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Super League
Super League Switzerland
04.04.2026 18:30 UTC Match prediction
04.04.2026 18:30 UTC
Finished

Super League

Switzerland

FC Basel 1893 - BSC Young Boys

Switzerland Football
Stadium St. Jakob-Park
Capacity 38 512
FC Basel 1893
FC Basel 1893
3 : 3
Finished
BSC Young Boys
BSC Young Boys
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 BSC Young Boys — 39%

1 · FC Basel 189336.1%
X · draw25.2%
2 · BSC Young Boys38.7%

Model estimate: win FC Basel 1893 36.1%, draw 25.2%, win BSC Young Boys 38.7%. Model favourite — BSC Young Boys.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction FC Basel 1893 - BSC Young Boys April 4, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like FC Basel 1893.

Line favourite market consensus: FC Basel 1893. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.34 / X 3.78 / 2 2.58
  • 1X2 market: FC Basel 1893 39.6% / X 24.5% / BSC Young Boys 35.9%
  • Glicko: FC Basel 1893 36.1% / X 25.2% / BSC Young Boys 38.7%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 22.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 7.9%
1 39.6%
X 24.5%
2 35.9%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 7.4%
Over 2.5 67.0%
Under 2.5 33.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 2/4
Confidence 38.7%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:1

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center
Start 04.04.2026 18:30 UTC
Stadium St. Jakob-Park (Basel)
Capacity 38,512

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model BSC Young Boys 39%
💹 Market FC Basel 1893 3958%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

FC Basel 1893 - BSC Young Boys

FC Basel 1893: Win 2.45 FC Basel 1893: Draw 3.70 BSC Young Boys Win: 2.70 Obschiy total golov bolshe 3.5: 2.10 Obschiy total golov menshe 3.5: 1.67 Individualnyy total golov FC Basel 1893 bolshe 1.5: 1.83 Individualnyy total golov FC Basel 1893 menshe 1.5: 1.83 Individualn…

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 3:3
Events 20
Statistics 24
Lineups 31
min Event Player Team
22' 22' Yellow Card BSC Young Boys
27' 27' Normal Goal BSC Young Boys
29' 29' Yellow Card BSC Young Boys
36' 36' Own Goal | S. Lauper Viktor Gyökeres FC Basel 1893
41' 41' Normal Goal | X. Shaqiri I. Balliu FC Basel 1893
62' 62' Yellow Card | J. Monteiro BSC Young Boys
63' 63' Substitution 2 | C. Fassnacht | assist/sub out: A. Virginius H. Maguire BSC Young Boys
64' 64' Own Goal | F. Daniliuc BSC Young Boys
Metric FC Basel 1893 BSC Young Boys SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.24 0.97 final
Zablokirovannye udary 1 5 final
Shots off target 2 4 final
Shots on target 5 3 final
Udary vsego 8 12 final
Fouls soversheno 6 16 final
Zheltye kartochki 1 3 final
Offsides 0 1 final
FC Basel 1893 #1 M. Hitz, #3 N. Vouilloz, #5 Metinho, #10 X. Shaqiri, #21 I. Salah, #22 L. Leroy, #23 A. Ajeti, #31 D. Schmid
BSC Young Boys #1 M. Keller, #6 E. Fernandes, #17 S. Janko, #23 L. Benito, #30 S. Lauper, #37 A. Gigović, #77 Joël Monteiro, #99 S. Essende
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Ajeti FC Basel 1893 football.player.assists 0
A. Ajeti FC Basel 1893 Dribling popytki 2
A. Ajeti FC Basel 1893 Dribling uspeshno 5
A. Ajeti FC Basel 1893 Edinoborstva vyigrano 9
A. Ajeti FC Basel 1893 Fouls na igroke 1
A. Ajeti FC Basel 1893 Seyvy 0
A. Ajeti FC Basel 1893 football.player.minutes_played 74
A. Ajeti FC Basel 1893 Klyuchevye pasy 11
A. Ajeti FC Basel 1893 Reyting (staryy) 6
A. Ajeti FC Basel 1893 Shots on target 1
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
FC Basel 1893 40.4% 36.1% market favourite
Draw 25.0% 25.2% draw risk
BSC Young Boys 34.6% 38.7% Glicko contrarian
xG - 1.38 : 1.43
Total 2.5 Over 22.2% - Under 77.8%
Model check - - Difference 0.04
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.04

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 36.1% / 25.2% / 38.7% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,571 / 1,548 FC Basel 1893 / BSC Young Boys
RD 73 / 72 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.58 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 38.7%
X 3.78 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.34 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 36.1%
Double chance
X2 1.56 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 63.9%
12 1.23 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 74.8%
1X 1.46 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 61.4%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.57 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.25 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.54 market consensus · line only
2 +1 3.93 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.39 market consensus · no value · model 22.2%
Under 2.5 2.82 market consensus · weak value +119.5% · model 77.8%
Both teams to score
No 2.96 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.35 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair
2.40 41.7% 2.32 43.1% 2.40 41.7% 2.35 42.6% 2.42 41.3% 2.30 43.5%
X 3.85 26.0% 3.95 25.3% 3.74 26.7% 3.80 26.3% 3.75 26.7% 4.00 25.0%
2.50 40.0% 2.52 39.7% 2.58 38.8% 2.50 40.0% 2.57 38.9% 2.63 38.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Marathonbet Unibet William Hill
no 2.90 34.5% 3.05 32.8% 3.04 32.9% 3.00 33.3% 2.90 34.5% 2.98 33.6% 2.90 34.5% 2.90 34.5%
yes 1.35 74.1% 1.37 73.0% 1.33 75.2% 1.36 73.5% 1.36 73.5% 1.33 75.2% 1.35 74.1% 1.35 74.1%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet
draw_away 1.53 65.4% 1.53 65.4% 1.57 63.7% 1.57 63.7% 1.57 63.7% 1.53 65.4%
home_away 1.20 83.3% 1.25 80.0% 1.25 80.0% 1.26 79.4% 1.22 82.0% 1.25 80.0%
home_draw 1.50 66.7% 1.47 68.0% 1.50 66.7% 1.53 65.4% 1.44 69.4% 1.47 68.0%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 — — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0 — — 1.03 97.1%
Over 1.5 1.12 89.3% — 1.06 94.3%
Over 1.75 — — 1.08 92.6%
Over 2.5 1.40 71.4% — —
Over 3.25 — 1.86 53.8% —
Over 3.5 2.00 50.0% 2.06 48.5% —
Over 4.5 3.25 30.8% — —
Over 5.5 5.75 17.4% — —
Under 1.5 5.75 17.4% — —
Under 2.5 2.90 34.5% — —
Under 3.25 — 2.03 49.3% —
Under 3.5 1.80 55.6% 1.83 54.6% —
Under 4.5 1.33 75.2% — —
Under 5.5 1.13 88.5% — —
Match center
FC Basel 1893
Founded 1893
BSC Young Boys
Founded 1898
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.