Match center
Start
05.04.2026 00:00 UTC
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05.04.2026 00:00 UTC
Finished
Serie A
Vasco DA Gama - Botafogo
1
:
2
Finished
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Vasco DA Gama — 45%
Model estimate: win Vasco DA Gama 45.3%, draw 26.4%, win Botafogo 28.3%. Model favourite — Vasco DA Gama.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Vasco DA Gama - Botafogo April 5, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Vasco DA Gama.
Strongest: Vasco DA Gama - market and Glicko agree
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.21 / X 3.28 / 2 3.23
- 1X2 market: Vasco DA Gama 42.5% / X 28.5% / Botafogo 29.0%
- Glicko: Vasco DA Gama 45.3% / X 26.4% / Botafogo 28.3%
- Total 2.5: over probability 81.2%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 6.7%
1
42.4%
X
28.6%
2
29.0%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 5.5%
Over 2.5
47.6%
Under 2.5
52.4%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
AI
Model consensus
AI outcome leader: 1
Main outcome
Agreement
4/4
Confidence
44.0%
Total
Over 2.5
Score
2:1
Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.
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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model
Vasco DA Gama 45%
💹 Market
Vasco DA Gama 4248%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center
Vasco DA Gama - Botafogo
Vasco DA Gama: Win 2.00 Vasco DA Gama: Draw 3.40 Botafogo Win: 3.80 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.05 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.75 Individualnyy total golov Vasco DA Gama bolshe 1.5: 2.10 Individualnyy total golov Vasco DA Gama menshe 1.5: 1.67 Individualnyy tot…
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
4
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
yes
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
pending
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
1:2
Events
17
Statistics
24
Lineups
22
min
Event
Player
Team
0'
0' Yellow Card | G. Justino
Botafogo
41'
41' Yellow Card | A. Saldivia
Vasco DA Gama
46'
46' Substitution 1 | Alex Telles | assist/sub out: Caio Roque
D. Calvo
Botafogo
52'
52' Yellow Card | Junior Santos
João Alves
Botafogo
55'
55' Yellow Card | N. Ferraresi
Phillipp Mwene
Botafogo
60'
60' Substitution 4 | Junior Santos | assist/sub out: L. M. Villalba Jaume
João Alves
Botafogo
61'
61' Normal Goal | David | assist/sub out: J. Rodriguez
A. Valera
Vasco DA Gama
66'
66' Normal Goal | L. M. Villalba Jaume
Botafogo
Metric
Vasco DA Gama
Botafogo
SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG)
2.41
1.19
final
Zablokirovannye udary
6
3
final
Shots off target
6
6
final
Shots on target
5
9
final
Udary vsego
17
18
final
Fouls soversheno
11
16
final
Zheltye kartochki
2
4
final
Offsides
0
0
final
Vasco DA Gama
#1 Raul, #5 N. Ferraresi, #11 Matheus Martins, #13 Alex Telles, #19 Arthur Cabral, #20 A. Barboza, #25 Allan
Botafogo
#4 A. Saldivia, #30 Robert Renan, #66 Cuiabano
Player
Team
Metric
SStats
A. Saldivia
Botafogo
football.player.assists
0
A. Saldivia
Botafogo
Dribling popytki
6
A. Saldivia
Botafogo
Edinoborstva vsego
3
A. Saldivia
Botafogo
Edinoborstva vyigrano
10
A. Saldivia
Botafogo
Fouls soversheno
2
A. Saldivia
Botafogo
Seyvy
0
A. Saldivia
Botafogo
football.player.minutes_played
90
A. Saldivia
Botafogo
Klyuchevye pasy
54
A. Saldivia
Botafogo
Pasy vsego
1
A. Saldivia
Botafogo
Reyting (staryy)
6.3
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Vasco DA Gama
42.6%
45.3%
market and model agree
Draw
28.3%
26.4%
draw risk
Botafogo
29.1%
28.3%
xG
-
1.44 : 1.08
Total 2.5
Over 81.2%
-
Under 18.8%
Model check
-
-
Difference 0.03
Draw-trap risk
Favourite-trap risk
The match leans toward a high total
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.03
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
45.3% / 26.4% / 28.3%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,542 / 1,508
Vasco DA Gama / Botafogo
RD
112 / 113
rating uncertainty
HFA: -
HFA mu: -
MoV: -
N: N=1
P: glicko2_expected
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
3.23
market consensus · no value · model 28.3%
X
3.28
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
2.21
market consensus · no value · model 45.3%
Double chance
X2
1.64
market consensus · no value · model 54.7%
12
1.31
market consensus · no value · model 73.7%
1X
1.34
market consensus · no value · model 71.7%
Handicap
2 -0.5
1.65
market consensus · line only
2 -1
1.28
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
3.15
market consensus · line only
2 +1
5.50
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.99
market consensus · weak value +61.5% · model 81.2%
Under 2.5
1.81
market consensus · no value · model 18.8%
Both teams to score
No
1.97
market consensus · line only
Yes
1.75
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.22 45.1% | 2.29 43.7% | 2.20 45.5% | 2.27 44.1% | 2.15 46.5% | 2.20 45.5% | |
| X | 3.30 30.3% | 3.29 30.4% | 3.20 31.3% | 3.30 30.3% | 3.40 29.4% | 3.30 30.3% |
| 3.15 31.8% | 3.31 30.2% | 3.20 31.3% | 3.30 30.3% | 3.10 32.3% | 3.13 32.0% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | BetVictor | Marathonbet | Unibet | William Hill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.95 51.3% | 1.98 50.5% | 1.95 51.3% | 2.00 50.0% | 1.95 51.3% | 1.95 51.3% | 2.02 49.5% | 1.95 51.3% |
| yes | 1.75 57.1% | 1.74 57.5% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.75 57.1% | 1.75 57.1% | 1.74 57.5% | 1.70 58.8% | 1.75 57.1% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 1.62 61.7% | 1.64 61.0% | 1.67 59.9% | 1.67 59.9% | 1.67 59.9% | 1.57 63.7% |
| home_away | 1.25 80.0% | 1.34 74.6% | 1.36 73.5% | 1.32 75.8% | 1.30 76.9% | 1.29 77.5% |
| home_draw | 1.35 74.1% | 1.34 74.6% | 1.36 73.5% | 1.36 73.5% | 1.33 75.2% | 1.33 75.2% |
Goals Over/Under
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.06 94.3% | 1.02 98.0% |
| Over 0.75 | — | 1.03 97.1% |
| Over 1.0 | — | 1.04 96.2% |
| Over 1.25 | — | 1.16 86.2% |
| Over 1.5 | 1.33 75.2% | 1.28 78.1% |
| Over 1.75 | — | 1.36 73.5% |
| Over 2.0 | — | 1.47 68.0% |
| Over 2.25 | — | 1.71 58.5% |
| Over 2.5 | 2.00 50.0% | — |
| Over 3.5 | 3.55 28.2% | — |
| Over 4.5 | 7.00 14.3% | — |
| Under 0.5 | 8.50 11.8% | — |
| Under 1.5 | 3.25 30.8% | — |
| Under 2.5 | 1.80 55.6% | — |
| Under 3.5 | 1.28 78.1% | — |
| Under 4.5 | 1.09 91.7% | — |
Match center
Vasco DA Gama
Founded
1898
Botafogo
Founded
1904
Match center
Vasco DA Gama
CS
C. Spinelli
Inactive
J
Jair
Knee Injury
Botafogo
AT
Alex Telles
Injury
M
Marçal
Inactive
Vasco DA Gama
Founded: 1898
Botafogo
Founded: 1904
Match center
Full head-to-head historyVasco DA Gama - Botafogo
Vasco DA Gama
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Match center
The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.
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- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form