Who is the favourite in Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano?

By the PropickAI model, Barcelona is favoured — about 85% win probability.

What does PropickAI predict for Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Barcelona. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

What are the bookmaker odds for Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano?

Live odds for Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano from multiple bookmakers are listed on this page and refresh as the market moves.

AI verdict

AI pick Barcelona win probability ~85% confidence High

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Barcelona. Full breakdown below.

Picks locked before kickoff results verified after public accuracy log →

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Spain: Primera

31.08.2026 19:30 UTC Match prediction

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction

31.08.2026 19:30 UTC

Finished

Spain: Primera

Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano — Football prediction

Football

Stadium Kamp Nou

Referee F. Maeso

Barcelona

4 : 2

Finished

Rayo Vallecano

Barcelona take on Rayo Vallecano in football, in Spain: Primera, on 31 August 2026. The PropickAI Glicko-2 model rates Barcelona as the favourite at around 85%. Sportsbook prices (6 books) put that result at roughly 87%. The model puts the chance of a draw at 10%.

Recent form reads: Barcelona have 2 won, 0 drawn and 0 lost of their last 2; Rayo Vallecano have 1 won, 0 drawn and 0 lost of 1. Barcelona arrive on a winning run. Glicko ratings: Barcelona 1831, Rayo Vallecano 1600, a gap of 231 points.

Our model and the market consensus broadly agree on this match. Model confidence in the favourite is high. That is a 2-point gap to the market. For reliability the safer lean is a protected market on Barcelona (double chance, say) rather than the outright win alone. Key markers: an edge of 231 Glicko rating points, the model's 85% for Barcelona. Read on for team stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PropickAI AI prediction. This is a probability read from our model plus the market line, not a guaranteed outcome.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Barcelona — 85%

1 · Barcelona ✓ Pick84.8%

market 87%

X · draw10.2%

market 10%

2 · Rayo Vallecano5.0%

market 4%

Model estimate: win Barcelona 84.8%, draw 10.2%, win Rayo Vallecano 5.0%. Model favourite — Barcelona.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Barcelona - Rayo Vallecano August 31, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Glicko: Barcelona 84.8% / X 10.2% / Rayo Vallecano 5.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.8% 5 books · best price +3.6%

1 ✓ Pick 86.6%

X 9.5%

2 3.8%

Odds source: consensus of 5 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Model O/U (market-implied)

Total 4.50 5 books

Over 4.50 42.7%

Under 4.50 57.3%

Market-implied probability from the frozen pre-kickoff consensus line — reference, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 1 1.20 ↓ 1.10

1X2 X 6.90 ↑ 10.00

1X2 2 13.00 ↑ 26.00

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

La Liga

League table

Barcelona

#56 ptsGP 22-0-07:0

Rayo Vallecano

#161 ptsGP 20-1-12:3

Best price across 13 books

1 1.12 1xBet

X 11.50 BetVictor

2 26.50 Pinnacle

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)

Barcelona

W-D-L 8-0-2 Scored 2.28 Conceded 0.66 xG 2.38 xGA 1.04 Corners 5.8

Rayo Vallecano

W-D-L 4-4-2 Scored 1.38 Conceded 1.22 xG 1.20 xGA 1.19 Corners 4.7

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Injuries and absences

F. de Jong — Knee Injury D. Livakovic — Inactive Luiz Felipe — Hamstring Injury A. Batalla — Injury M. Kumbulla — Muscle Injury I. Palazon — Injury Gavi — Knee Injury Marc Casadó — Coach's decision R. Bardghji — Knee Injury Héctor Fort — Coach's decision

Source: sstats_content

Model form (Glicko)

Barcelona

Rating 1802 xG 2.69 Win 81%

Rayo Vallecano

Rating 1488 xG 0.60 Win 6%

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result

Barcelona

87%

1.14

Draw

11.00

Rayo Vallecano

48.00

Total

Over 4.5

49%

2.30

Under 4.5

51%

4.70

Both teams to score

Yes

28%

23.00

72%

1.80

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Barcelona 3 : 1 Rayo Vallecano

11.12

X11.40

228.00

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Participant opinions

1064 predictions Choose an outcome

1 98% 1047

X 1% 11

2 0% 6

Match center

Stadium Kamp Nou

Referee F. Maeso

Start 31.08.2026 19:30 UTC

Weather +26°C clear

Broadcasts Match TV, MATCh! Football 2, MEGOGO

🥊 Humans vs Machines

👥 Community Barcelona 98%

📐 Math model Barcelona 85%

💹 Market Barcelona 87%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Barcelona - Rayo Vallecano

Barcelona: win 1.11 Barcelona: draw 10.00 Rayo Vallecano win: 17.00 Obschiy Total goals Over 3.5: 1.73 Obschiy Total goals Under 3.5: 2.10 Individualnyy Total goals Barcelona Over 3.5: 2.25 Individualnyy Total goals Barcelona Under 3.5: 1.57 Individualnyy Total goals…

Lineups 11/10 probable starting lineup

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 8 head-to-head matches

Market 3 model / bookmakers

Post-match / SStats

Score 4:2

Events 0

Statistics 0

Lineups 0

PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating

Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 84.8% fact: home hit / ROI 14.0% / Brier 0.036 / LogLoss 0.165

Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 84.8% fact: home hit / ROI 14.0% / Brier 0.036 / LogLoss 0.165

Glicko-2: public filter Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 84.8% fact: home hit / ROI 14.0% / Brier 0.036 / LogLoss 0.165

Glicko-2: precision filter Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 84.8% fact: home hit / ROI 14.0% / Brier 0.036 / LogLoss 0.165

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Barcelona 86.7% 84.8% market and model agree

Draw 9.5% 10.2% draw risk

Rayo Vallecano 3.8% 5.0%

xG - 2.58 : 0.61

1X2: 6 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 84.8% / 10.2% / 5.0% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,831 / 1,600 Barcelona / Rayo Vallecano

RD 252 / 291 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 1,326-2,335 / 1,017-2,182 strength interval

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

X 9.90 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.05 Fonbet · no value · model 84.8%

Double chance

12 1.03 Fonbet · no value · model 89.8%

1X 1.08 Fonbet · weak value +2.6% · model 95.0%

X2 8.50 Fonbet · no value · model 15.2%

Handicap

2 -1 6.20 Fonbet · line only

2 0 6.20 Fonbet · line only

1 -1 1.07 Fonbet · line only

1 0 1.07 Fonbet · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.06 Fonbet · line only

Under 2.5 6.60 Fonbet · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.70 Fonbet · line only

Yes 2.15 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome	Fonbet	Kambi BetMGM	Kambi Unibet	Leon
no	1.70 58.8%	1.80 55.6%	1.80 55.6%	1.79 55.9%
yes	2.15 46.5%	23.00 4.4%	23.00 4.4%	1.92 52.1%

Double chance

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity	Fonbet	Kambi BetMGM	Kambi Unibet
12	1.04 96.2%	1.06 94.3%	1.03 97.1%	1.04 96.2%	1.04 96.2%
1x	—	1.02 98.0%	1.08 92.6%	1.03 97.1%	1.03 97.1%
x2	7.13 14.0%	6.80 14.7%	8.50 11.8%	7.00 14.3%	7.00 14.3%

First Half Winner

Outcome	Leon
	1.36 73.5%
X	3.75 26.7%
	12.90 7.8%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome	Leon
Over 1.5	1.70 58.8%
Under 1.5	2.03 49.3%

Match center

4-2-3-1 4-3-3

1 Zhoan Garsiya

5 Pao Kubarsi

12 Khavi Espart

15 Andreas Kristensen

23 Zhyul Kunde

8 Pedri

10 Lamin Yamal

17 Entoni Gordon

20 Dani Olmo

22 Mark Bernal

11 Rafinya

1 Deniel Kardenas

6 Pate Siss

20 Ivan Balliu 24 Floryan Lezhen

33 Dzhoshua Vertrud

8 Unai Lopes

23 Oskar Valentin

10 Serkhio Kamelo

18 Alvaro Garsiya

19 Khorkhe de Frutos

Barcelona

Formation 4-2-3-1

Probable starting lineup

1 ZG Zhoan Garsiya

Zhoan Garsiya

5 PK Pao Kubarsi

Pao Kubarsi

12 KE Khavi Espart

15 AK Andreas Kristensen

Andreas Kristensen

23 ZK Zhyul Kunde

Zhyul Kunde

8 P Pedri

Pedri

10 LY Lamin Yamal

Lamin Yamal

17 EG Entoni Gordon

Entoni Gordon

20 DO Dani Olmo

Dani Olmo

22 MB Mark Bernal

Mark Bernal

11 R Rafinya

Rafinya

Head coach Khans-Diter Flik

Rayo Vallecano

Formation 4-3-3

Probable starting lineup

1 DK Deniel Kardenas

Deniel Kardenas

6 PS Pate Siss

Pate Siss

20 IB Ivan Balliu

Ivan Balliu

24 FL Floryan Lezhen

Floryan Lezhen

33 DV Dzhoshua Vertrud

Dzhoshua Vertrud

8 UL Unai Lopes

Unai Lopes

23 OV Oskar Valentin

Oskar Valentin

10 SK Serkhio Kamelo

Serkhio Kamelo

18 AG Alvaro Garsiya

Alvaro Garsiya

19 KD Khorkhe de Frutos

Khorkhe de Frutos

Head coach Benyat san Khose

Barcelona

No home-team absences found in the prematch data.

Rayo Vallecano

No away-team absences found in the prematch data.

Formations 4-2-3-1 / 4-3-3

SStats Market - Glicko - Form - H2H

Match center

10 Matches 10

25 Goals 12

2.5 Per match 1.2

7 Wins 3

0 Draws 2

3 Losses 5

Form & head-to-head

H2H 4-3-1, avg 1.88 gls

2026-03-22 · Barselona 1:0 Rayo Valekano

2025-08-31 · Barselona 1:1 Rayo Valekano

2025-02-17 · Barselona 1:0 Rayo Valekano

2024-08-27 · Barselona 2:1 Rayo Valekano

2024-05-19 · Barselona 3:0 Rayo Valekano

Source: ruscore

Odds · 5 bookmakers

Best price: 1 1.23 (Pari) · X 7 (Betcity) · 2 13 (Betcity)

Bookmaker	1	X	2
Pari	1.23	6.6	12
Winline	1.23	6.2	10
Fonbet	1.23	6.6	12
Betcity	1.21	7	13
Liga Stavok	1.22	6.6	11

Source: ruscore · line comparison

Barcelona

W W W W L

2026-08-27 LaLiga 26/27

Barcelona Barcelona 2:0 Athletic Bilbao

2026-08-23 LaLiga 26/27

Barcelona Elche 0:5 Barcelona

2026-08-19 General

Barcelona Barcelona 2:1 Al Ahly Cairo

2026-08-16 General

Barcelona Basel 2:5 Barcelona

2026-08-08 General

Barcelona Udinese 1:0 Barcelona

4 Wins

0 Draws

1 Losses

2.8 Scored

0.8 Conceded

12 Points

Rayo Vallecano

D L L W L

2026-08-20 LaLiga 26/27

Rayo Vallecano 1:1 Alaves Rayo Vallecano

2026-08-15 LaLiga 26/27

Sevilla 2:1 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano

2026-08-08 General

Ipswich Town 3:0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano

2026-08-01 General

Charleroi 2:3 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano

2026-07-26 General

Feyenoord 2:1 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano

1 Wins

1 Draws

3 Losses

1.2 Scored

2.0 Conceded

4 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head history: Barcelona - Rayo Vallecano

Barcelona

8 matches total

Rayo Vallecano

Barcelona: 4 (50%)

Draws:3 (37.5%)

Rayo Vallecano: 1 (12.5%)

Biggest win Barcelona 3:0 (19.05.24, 12:00) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 3 goals (1:2, 27.08.24, 14:30) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw 1:1 (31.08.25, 14:30) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

10 Goals scored 5

5 Goals conceded 10

Match history

Event

Barcelona

1:0

Rayo Vallecano

Event

Barcelona

1:1

Rayo Vallecano

Event

Barcelona

1:0

Rayo Vallecano

Event

Barcelona

1:2

Rayo Vallecano

Event

Barcelona

3:0

Rayo Vallecano

Event

Barcelona

1:1

Rayo Vallecano

Event

Barcelona

2:1

Rayo Vallecano

Event

Barcelona

0:0

Rayo Vallecano

Match center

Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.

Team 1 Barcelona

Data 0 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket

Team 2 Rayo Vallecano

Matches in history 49

Biggest draw 3:3

Highest-scoring match 9:0

Primera 46 / 28 / 11 / 7 / 124 / 39

Cup Spain 3 / 3 / 0 / 0 / 8 / 2

Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano — Football prediction

AI match prediction Barcelona - Rayo Vallecano August 31, 2026

Fair probability (no margin)

Model O/U (market-implied)

Line movement

Statistics and model

Forecast by market

Score prediction

Unlock the full AI analysis

Barcelona - Rayo Vallecano

Match markets

Both teams to score

Double chance

First Half Winner

Goals Over/Under First Half

Form & head-to-head

Odds · 5 bookmakers

Overall statistics

Match history

More predictions

Frequently asked questions