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South Korea. K League 2
South Korea. K League 2
01.08.2026 10:30 UTC
01.08.2026 10:30 UTC
Not started

South Korea. K League 2

Jeonnam Dragons - Paju Citizen

Football
Jeonnam Dragons
Jeonnam Dragons
- : -
Not started
Paju Citizen
Paju Citizen
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Jeonnam Dragons — 44%

Pure model vs market (1 · Jeonnam Dragons): model 48% · market 44% Δ +4 pp model estimates above the market

1 · Jeonnam Dragons44.2%
X · draw27.0%
2 · Paju Citizen28.8%

Model estimate: win Jeonnam Dragons 44.2%, draw 27.0%, win Paju Citizen 28.8%. Model favourite — Jeonnam Dragons.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

Xdraw (odds3.36) Score 1:1 confidence 50%
  • • Model backs nichyu: probability 50% vs 30% on the line (odds 3.36)
  • • edge over the line +20 pp — value pick
  • • Expected score 1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Jeonnam Dragons - Paju Citizen August 1, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Jeonnam Dragons. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.10 / X 3.40 / 2 3.26

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 7.7%
1 44.2%
X 27.3%
2 28.5%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

K League 2
League table
Jeonnam Dragons
#1613 ptsGP 182-7-920:32
ARRAY
Paju Citizen
#1318 ptsGP 185-3-1017:23
ARRAY
Best price across 11 books
1 2.13 Dafabet
X 3.48 Pinnacle
2 3.40 Dafabet

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Jeonnam Dragons
W-D-L 1-5-4 Scored 1.00 Conceded 1.70 xG 1.22 xGA 1.39
Paju Citizen
W-D-L 1-3-6 Scored 0.50 Conceded 1.20 xG 1.08 xGA 1.48

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
Jeonnam Dragons
Rating 1383 xG 1.51 Win 47%
Paju Citizen
Rating 1399 xG 1.09 Win 27%

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

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Match center
Start 01.08.2026 10:30 UTC
Market 1 44.2% @ 2.10 / X 27.3% @ 3.40 / 2 28.5% @ 3.26
Match center

Jeonnam Dragons - Paju Citizen

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Jeonnam Dragons 43.9% 44.2% market and model agree
Draw 27.2% 27.0% draw risk
Paju Citizen 28.8% 28.8%
xG - 1.51 : 1.09

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 44.2% / 27.0% / 28.8% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,438 / 1,354 Jeonnam Dragons / Paju Frontier
RD 163 / 158 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,112-1,763 / 1,038-1,670 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.21 market consensus · no value · model 28.8%
X 3.36 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.08 market consensus · no value · model 44.2%
Double chance
12 1.26 market consensus · no value · model 73.0%
1X 1.29 market consensus · no value · model 71.2%
X2 1.63 market consensus · no value · model 55.8%
Handicap
2 0 2.35 market consensus · line only
1 0 1.53 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.78 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.91 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.10 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.65 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 2.10 47.6%
yes 1.65 60.6%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
12 1.24 80.7% 1.27 78.7%
1x 1.27 78.7% 1.30 76.9%
x2 1.61 62.1% 1.65 60.6%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
2.67 37.5%
X 2.09 47.9%
3.89 25.7%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 1.78 56.2%
Under 1 1.94 51.6%
Match center
Jeonnam Dragons
D W L D D
25.07 08:30 UTC South Korea: K-Liga 2 Standings
Jeonnam Dragons 1:1 KennamKennam
18.07 08:30 UTC South Korea: K-Liga 2 Standings
Jeonnam Dragons 1:0 AsanAsan
10.07 08:30 UTC South Korea: K-Liga 2 Standings
Jeonnam Dragons 0:5 FK SuvonFK Suvon
05.07 08:30 UTC South Korea: K-Liga 2 Standings
Jeonnam Dragons 3:3 Pusan Ay Park
07.06 08:30 UTC South Korea: K-Liga 2 Standings
Jeonnam Dragons 2:2 FK KimpkhoFK Kimpkho
1 Wins
3 Draws
1 Losses
1.4 Scored
2.2 Conceded
6 Points
Paju Citizen
L D W L L
26.07 08:30 UTC South Korea: K-Liga 2 Standings
Paju Citizen 0:1 Ansan GrinersAnsan Griners
19.07 08:30 UTC South Korea: K-Liga 2 Standings
Paju Citizen 0:0 Suvon BlyuuingsSuvon Blyuuings
11.07 08:30 UTC South Korea: K-Liga 2 Standings
Paju Citizen 2:1 KhvasonKhvason
04.07 08:30 UTC South Korea: K-Liga 2 Standings
Paju Citizen 0:1 YonginYongin
05.06 08:30 UTC South Korea: K-Liga 2 Standings
Paju Citizen 0:1 TeguTegu
1 Wins
1 Draws
3 Losses
0.4 Scored
0.8 Conceded
4 Points