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CONCACAF Championship. U20. Group stage. Mexico
CONCACAF Championship. U20. Group stage. Mexico
28.07.2026 00:00 UTC Match prediction
28.07.2026 00:00 UTC
Finished

CONCACAF Championship. U20. Group stage. Mexico

Costa Rica U20 - Mexico U20

Football
C
Costa Rica U20
0 : 2
Finished
Mexico U20
Mexico U20
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

2 Mexico U20 — 67%

Pure model vs market (2 · Mexico U20): model 28% · market 70% Δ −42 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Costa Rica U2013.2%
market11%
X · draw19.9%
market19%
2 · Mexico U20 ✓ Pick67.0%
market70%

Model estimate: win Costa Rica U20 13.2%, draw 19.9%, win Mexico U20 67.0%. Model favourite — Mexico U20.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Costa Rica U20 (odds1.73) Score 2:0 confidence 66% ✗ outcome missed
  • • Model backs Costa Rica U20: probability 66% vs 58% on the line (odds 1.73)
  • • edge over the line +8 pp — value pick
  • • Expected score 2:0.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Costa Rica U20 - Mexico U20 July 28, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Mexico U20.

Strongest: Mexico U20 - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 8.64 / X 4.76 / 2 1.30
  • 1X2 market: Costa Rica U20 10.6% / X 19.2% / Mexico U20 70.3%
  • Glicko: Costa Rica U20 13.2% / X 19.9% / Mexico U20 67.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 9.5%
1 10.6%
X 19.2%
2 ✓ Pick 70.2%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 1 6.90 ↑ 9.00
1X2 X 4.20 ↑ 4.40
1X2 2 1.37 ↓ 1.30

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

CONCACAF U20
Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Costa Rica U20
W-D-L 2-2-6 Scored 0.85 Conceded 2.87 xG 0.74 xGA 3.66
Mexico U20
W-D-L 4-2-4 Scored 1.78 Conceded 1.02 xG 1.07 xGA 2.08

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Costa Rica U20 1 : 1 Mexico U20
16.75
X4.30
21.39

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Participant opinions
17 predictions Choose an outcome
1 0% 0
X 0% 0
2 100% 2
Double chance X2 1.06 (1)
Total TM 2.5 2.04 (2) - TB 2.5 1.70 (1) - TB 3 2.16 (1)
Both teams to score BTTS yes 1.86 (2)
handicap1 handicap2:-1 1.66 (1) - handicap2:-1_5 2.23 (1)
Match center
Start 28.07.2026 00:00 UTC
🥊 Humans vs Machines
👥 Community Mexico U20 100%
📐 Math model Mexico U20 67%
💹 Market Mexico U20 7027%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Costa Rica U20 - Mexico U20

Form 1/1 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Line 1 source Stavka.tv
Player opinions Stavka.tv 2 combined layer without duplicates
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line Movement
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
yes Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 0:2
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 67.0% fact: away hit / ROI 39.0% / Brier 0.166 / LogLoss 0.401
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 67.0% fact: away hit / ROI 39.0% / Brier 0.166 / LogLoss 0.401
Glicko-2: public filter Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 67.0% fact: away hit / ROI 39.0% / Brier 0.166 / LogLoss 0.401
Glicko-2: precision filter Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 67.0% fact: away hit / ROI 39.0% / Brier 0.166 / LogLoss 0.401
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Costa Rica U20 10.9% 13.2%
Draw 19.7% 19.9% draw risk
Mexico U20 69.4% 67.0% market and model agree
1X2: 8 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 13.2% / 19.9% / 67.0% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,638 / 1,538 Costa Rica U20 / Mexico U20
RD 283 / 260 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,072-2,205 / 1,017-2,059 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.01 Fonbet · no value · model 67.0%
X 9.50 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 7.81 market consensus · no value · model 13.2%
Double chance
12 1.02 Fonbet · no value · model 80.1%
1X 10.00 Fonbet · no value · model 33.0%
X2 1.07 Fonbet · no value · model 86.8%
Handicap
2 -1 1.02 Fonbet · line only
2 +1 1.01 Fonbet · line only
2 0 1.09 Fonbet · line only
1 -1 10.00 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 6.70 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 1.06 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.20 Fonbet · line only
Yes 3.85 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 1xBet Bet365 Betfair Dafabet Superbet
9.60 10.4% 8.50 11.8% 9.00 11.1% 8.40 11.9% 7.70 13.0%
X 4.95 20.2% 4.50 22.2% 5.00 20.0% 4.70 21.3% 4.65 21.5%
1.26 79.4% 1.30 76.9% 1.25 80.0% 1.34 74.6% 1.33 75.2%

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 1.20 83.3% 1.79 55.9%
yes 3.85 26.0% 1.92 52.1%

Double chance

Outcome Fonbet
12 1.02 98.0%
1x 10.00 10.0%
x2 1.07 93.5%

Exact Score

Outcome 1xBet
0_0 11.50 8.7%
0_1 6.00 16.7%
0_10 65.00 1.5%
0_2 5.50 18.2%
0_3 7.00 14.3%
0_4 12.00 8.3%
0_5 21.00 4.8%
0_6 55.00 1.8%
0_7 65.00 1.5%
0_8 65.00 1.5%
0_9 65.00 1.5%
1_0 17.00 5.9%
1_1 9.00 11.1%
1_10 65.00 1.5%
1_2 8.00 12.5%
1_3 9.50 10.5%
1_4 15.00 6.7%
1_5 31.00 3.2%
Match center
Costa Rica U20
W
24.07 18:00 UTC North I TsENTRALNAYa AMERIKA: Championship KONKAKAF (do 20 let) Standings
Costa Rica U20 1:0 Gvatemala U20
1 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
1.0 Scored
0.0 Conceded
3 Points
Mexico U20
W
24.07 21:00 UTC North I TsENTRALNAYa AMERIKA: Championship KONKAKAF (do 20 let) Standings
Mexico U20 3:0 Antigua i Barbuda U20
1 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
3.0 Scored
0.0 Conceded
3 Points