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USA. MLS. Outrights
USA. MLS. Outrights
Cup lig MLS + MX. 1-y Round 06.08.2026 02:00 UTC Match prediction
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction
06.08.2026 02:00 UTC Cup lig MLS + MX. 1-y Round
Finished

USA. MLS. Outrights

Toluca - Seattle Sounders

Football
Toluca
Toluca
2 : 0
Finished
Seattle Sounders
Seattle Sounders

Toluca take on Seattle Sounders on August 6, 2026 in the USA. MLS. Outrights.

Recent form (W-D-L): Toluca 2-1-2, Seattle Sounders 0-0-5. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 71% to win. Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Toluca — 71%

Pure model vs market (1 · Toluca): model 59% · market 72% Δ −13 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Toluca ✓ Pick71.4%
market72%
X · draw17.6%
market17%
2 · Seattle Sounders11.0%
market10%

Model estimate: win Toluca 71.4%, draw 17.6%, win Seattle Sounders 11.0%. Model favourite — Toluca.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Toluca (odds1.68) Score 2:1 confidence 60% ✓ outcome correct
  • • Model backs Toluka: probability 60% vs 60% on the line (odds 1.68)
  • • legkiy pereves +0 pp nad liniey
  • • Expected score 2:1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Toluca - Seattle Sounders August 6, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Toluca.

Line favourite Fonbet: Toluca. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.03 / X 10.00 / 2 9.10
  • Glicko: Toluca 71.4% / X 17.6% / Seattle Sounders 11.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.8% 3 books
1 ✓ Pick 72.2%
X 17.4%
2 10.4%

Odds source: consensus of 3 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 1 1.30 ↓ 1.03
1X2 X 5.40 ↑ 10.00
1X2 2 9.00 ↑ 31.00

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Leagues Cup
League table
Toluca
#13 ptsGP 11-0-03:0
Seattle Sounders
#230 ptsGP 10-0-10:3
Best price across 14 books
1 1.34 Betano
X 6.00 Betano
2 9.25 Betano

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Toluca
W-D-L 5-4-1 Scored 1.94 Conceded 1.22 xG 1.81 xGA 1.44 Corners 5.6
Seattle Sounders
W-D-L 7-1-2 Scored 2.52 Conceded 0.82 xG 2.06 xGA 1.09 Corners 6.9

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 1/1
Confidence 62.0%

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Toluca
72%
1.31
Draw
17%
10.00
Seattle Sounders
11%
31.00
Total
Over 3.5
46%
6.00
Under 3.5
54%
1.76
Both teams to score
Yes
55%
11.00
No
45%
2.14

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Toluca 3 : 1 Seattle Sounders
11.30
X5.40
28.35

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

AI overview

AI predictions

AI analysis:2/7 ready · Still preparing:DeepSeek, ChatGPT, Qwen, Kimi, GLM 5.2

Google AI updated05.08.2026 23:01 UTC
1 75% ✓ favourite
X 17%
2 8%
Score3:1 Total goals: Over 2.5 BTTS:Yes Bet:1
Per AI data H2H: 0-0
Claude updated05.08.2026 23:04 UTC
1 75% ✓ favourite
X 15%
2 10%
Score2:0 Total goals: Over 2.5 BTTS:No Bet:1 + Over 2.5 (pri koeffitsiente ot 2.00)

AI consensus:1

AI 1 X 2 Score Total goals BTTS Bet
Google AI 75% 17% 8% 3:1 Over 2.5 Yes
Claude 75% 15% 10% 2:0 Over 2.5 No

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

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Match center
Start 06.08.2026 02:00 UTC
Market 1 82.2% @ 1.03 / X 8.5% @ 10.00 / 2 9.3% @ 9.10
🥊 Humans vs Machines
🤖 7 AI models Toluca 75%
📐 Math model Toluca 71%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Toluca - Seattle Sounders

Itogovyy protokol i rezultaty vstrechi Toluka - Sietl Saunders, 6 avgusta 2026. Highlights i statistika matcha, Correct score. Cup lig MLS + MX, Cup lig MLS + MX. 1-y Round. Toluka - Sietl Saunders, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matcha.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Tournament Line Movement Overview
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 2:0
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 71.4% fact: home hit / ROI 31.0% / Brier 0.124 / LogLoss 0.336
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 71.4% fact: home hit / ROI 31.0% / Brier 0.124 / LogLoss 0.336
Glicko-2: public filter Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 71.4% fact: home hit / ROI 31.0% / Brier 0.124 / LogLoss 0.336
Glicko-2: precision filter Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 71.4% fact: home hit / ROI 31.0% / Brier 0.124 / LogLoss 0.336
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Toluca 72.3% 71.4% market and model agree
Draw 17.4% 17.6% draw risk
Seattle Sounders 10.4% 11.0%
1X2: 4 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 71.4% / 17.6% / 11.0% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,560 / 1,256 Toluca / Seattle Sounders
RD 206 / 220 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,149-1,971 / 816-1,697 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 8.80 market consensus · no value · model 11.0%
X 10.00 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.03 Fonbet · no value · model 71.4%
Double chance
12 1.03 Fonbet · no value · model 82.4%
1X 1.01 Fonbet · no value · model 89.0%
X2 8.50 Fonbet · no value · model 28.6%
Handicap
2 -1 7.00 Fonbet · line only
2 +1 2.12 market consensus · line only
2 0 7.10 Fonbet · line only
1 -1 1.05 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 5.60 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 1.09 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.01 Fonbet · line only
Yes 1.68 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 1.01 99.0% 2.14 46.7%
yes 11.00 9.1% 1.68 59.5%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.11 90.1% 1.13 88.5% 1.03 97.1%
1x 1.02 98.0% 1.04 96.2% 1.01 99.0%
x2 3.25 30.8% 3.30 30.3% 8.50 11.8%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
1.66 60.2%
X 2.82 35.5%
6.70 14.9%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 1.56 64.1%
Over 1.5 2.05 48.8%
Under 1 2.33 42.9%
Under 1.5 1.71 58.5%
Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 1-0-0, avg 3.0 gls
2026-08-06 · Toluka 3:0 Sietl Saunders
Source: ruscore

Odds · 5 bookmakers

Best price: 1 1.38 (Fonbet) · X 5.2 (Liga Stavok) · 2 7.7 (Pari)
Bookmaker1X2
Pari 1.35 5 7.7
Winline 1.28 4.8 3.7
Fonbet 1.38 4.9 7.2
Betcity 1.38 5 7.2
Liga Stavok 1.29 5.2 7.4
Source: ruscore · line comparison

Match stats

68 Ball possession 32
34 Vsego udarov 4
17 Shots on target 2
13 Shots off target 1
6 Udary ot vorot 15
4 Blokirovannye udary 1
7 Shtrafnye 10
12 Corners 1
0 Offsides 0
13 Auty 22
2 Saves 14
10 Fouls 7
0 Cards total 0
0 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0
0 Second yellows 0
0 Travmy 0
5 Substitutions 5
Source: ruscore
Toluca
W L L W D
2026-08-03 Liga MX 26/27, Apertura
Toluca Toluca 3:1 Necaxa
2026-07-26 Campeon de Campeones Liga MX 2026
Toluca Toluca 1:3 Cruz Azul
2026-07-22 Liga MX 26/27, Apertura
Toluca Toluca 1:2 Pumas UNAM
2026-07-19 Liga MX 26/27, Apertura
Toluca Chivas Guadalajara 0:2 Toluca
2026-05-31 CONCACAF Champions Cup 2026
Toluca Toluca 1:1 Tigres Monterrey
2 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
1.6 Scored
1.4 Conceded
7 Points
Seattle Sounders
L L L L L
2026-08-02 MLS 2026
Portland Timbers 2:1 Seattle Sounders Seattle Sounders
2026-07-25 MLS 2026
Philadelphia Union 1:0 Seattle Sounders Seattle Sounders
2026-07-23 MLS 2026
Austin 3:1 Seattle Sounders Seattle Sounders
2026-07-17 MLS 2026
Seattle Sounders 1:5 Portland Timbers Seattle Sounders
2026-05-25 MLS 2026
Los Angeles 1:0 Seattle Sounders Seattle Sounders
0 Wins
0 Draws
5 Losses
0.6 Scored
2.4 Conceded
0 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyToluca - Seattle Sounders

Toluca
0 matches total
Seattle Sounders
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Match center
Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.
Team 1 Toluca
Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket
Team 2 Seattle Sounders
Toluca Team comparison Seattle Sounders
0 Games 0
0 Wins 0
0 Draws 0
0 Losses 0
0 Scored 0
0 Conceded 0
0 Points 0
0 Attacks 0
0 Dangerous attacks 0
0 Big chances 0
0 Shots on goal 0
0 Udary v stvor 0
0 Games 0
0 Wins 0
0 Draws 0
0 Losses 0
0 Scored 0
0 Conceded 0

Toluka Sietl Saunders 0 Games 0 Wins 0 Draws 0 Losses 0 Scored 0 Conceded 0 Points 0 Attacks 0 Dangerous attacks 0 Big chances 0 Shots on goal 0 Udary v stvor 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 Uglovye 0 Offsaydy 0 Foly 0 % vladeniya myachom 0 Warnings 0 Sendoffs 0 Goly Khesus Galyardo 1:0 3' Helio Junio 2:0 64' Federiko Vinyas 3:0 90+3' Rezultaty golosovaniya Result v osnovnoe vremya 59% 6% 35% Double chance 33% 46% 21% Materialy po prognozam «Los Angeles» — «Sietl Saunders». Karlos Vela ne perestaet radovat CHAMP('pageBlockSlider'); CHAMP({ name: 'commentsWidget', params: { appId: CHAMP.comments['appId'], xid: 'match_1330580' } }); CHAMP('tournamentTabs'); CHAMP('swipingTabs'); CHAMP('match'); CHAMP('stickyVertical'); Cup lig MLS + MX Turnirnaya Standings