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North I TsENTRALNAYa AMERIKA: Central American & Caribbean Games Women - Playoff
North I TsENTRALNAYa AMERIKA: Central American & Caribbean Games Women - Playoff
04.08.2026 23:00 UTC
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction
04.08.2026 23:00 UTC
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North I TsENTRALNAYa AMERIKA: Central American & Caribbean Games Women - Playoff

Mexico (w) - El Salvador (w)

Football
Mexico (w)
Mexico (w)
- : -
Not started
E
El Salvador (w)

Mexico (w) take on El Salvador (w) on August 4, 2026 in the North I TsENTRALNAYa AMERIKA: Central American & Caribbean Games Women - Playoff.

Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Mexico (w) — 74%

Pure model vs market (1 · Mexico (w)): model 48% · market 75% Δ −27 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Mexico (w) ✓ Pick73.5%
market75%
X · draw18.8%
market19%
2 · El Salvador (w)7.7%
market6%

Model estimate: win Mexico (w) 73.5%, draw 18.8%, win El Salvador (w) 7.7%. Model favourite — Mexico (w).

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Mexico (w) (odds2.03) Score 1:0 confidence 50%
  • • Model backs Mexico (Zh): probability 50% vs 49% on the line (odds 2.03)
  • • legkiy pereves +1 pp nad liniey
  • • Expected score 1:0.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Mexico (w) - El Salvador (w) August 4, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Mexico (w). We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.22 / X 5.40 / 2 15.00

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 10.0% 3 books
1 ✓ Pick 75.2%
X 18.6%
2 6.3%

Odds source: consensus of 3 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

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Match center
Start 04.08.2026 23:00 UTC
Market 1 76.5% @ 1.22 / X 17.3% @ 5.40 / 2 6.2% @ 15.00
Match center

Mexico (w) - El Salvador (w)

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Mexico (w) 75.2% 73.5% market and model agree
Draw 18.6% 18.8% draw risk
El Salvador (w) 6.3% 7.7%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 73.5% / 18.8% / 7.7% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,735 / 1,661 Mexico (w) / El Salvador (w)
RD 219 / 191 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,298-2,173 / 1,280-2,043 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
X 5.07 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.21 market consensus · no value · model 73.5%
Double chance
12 1.13 market consensus · no value · model 81.2%
X2 3.75 market consensus · no value · model 26.5%
Handicap
2 0 7.50 market consensus · line only
1 0 1.05 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.54 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.29 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
12 1.11 90.1% 1.14 87.7%
x2 3.60 27.8% 3.90 25.6%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
1.59 62.9%
X 2.70 37.0%
9.00 11.1%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1.5 2.22 45.1%
Under 1.5 1.59 62.9%

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Leon
— — 1.65 60.6%
1.99 50.3% 2.00 50.0% 2.05 48.8%
— — 1.05 95.2%
— — 2.10 47.6%
1.71 58.5% 1.72 58.1% 1.70 58.8%
— — 7.50 13.3%
Match center

Form & head-to-head

Mexico (w)WWDLWWWWWW
El Salvador (w)WLWWDWWWLW
Source: ruscore

Odds · 3 bookmakers

Best price: 1 1.15 (Betcity) · X 6.6 (Liga Stavok) · 2 16 (Betcity)
Bookmaker1X2
Winline 1.14 6.4 15
Betcity 1.15 6 16
Liga Stavok 1.15 6.6 15
Source: ruscore · line comparison
Mexico (w)
W W D L W
02.08 20:00 UTC+0 North I TsENTRALNAYa AMERIKA: Central American & Caribbean Games Women Standings
Mexico (w) 7:0 Jamaica (Zh)Jamaica (Zh)
31.07 23:00 UTC+0 Fonbet football live
Mexico (w) 1:0 Colombia (Zh)Colombia (Zh)
29.07 21:00 UTC+0 North I TsENTRALNAYa AMERIKA: Central American & Caribbean Games Women Standings
Mexico (w) 1:1 Puerto-Riko (Zh)
09.06 07:00 UTC+0 World: Mezhdunarodnye Friendlies - Women
Mexico (w) 1:3 Australia (Zh)Australia (Zh)
06.06 07:15 UTC+0 World: Mezhdunarodnye Friendlies - Women
Mexico (w) 1:0 Australia (Zh)Australia (Zh)
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
2.2 Scored
0.8 Conceded
10 Points
El Salvador (w)
W L W W D
02.08 23:00 UTC+0 North I TsENTRALNAYa AMERIKA: Central American & Caribbean Games Women Standings
El Salvador (w) 1:0 Costa Rica (Zh)Costa Rica (Zh)
31.07 20:00 UTC+0 Fonbet football live
El Salvador (w) 0:2 Venezuela (Zh)Venezuela (Zh)
29.07 21:00 UTC+0 North I TsENTRALNAYa AMERIKA: Central American & Caribbean Games Women Standings
El Salvador (w) 1:0 Dominican Republic (Zh)
09.06 19:00 UTC+0 World: Mezhdunarodnye Friendlies - Women
El Salvador (w) 5:1 Gvatemala (Zh)Gvatemala (Zh)
06.06 00:00 UTC+0 World: Mezhdunarodnye Friendlies - Women
El Salvador (w) 1:1 Costa Rica (Zh)Costa Rica (Zh)
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
1.6 Scored
0.8 Conceded
10 Points