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Spain: Segunda - Povyshenie - Playoff

09.06.2026 17:00 UTC Match prediction

09.06.2026 17:00 UTC

Finished

Spain: Segunda - Povyshenie - Playoff

Almeriya - Kastelon

Football

Almeriya

3 : 2

Finished

Kastelon

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Almeriya - Kastelon June 9, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Almeriya.

Line favourite market consensus: Almeriya. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.31 / X 3.45 / 2 2.83
1X2 market: Almeriya 40.2% / X 27.0% / Kastelon 32.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 7.6%

1 40.2%

X 26.9%

2 32.8%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Segunda División

League table

Almeriya

#374 ptsGP 4222-8-1281:63

WDWLL

Kastelon

#672 ptsGP 4220-12-1070:51

LDWWD

Best price across 12 books

1 2.41 Pinnacle

X 3.60 Marathonbet

2 2.99 Pinnacle

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)

Almeriya

W-D-L 5-2-3 Scored 1.80 Conceded 1.80 xG 1.74 xGA 1.27 Corners 3.6

1 -1.29 X -3.00 2 +0.03 1 (DNB) -1.30

Kastelon

W-D-L 5-4-1 Scored 1.80 Conceded 1.30 xG 1.98 xGA 1.06 Corners 7.2

1 -0.95 X +8.15 2 -4.50 1 (DNB) +0.80

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)

Almeriya

Rating 1573 xG 1.38 Win 38%

Kastelon

Rating 1579 xG 1.36 Win 37%

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

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Match center

Start 09.06.2026 17:00 UTC

Match center

Almeriya - Kastelon

Form 1/1 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 5.70 Fonbet · line only

X 1.45 Fonbet · line only

1 5.20 Fonbet · line only

Double chance

12 2.75 Fonbet · line only

1X 1.14 Fonbet · line only

X2 1.16 Fonbet · line only

Handicap

2 -1 1.65 Fonbet · line only

2 +1 1.95 Fonbet · line only

2 0 1.98 Fonbet · line only

1 -1 2.25 Fonbet · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.63 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 2.21 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 2.20 Fonbet · line only

Yes 1.67 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor
	2.24 44.6%	2.37 42.2%	2.35 42.6%	2.37 42.2%	2.30 43.5%	2.30 43.5%
X	3.45 29.0%	3.64 27.5%	3.60 27.8%	3.40 29.4%	3.30 30.3%	3.30 30.3%
	3.00 33.3%	2.90 34.5%	2.75 36.4%	2.80 35.7%	2.75 36.4%	2.75 36.4%

Both teams to score

Outcome	Fonbet
no	2.20 45.5%
yes	1.67 59.9%

Double chance

Outcome	Fonbet
12	2.75 36.4%
1x	1.14 87.7%
x2	1.16 86.2%

Handicap

Outcome	Fonbet
	1.85 54.1%
	1.25 80.0%
	2.25 44.4%
	3.55 28.2%
	6.90 14.5%
	10.00 10.0%
	1.82 55.0%
	1.95 51.3%
	3.85 26.0%
	1.65 60.6%
	1.30 76.9%
	1.06 94.3%
	1.06 94.3%
	1.98 50.5%

Match center

Almeriya

06.06 17:00 UTC Spain: Segunda - Povyshenie - Playoff

Almeriya 1:1 Kastelon

0 Wins

1 Draws

0 Losses

1.0 Scored

1.0 Conceded

1 Points

Kastelon

06.06 17:00 UTC Spain: Segunda - Povyshenie - Playoff

Kastelon 1:1 Almeriya

0 Wins

1 Draws

0 Losses

1.0 Scored

1.0 Conceded

1 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyAlmeriya - Kastelon

Almeriya

1 matches total

Kastelon

Almeriya: 0 (0%)

Draws:1 (100%)

Kastelon: 0 (0%)

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 2 goals (1:1, 06.06 17:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw 1:1 (06.06 17:00 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 1

1 Goals conceded 1

Match history

06.06 17:00 UTC Spain: Segunda - Povyshenie - Playoff

Almeriya

1:1

Kastelon