AI verdict
Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Teruel. Full breakdown below.
Picks locked before kickoff results verified after public accuracy log →
31.08.2026 19:15 UTC
Spain: Primera Rfef - Group 2
Teruel face Real Madrid (B) in football, in Spain: Primera Rfef - Group 2, on 31 August 2026. PropickAI's Glicko-2 model makes Teruel the favourite, with a win probability of about 38%. The bookmaker consensus (3 books) implies about 36% for the same outcome. The model puts the chance of a draw at 29%.
There is little recent-form data for this fixture, so the read leans first on the ratings. On the Glicko scale it is 1500 for Teruel against 1204 for Real Madrid (B) - a gap of 296 points. The game is part of Spain: Primera Rfef - Group 2.
Our model and the market consensus broadly agree on this match. Model confidence in the favourite is low. That is a 2-point gap to the market. The match is close, and the model flags no clear safer edge. Key markers: an edge of 296 Glicko rating points, the model's 38% for Teruel. Read on for team stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PropickAI AI prediction. This is a probability read from our model plus the market line, not a guaranteed outcome.
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Teruel — 38%
Model estimate: win Teruel 37.7%, draw 29.3%, win Real Madrid II 33.0%. Model favourite — Teruel.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)Odds source: consensus of 3 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Form over 10 matches (SStats)Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.
Market consensus
Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.
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Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Match markets| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 2.01 49.8% |
| yes | 1.71 58.5% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.24 80.7% | 1.30 76.9% |
| 1x | 1.41 70.9% | 1.48 67.6% |
| x2 | 1.33 75.2% | 1.39 71.9% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 3.26 30.7% | |
| X | 2.13 47.0% |
| 3.09 32.4% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.31 76.3% |
| Over 1.5 | 2.79 35.8% |
| Under 0.5 | 2.99 33.4% |
| Under 1.5 | 1.45 69.0% |
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winline | 2.55 | 3.25 | 2.55 |
| Liga Stavok | 2.55 | 3.25 | 2.55 |
Sabadel
Full head-to-head history: Teruel - Real Madrid II
The Teruel - Real Madrid II breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Real Madrid II. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.
Live odds for Teruel vs Real Madrid II from multiple bookmakers are listed on this page and refresh as the market moves.
August 31, 2026.
