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North I TsENTRALNAYa AMERIKA: Central American & Caribbean Games Women - Playoff
North I TsENTRALNAYa AMERIKA: Central American & Caribbean Games Women - Playoff
06.08.2026 23:00 UTC
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction
06.08.2026 23:00 UTC
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North I TsENTRALNAYa AMERIKA: Central American & Caribbean Games Women - Playoff

Colombia (w) - Mexico (w)

Football
Colombia (w)
Colombia (w)
- : -
Not started
Mexico (w)
Mexico (w)

Colombia (w) meet Mexico (w) on August 6, 2026 in the North I TsENTRALNAYa AMERIKA: Central American & Caribbean Games Women - Playoff.

Recent form (W-D-L): Colombia (w) 0-1-0, Mexico (w) 0-1-0. Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PrognozAI neural-network verdict.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Colombia (w) — 37%

Pure model vs market (1 · Colombia (w)): model 48% · market 37% Δ +11 pp model estimates above the market

1 · Colombia (w)37.2%
X · draw27.4%
2 · Mexico (w)35.4%

Model estimate: win Colombia (w) 37.2%, draw 27.4%, win Mexico (w) 35.4%. Model favourite — Colombia (w).

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Colombia (w) (odds2.52) Score 1:0 confidence 50%
  • • Model backs Colombia (Zh): probability 50% vs 40% on the line (odds 2.52)
  • • edge over the line +10 pp — value pick
  • • Expected score 1:0.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Colombia (w) - Mexico (w) August 6, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Colombia (w). We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.50 / X 3.30 / 2 2.55

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 9.5% 3 books
1 36.5%
X 27.7%
2 35.8%

Odds source: consensus of 3 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 06.08.2026 23:00 UTC
Market 1 36.5% @ 2.50 / X 27.7% @ 3.30 / 2 35.8% @ 2.55
Match center

Colombia (w) - Mexico (w)

Form 1/1 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Line
More needed
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Colombia (w) 36.5% 37.2% market and model agree
Draw 27.7% 27.4% draw risk
Mexico (w) 35.8% 35.4%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 37.2% / 27.4% / 35.4% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,776 / 1,705 Colombia (w) / Mexico (w)
RD 182 / 195 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,412-2,139 / 1,315-2,095 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.54 market consensus · no value · model 35.4%
X 3.29 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.50 market consensus · no value · model 37.2%
Double chance
12 1.27 market consensus · no value · model 72.6%
1X 1.43 market consensus · no value · model 64.6%
X2 1.45 market consensus · no value · model 62.8%
Handicap
2 0 1.85 market consensus · line only
1 0 1.85 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.94 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.75 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
12 1.25 80.0% 1.29 77.5%
1x 1.41 70.9% 1.45 69.0%
x2 1.42 70.4% 1.47 68.0%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
3.07 32.6%
X 2.18 45.9%
3.07 32.6%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 1.80 55.6%
Under 1 1.90 52.6%

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Leon
1.84 54.4% 1.85 54.1% 1.85 54.1%
1.84 54.4% 1.85 54.1% 1.85 54.1%
Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 0-4-2, avg 1.67 gls
2026-07-31 · Colombia (Zh) 0:1 Mexico (Zh)
2025-07-02 · Colombia (Zh) 0:1 Mexico (Zh)
2025-06-28 · Colombia (Zh) 0:0 Mexico (Zh)
2023-02-22 · Colombia (Zh) 1:1 Mexico (Zh)
2019-08-03 · Colombia (Zh) 2:2 Mexico (Zh)
Source: ruscore
Colombia (w)
D
04.08 19:00 UTC North I TsENTRALNAYa AMERIKA: Central American & Caribbean Games Women - Playoff
Colombia (w) 2:2 Venezuela (Zh)
0 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
2.0 Scored
2.0 Conceded
1 Points
Mexico (w)
D
05.08 00:00 UTC North I TsENTRALNAYa AMERIKA: Central American & Caribbean Games Women - Playoff
Mexico (w) 1:1 Salvador (Zh)
0 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.0 Conceded
1 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyColombia (w) - Mexico (w)

Colombia (w)
0 matches total
Mexico (w)
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history