PropickAI PropickAI
Sign in Sign up
English

AI verdict

AI pick Napoli win probability ~38% confidence Low best odds 2.55

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Napoli. Full breakdown below.

Picks locked before kickoff results verified after public accuracy log →
Full Access Go deeper than the free pick Your free pick and probability are below. Full Access adds the full 7-AI consensus, every value-edge pick, math-model probabilities and complete reports for every match.
Get Full Access →
Serie A
Serie A Italy
30.08.2026 16:30 UTC Match prediction
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction
30.08.2026 16:30 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Napoli vs Como — Football prediction

Italy Football
Stadium Diego Armando Maradona
Referee L. Pairetto
Napoli
Napoli
1 : 2
Finished
Como
Como

Napoli face Como in football, in Serie A, on 30 August 2026. The PropickAI Glicko-2 model rates Napoli as the favourite at around 38%. The bookmaker consensus (6 books) implies about 38% for the same outcome. The model puts the chance of a draw at 31%.

Recent form reads: Napoli have 3 won, 1 drawn and 1 lost of their last 5; Como have 3 won, 1 drawn and 1 lost of 5. Napoli arrive on a winning run. Glicko ratings: Napoli 1677, Como 1673, a gap of 4 points. Across 3 recent head-to-head meetings between them, the full record is shown below on this page.

Our model and the market consensus broadly agree on this match. Model confidence in the favourite is low. The match is close, and the model flags no clear safer edge. Key markers: an edge of 4 Glicko rating points, the model's 38% for Napoli. Below on this page: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PropickAI AI breakdown. This is a probability read from our model plus the market line, not a guaranteed outcome.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Napoli — 38%

1 · Napoli38.2%
X · draw31.0%
2 · Como30.8%

Model estimate: win Napoli 38.2%, draw 31.0%, win Como 30.8%. Model favourite — Napoli.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

🎯 Safe pick confident

Double chance — Como or draw 1.02

Model confidence 71% ~81% on our history

How often this pick wins on our settled history — not a profit forecast.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown
AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

Xdraw (odds3.13) Score 1:1 confidence 50% ✗ outcome missed
  • • liniya na pik X 3.30→3.10 (ukorotilas — dengi na pik)
  • • Model backs nichyu: probability 50% vs 32% on the line (odds 3.13)
  • • edge over the line +18 pp — value pick
  • • Expected score 1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Napoli - Como August 30, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Como.

Line favourite Fonbet: Como. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 2.55 / X 5.50 / 2 1.04
  • Glicko: Napoli 38.2% / X 31.0% / Como 30.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.9% 5 books · best price +1.2%
1 37.8%
X 31.4%
2 30.8%

Odds source: consensus of 5 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Model O/U (market-implied)

Total 2.0 2 books
Over 2.0 53.4%
Under 2.0 46.6%

Market-implied probability from the frozen pre-kickoff consensus line — reference, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 1 2.35 ↓ 2.30
1X2 X 3.30 ↓ 3.15
1X2 2 3.20 ↑ 3.40

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Serie A
League table
Napoli
#103 ptsGP 21-0-13:2
Como
#54 ptsGP 21-1-03:2
Best price across 13 books
1 2.62 1xBet
X 3.12 1xBet
2 3.20 Bet365

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Napoli
W-D-L 6-2-2 Scored 1.52 Conceded 0.58 xG 1.65 xGA 0.81 Corners 6.0
Como
W-D-L 5-3-2 Scored 1.77 Conceded 0.81 xG 1.81 xGA 0.87 Corners 6.1

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Injuries and absences
A. Buongiorno — Knee Injury P. Mazzocchi — Knee Injury Michael Folorunsho — Inactive W. Kambwala — Transfer negotiations J. Addai — Achilles Tendon Injury Luca Marianucci — Knee Injury

Source: sstats_content

Model form (Glicko)
Napoli
Rating 1665 xG 1.32 Win 39%
Como
Rating 1622 xG 1.21 Win 34%

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Napoli
38%
60.00
Draw
31%
5.50
Como
30%
3.10
Handicap
Napoli (0)
56%
11.00
Como (0)
44%
2.13
Total
Over 23.5
51%
1.76
Under 23.5
49%
1.85
Both teams to score
Yes
39%
5.00
No
61%
3.25

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Play-by-play

Match timeline

NapoliComo
  • 7' Goal Como
  • 9' Goal Napoli
  • 12' Goal Napoli
  • 15' Goal Napoli
  • 17' Goal Como
  • 17' Goal Como
  • 19' Goal Como
  • 28' Goal Napoli
  • 30' Goal Napoli
  • 30' Goal Napoli
  • 33' Goal Napoli
  • 34' Goal Napoli
  • 34' Goal Como
  • 34' Goal Como
  • 37' Yellow card Napoli
  • 38' Red card Napoli
  • 45' Goal Napoli
  • 45' Goal Napoli
  • 45' Goal Napoli
  • 50' Goal Napoli
  • 52' Goal Napoli
  • 52' Goal Napoli
  • 55' Goal Como
  • 56' Substitution Napoli
  • 56' Substitution Napoli
  • 56' Substitution Napoli
  • 58' Substitution Como
  • 59' Substitution Como
  • 66' Substitution Como
  • 66' Substitution Como
  • 75' Red card Como
  • 75' Red card Napoli
  • 80' Goal Como
  • 80' Substitution Napoli
  • 80' Substitution Napoli
  • 82' Substitution Como
  • 83' Goal Como
  • 84' Goal Como
  • 88' Goal Napoli
  • 90' Goal Como
  • 90' Goal Napoli
  • 90' Goal Napoli
  • 90' Goal Napoli

Play-by-play: gismo. For reference.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Napoli 1 : 1 Como
12.62
X3.13
23.20

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

Unlock the full AI analysis

Get the 7-AI consensus, math-model probabilities, value picks and full reports for every match with Full Access.

Get Full Access →
Participant opinions
963 predictions Choose an outcome
1 71% 686
X 25% 249
2 2% 28
Match center
Stadium Diego Armando Maradona
Referee L. Pairetto
Start 30.08.2026 16:30 UTC
Market 1 25.5% @ 2.55 / X 11.8% @ 5.50 / 2 62.6% @ 1.04
Weather +28°C solnechno
Broadcasts MATCh! Football 1, MEGOGO
🥊 Humans vs Machines
👥 Community Napoli 71%
📐 Math model Napoli 38%
💹 Market Napoli 38%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
🏦 Virtual bank $10,000
$10,000Virtual balance

Play free: you start with $10,000 in virtual money. Bet on this match at our odds, then track your profit and climb the global leaderboard. No real money, no sign-up.

My virtual bank & leaderboard →
Match center

Napoli - Como

Napoli: win 2.55 Napoli: draw 3.00 Como win: 3.00 Obschiy Total goals Over 2.5: 2.30 Obschiy Total goals Under 2.5: 1.62 Individualnyy Total goals Napoli Over 1.5: 2.62 Individualnyy Total goals Napoli Under 1.5: 1.44 Individualnyy Total goals Como Over 0.5: 1.44 I…

Lineups 11/11 probable starting lineup
Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 3 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:2
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 38.2% fact: away missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.720 / LogLoss 1.176
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 38.2% fact: away missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.720 / LogLoss 1.176
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Napoli 37.9% 38.2% market and model agree
Draw 31.4% 31.0% draw risk
Como 30.8% 30.8%
xG - 1.32 : 1.20
1X2: 6 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 38.2% / 31.0% / 30.8% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,677 / 1,673 Napoli / Como
RD 103 / 100 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,471-1,882 / 1,472-1,874 strength interval

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.04 Fonbet · no value · model 30.8%
X 5.50 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.50 market consensus · no value · model 38.2%
Double chance
12 1.13 Fonbet · no value · model 69.0%
1X 8.50 Fonbet · weak value +487.8% · model 69.2%
X2 1.02 Fonbet · no value · model 61.8%
Handicap
2 -1 1.17 Fonbet · line only
2 +1 2.50 Fonbet · line only
2 0 1.01 Fonbet · line only
2 0.5 1.53 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.12 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 5.10 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 3.25 Fonbet · line only
Yes 1.30 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Kambi BetMGM Kambi Unibet Leon
no 3.25 30.8% 1.84 54.4% 1.84 54.4% 1.87 53.5%
yes 1.30 76.9% 5.00 20.0% 5.00 20.0% 1.83 54.6%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet Kambi BetMGM Kambi Unibet
12 1.37 73.0% 1.38 72.5% 1.13 88.5% 1.68 59.5% 1.68 59.5%
1x 1.36 73.5% 1.38 72.5% 8.50 11.8% 1.22 82.0% 1.22 82.0%
x2 1.50 66.7% 1.53 65.4% 1.02 98.0% 1.29 77.5% 1.29 77.5%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
3.21 31.2%
X 2.00 50.0%
3.74 26.7%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 2.17 46.1%
Under 1 1.61 62.1%
Match center
4-3-3 4-2-3-1
1 Aleks Meret
13 Amir Rrakhmani
16 Rafael Zamora
17 Matias Oliveyra
22 Dzhovanni Di Lorentso
8 Skott Maktominey
68 Stanislav Lobotka
99 Andre-Frank Zambo-Angissa
19 Rasmus Khoylunn
21 Matteo Politano
70 Noa Lang
1 Zhan Byute
3 Aleks Vale
4 Khakobo Ramon
27 Ian Koutu
99 Trevo Chaloba
6 Luis Milla
7 Lukas Yes Kunya
10 Niko Pas
11 Assane Diao
20 Martin Baturina
9 Anastasios Duvikas
Napoli
Formation 4-3-3
Probable starting lineup
1 AMAleks Meret Aleks Meret
13 ARAmir Rrakhmani Amir Rrakhmani
16 RZRafael Zamora Rafael Zamora
17 MOMatias Oliveyra Matias Oliveyra
22 DDDzhovanni Di Lorentso Dzhovanni Di Lorentso
8 SMSkott Maktominey Skott Maktominey
68 SLStanislav Lobotka Stanislav Lobotka
99 AZAndre-Frank Zambo-Angissa Andre-Frank Zambo-Angissa
19 RKRasmus Khoylunn Rasmus Khoylunn
21 MPMatteo Politano Matteo Politano
70 NLNoa Lang Noa Lang
Head coach Massimiliano Allegri
Como
Formation 4-2-3-1
Probable starting lineup
1 ZBZhan Byute Zhan Byute
3 AVAleks Vale Aleks Vale
4 KRKhakobo Ramon Khakobo Ramon
27 IKIan Koutu Ian Koutu
99 TCTrevo Chaloba Trevo Chaloba
6 LMLuis Milla Luis Milla
7 LYLukas Yes Kunya Lukas Yes Kunya
10 NPNiko Pas Niko Pas
11 ADAssane Diao Assane Diao
20 MBMartin Baturina Martin Baturina
9 ADAnastasios Duvikas Anastasios Duvikas
Head coach Sesk Fabregas
Napoli

No home-team absences found in the prematch data.

Como

No away-team absences found in the prematch data.

Formations 4-3-3 / 4-2-3-1
SStats Market - Glicko - Form - H2H
Match center
Napoli Team form Como
10 Matches 10
20 Goals 17
2.0 Per match 1.7
6 Wins 5
2 Draws 3
2 Losses 2

Form & head-to-head

H2H 1-3-2, avg 2.0 gls
2026-08-30 · Napoli 1:2 Komo
2026-05-02 · Napoli 0:0 Komo
2026-02-10 · Napoli 1:1 Komo
2025-11-01 · Napoli 0:0 Komo
2025-02-23 · Napoli 1:2 Komo
Source: ruscore

Odds · 5 bookmakers

Best price: 1 2.45 (Pari) · X 3.3 (Betcity) · 2 3.2 (Betcity)
Bookmaker1X2
Pari 2.45 3.2 3.1
Winline 2.43 3.15 3.15
Fonbet 2.45 3.2 3.1
Betcity 2.34 3.3 3.2
Liga Stavok 2.31 3.2 3.2
Source: ruscore · line comparison

Match stats

42% Ball possession 58%
10 Vsego udarov 19
2 Shots on target 6
5 Shots off target 8
10 Udary ot vorot 6
3 Blokirovannye udary 5
4 Shtrafnye 9
2 Corners 7
9 Offsides 0
12 Auty 8
4 Saves 1
9 Fouls 5
1 Cards total 0
1 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0
0 Second yellows 0
2 Travmy 1
5 Substitutions 5
Source: ruscore
Napoli
W W D W W
2026-08-22 Serie A 26/27
Napoli Genoa 0:2 Napoli
2026-08-12 Club Friendly Games 2026
Napoli Napoli 6:2 Aris Thessaloniki
2026-08-08 Club Friendly Games 2026
Napoli Napoli 1:1 Celta
2026-08-05 Club Friendly Games 2026
Napoli Napoli 2:1 Osasuna
2026-07-26 Club Friendly Games 2026
Napoli Napoli 2:0 Carrarese
4 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
2.6 Scored
0.8 Conceded
13 Points
Como
D L D W D
2026-08-22 Serie A 26/27
Udinese 1:1 Como Como
2026-08-16 Club Friendly Games 2026
Liverpool 2:0 Como Como
2026-08-12 Club Friendly Games 2026
Arsenal 1:1 Como Como
2026-07-31 Club Friendly Games 2026
Famalicao 2:3 Como Como
2026-07-24 Club Friendly Games 2026
Como 2:2 Paris FC Como
1 Wins
3 Draws
1 Losses
1.4 Scored
1.6 Conceded
6 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head history: Napoli - Como

Napoli
3 matches total
Como
Napoli: 0 (0%)
Draws:3 (100%)
Como: 0 (0%)
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw 0:0 (2026-05-02) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0
0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

2026-05-02 Serie A 25/26
Como 0:0 Napoli
02.05 16:00 UTC Seriya A
Napoli
0:0
Komo
01.11 17:00 UTC Seriya A
Napoli
0:0
Komo
Match center
Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.
Team 1 Napoli
Data 0 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket
Team 2 Como
Matches in history 29
Biggest draw 1:1
Highest-scoring match 7:1
Seriya A 26 / 18 / 6 / 2 / 54 / 16
Cup Italy 3 / 1 / 2 / 0 / 4 / 3

More predictions

Inter – Napoli 05.09 Genoa – Como 06.09 Como – Parma 13.09 Napoli – Bologna 13.09 Fiorentina – Torino 05.09 AS Roma – Atalanta 05.09

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Napoli vs Como?

By the PropickAI model, Como is favoured — about 38% win probability.

What does PropickAI predict for Napoli vs Como?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Como. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

What are the bookmaker odds for Napoli vs Como?

Live odds for Napoli vs Como from multiple bookmakers are listed on this page and refresh as the market moves.

When does Napoli vs Como start?

August 30, 2026.