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Spain: Segunda - Povyshenie - Playoff
Spain: Segunda - Povyshenie - Playoff
06.06.2026 17:00 UTC Match prediction
06.06.2026 17:00 UTC
Finished

Spain: Segunda - Povyshenie - Playoff

Kastelon - Almeriya

Football
Kastelon
Kastelon
1 : 1
Finished
Almeriya
Almeriya

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Kastelon - Almeriya June 6, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Kastelon.

Line favourite market consensus: Kastelon. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.80 / X 3.80 / 2 4.04
  • 1X2 market: Kastelon 52.1% / X 24.7% / Almeriya 23.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.6%
1 52.1%
X 24.7%
2 23.2%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Segunda División
League table
Kastelon
#672 ptsGP 4220-12-1070:51
DWWDD
Almeriya
#374 ptsGP 4222-8-1281:63
DWLLD
Best price across 13 books
1 1.88 Betano
X 3.90 Marathonbet
2 4.25 Pinnacle

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Kastelon
W-D-L 6-3-1 Scored 1.90 Conceded 1.20 xG 1.99 xGA 1.08 Corners 7.2
1 +1.00 X +4.35 2 -4.50 1 (DNB) +1.30
Almeriya
W-D-L 5-1-4 Scored 1.70 Conceded 1.90 xG 1.76 xGA 1.27 Corners 4.1
1 -1.29 X -6.80 2 +1.98 1 (DNB) -2.30

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
Kastelon
Rating 1580 xG 1.66 Win 48%
Almeriya
Rating 1572 xG 1.20 Win 28%

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

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Match center
Start 06.06.2026 17:00 UTC
Match center

Kastelon - Almeriya

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

2/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 4.04 market consensus · line only
X 1.19 Fonbet · line only
1 5.20 Fonbet · line only
Double chance
12 4.40 Fonbet · line only
1X 1.01 Fonbet · line only
X2 1.15 Fonbet · line only
Handicap
2 -1 1.03 Fonbet · line only
2 0 4.80 Fonbet · line only
1 -1 9.00 Fonbet · line only
1 +1 1.02 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.61 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.30 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.35 Fonbet · line only
Yes 3.00 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
1.81 55.3% 1.81 55.3% 1.80 55.6% 1.83 54.6% 1.75 57.1% 1.80 55.6%
X 3.75 26.7% 3.90 25.6% 3.90 25.6% 4.10 24.4% 3.75 26.7% 3.70 27.0%
4.00 25.0% 4.28 23.4% 4.00 25.0% 4.20 23.8% 3.75 26.7% 3.75 26.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet
no 1.35 74.1%
yes 3.00 33.3%

Double chance

Outcome Fonbet
12 4.40 22.7%
1x 1.01 99.0%
x2 1.15 87.0%

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
1.02 98.0%
1.01 99.0%
9.00 11.1%
10.50 9.5%
6.60 15.2%
8.00 12.5%
11.50 8.7%
1.13 88.5%
10.50 9.5%
11.00 9.1%
1.03 97.1%
1.01 99.0%
1.06 94.3%
1.04 96.2%
1.01 99.0%
4.80 20.8%
Match center

Full head-to-head historyKastelon - Almeriya

Kastelon
0 matches total
Almeriya
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history