1.92 52.1%	2.00 50.0%
yes	1.80 55.6%	1.79 55.9%	1.83 54.6%	1.80 55.6%	1.78 56.2%	1.83 54.6%	1.78 56.2%	1.79 55.9%	1.75 57.1%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.48 67.6%	1.48 67.6%	1.44 69.4%	1.44 69.4%	1.50 66.7%	1.44 69.4%
home_away	1.30 76.9%	1.39 71.9%	1.36 73.5%	1.36 73.5%	1.35 74.1%	1.30 76.9%
home_draw	1.42 70.4%	1.50 66.7%	1.44 69.4%	1.40 71.4%	1.45 69.0%	1.44 69.4%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	1.07 93.5%	1.03 97.1%
Over 0.75	—	1.05 95.2%
Over 1.0	—	1.07 93.5%
Over 1.25	—	1.20 83.3%
Over 1.5	1.38 72.5%	1.33 75.2%
Over 1.75	—	1.43 69.9%
Over 2.0	—	1.56 64.1%
Over 2.25	—	1.92 52.1%
Over 2.5	2.10 47.6%	—
Over 3.5	3.80 26.3%	—
Over 4.5	7.50 13.3%	—
Under 0.5	8.00 12.5%	—
Under 1.5	3.00 33.3%	—
Under 2.5	1.70 58.8%	—
Under 3.5	1.25 80.0%	—
Under 4.5	1.08 92.6%	—

Match center

Sassuolo

No home-team absences found in the prematch data.

Lecce

No away-team absences found in the prematch data.

Edoardo Peranolo Fali Kande Daniel Boloka Dzhey Idzes Travmirovannye Medon Berisha Rikkardo Sottil

Match center

Sassuolo

L W D W L

08.05 18:45 UTC Serie A

Sassuolo 1:2 Torino

03.05 13:00 UTC Serie A

Sassuolo 2:0 AC Milan

26.04 10:30 UTC Serie A

Sassuolo 0:0 Fiorentina

17.04 16:30 UTC Serie A

Sassuolo 2:1 Como

12.04 10:30 UTC Serie A

Sassuolo 1:2 Genoa

2 Wins

1 Draws

2 Losses

1.2 Scored

1.0 Conceded

7 Points

Lecce

L W D D L

09.05 18:45 UTC Serie A

Lecce 0:1 Juventus

01.05 18:45 UTC Serie A

Lecce 2:1 Pisa

25.04 18:45 UTC Serie A

Lecce 0:0 Hellas Verona

20.04 18:45 UTC Serie A

Lecce 1:1 Fiorentina

12.04 16:00 UTC Serie A

Lecce 0:2 Bologna

1 Wins

2 Draws

2 Losses

0.6 Scored

1.0 Conceded

5 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historySassuolo - Lecce

Sassuolo

1 matches total

Lecce

Sassuolo: 0 (0%)

Draws:1 (100%)

Lecce: 0 (0%)

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw 0:0 (18.10 13:00 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0

0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

18.10 13:00 UTC

Serie A

Sassuolo

0:0

Lecce

Match center

Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.

Team 1 Sassuolo

Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket

Team 2 Lecce

36 Games 36

14 Wins 8

7 Draws 8

15 Losses 20

44 Scored 24

46 Conceded 48

49 Points 32

85.03 Attacks 92.56

37.03 Dangerous attacks 39.29

0 Big chances 0

10.42 Shots on goal 9.44

3.75 Shots on target 2.39

niya 1.72 0.11 Sendoffs 0.06 Goly Valid Kheddira 0:1 14' Arman Lorente Pedro Felipe 1 20' Valid Kheddira Lamek Banda 1:2 25' Andrea Pinamonti Ulisses Garsiya 2 82' Nikola Shtulich Omri Gandelman 2:3 90+6' Nakazaniya Yulber Ramadani 54' Tarik Mukharemovich 77' Danilu Veyga 81' Tyagu Gabriel 85' Antonino Gallo 90+1' VAR Kristian Torstvedt 28'

Sassuolo Lechche 36 Games 36 14 Wins 8 7 Draws 8 15 Losses 20 44 Scored 24 46 Conceded 48 49 Points 32 85.03 Attacks 92.56 37.03 Dangerous attacks 39.29 0 Big chances 0 10.42 Shots on goal 9.44 3.75 Udary v stvor 2.39 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 3.89 Uglovye 4.28 1.75 Offsaydy 1.14 12 Foly 12.69 45.33 % vladeniya myachom 42.25 2.19 Warnings 1.72 0.11 Sendoffs 0.06 Goly Valid Kheddira 0:1 14' Arman Lorente Pedro Felipe 1 20' Valid Kheddira Lamek Banda 1:2 25' Andrea Pinamonti Ulisses Garsiya 2 82' Nikola Shtulich Omri Gandelman 2:3 90+6' Nakazaniya Yulber Ramadani 54' Tarik Mukharemovich 77' Danilu Veyga 81' Tyagu Gabriel 85' Antonino Gallo 90+1' VAR Kristian Torstvedt 28'