Toluca take on Seattle Sounders on August 6, 2026 in the North American Leagues Cup. Group stage.
Recent form (W-D-L): Toluca 2-1-2, Seattle Sounders 0-0-5. Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)
1Toluca — 71%
Pure model vs market (1 · Toluca): model 59% · market 72%Δ −13 ppmodel estimates below the market
71%1
1 · Toluca ✓ Pick71.4%
market72%
X · draw17.6%
market17%
2 · Seattle Sounders11.0%
market10%
Model estimate: win Toluca 71.4%, draw 17.6%, win Seattle Sounders 11.0%. Model favourite — Toluca.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
🤖AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
1Toluca (odds1.68)Score 2:1confidence 60%
•Model backs Toluka: probability 60% vs 60% on the line (odds 1.68)
•legkiy pereves +0 pp nad liniey
•Expected score 2:1.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
*
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Toluca - Seattle Sounders August 6, 2026
Football math model
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite Fonbet: Toluca. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.30 / X 5.40 / 2 9.00
%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 6.7%
4 books
1 ✓ Pick72.2%
X17.4%
210.4%
Odds source: consensus of 4 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
⇅
For reference
Line movement
How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 P11.30→ 1.30
1X2 X5.40→ 5.40
1X2 P29.00→ 9.00
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
⚽
SStats data
Statistics and model
Leagues Cup
Best price
across 14 books
11.32Superbet
X6.10Betano
210.50Betano
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
AI
Model consensus
AI outcome leader: 1
Main outcome
Agreement1/1
Confidence62.0%
Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.
🧮
Model prediction • nb-bet.com
Score prediction
Toluca3:1Seattle Sounders
11.30
X5.45
28.45
Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source
*
AI overview
AI predictions
AI analysis:2/7 ready· Still preparing:DeepSeek, ChatGPT, Qwen, Kimi, GLM 5.2
Google AIupdated05.08.2026 23:01 UTC
175%✓ favourite
X17%
28%
Score3:1Total goals: Over 2.5BTTS:YesBet:1
Per AI dataH2H: 0-0
Claudeupdated05.08.2026 23:04 UTC
175%✓ favourite
X15%
210%
Score2:0Total goals: Over 2.5BTTS:NoBet:1 + Over 2.5 (pri koeffitsiente ot 2.00)
AI consensus:1
AI
1
X
2
Score
Total goals
BTTS
Bet
Google AI
75%
17%
8%
3:1
Over 2.5
Yes
Claude
75%
15%
10%
2:0
Over 2.5
No
Buy the full AI analysis
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.
Football math model.
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
OutcomeLineGlickoSignal
Toluca72.2%71.4%market and model agree
Draw17.4%17.6%draw risk
Seattle Sounders10.4%11.0%
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P271.4% / 17.6% / 11.0%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating1,560 / 1,256
Toluca / Seattle Sounders
RD206 / 220
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD1,149-1,971 / 816-1,697
strength interval
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
29.00
Fonbet · no value · model 11.0%
X5.40
Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
11.30
Fonbet · no value · model 71.4%
Double chance
121.13
Fonbet · no value · model 82.4%
1X1.05
Fonbet · no value · model 89.0%
X23.35
Fonbet · no value · model 28.6%
Handicap
2 -12.70
Fonbet · line only
2 +12.12
market consensus · line only
2 06.10
Fonbet · line only
1 -11.40
Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.51.43
Fonbet · line only
Under 2.52.60
Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No2.00
Fonbet · line only
Yes1.75
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
We use cookies to run the site and to understand how it’s used. Click “Accept all” to agree, or set your choice with “Cookie settings”. Read our cookie policy.
