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Sweden. League 1
Sweden. League 1
02.08.2026 17:05 UTC
02.08.2026 17:05 UTC
Not started

Sweden. League 1

Orebro SK - IFK Varnamo

Football
Orebro SK
Orebro SK
- : -
Not started
IFK Varnamo
IFK Varnamo

Orebro SK go head-to-head with IFK Varnamo on August 2, 2026 in the Sweden. League 1.

Recent form (W-D-L): Orebro SK 0-2-2, IFK Varnamo 0-1-3. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Orebro SK — 58%

Pure model vs market (1 · Orebro SK): model 54% · market 44% Δ +10 pp model estimates above the market

1 · Orebro SK ✓ Pick57.9%
X · draw20.0%
2 · IFK Varnamo22.1%

Model estimate: win Orebro SK 57.9%, draw 20.0%, win IFK Varnamo 22.1%. Model favourite — Orebro SK.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Orebro SK (odds2.11) Score 2:1 confidence 58%
  • • Model backs Erebru: probability 58% vs 47% on the line (odds 2.11)
  • • edge over the line +11 pp — value pick
  • • Expected score 2:1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Orebro SK - IFK Varnamo August 2, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Orebro SK. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.11 / X 3.48 / 2 3.15

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 7.9%
1 ✓ Pick 43.9%
X 26.6%
2 29.4%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Superettan
League table
Orebro SK
#1415 ptsGP 163-6-713:22
IFK Varnamo
#1511 ptsGP 163-2-1117:34
Best price across 13 books
1 2.23 Unibet
X 3.60 Betfair
2 3.28 Pinnacle

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Orebro SK
W-D-L 1-3-6 Scored 0.90 Conceded 1.70 xG 1.22 xGA 1.52 Corners 4.0
IFK Varnamo
W-D-L 0-2-8 Scored 0.60 Conceded 2.10 xG 1.45 xGA 1.45 Corners 5.3

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
Orebro SK
Rating 1411 xG 1.47 Win 43%
IFK Varnamo
Rating 1349 xG 1.21 Win 31%

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

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Match center
Start 02.08.2026 17:05 UTC
Market 1 43.9% @ 2.11 / X 26.6% @ 3.48 / 2 29.4% @ 3.15
Match center

Orebro SK - IFK Varnamo

Form 4/4 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Orebro SK 43.9% 57.9% market and model agree
Draw 26.6% 20.0% draw risk
IFK Varnamo 29.4% 22.1%
xG - 1.46 : 1.16

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 57.9% / 20.0% / 22.1% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,384 / 1,172 Orebro / Varnamo
RD 200 / 202 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 983-1,785 / 768-1,575 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.15 market consensus · no value · model 22.1%
X 3.48 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.11 market consensus · value +22.2% · model 57.9%
Handicap
2 +0.5 1.68 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 2.07 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.76 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.96 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.11 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.65 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 2.11 47.4%
yes 1.65 60.6%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
2.61 38.3%
X 2.29 43.7%
3.57 28.0%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1.5 2.63 38.0%
Under 1.5 1.49 67.1%

Handicap

Outcome Leon
2.07 48.3%
1.68 59.5%
Match center
Orebro SK
D L D L
27.07 15:00 UTC Sweden: First League Standings
Orebro SK 0:0 OddevoldOddevold
19.07 11:00 UTC Sweden: First League Standings
Orebro SK 0:2 Yunayted NordikYunayted Nordik
14.06 11:00 UTC Sweden: First League Standings
Orebro SK 1:1 FalkenbergFalkenberg
31.05 13:00 UTC Sweden: First League Standings
Orebro SK 2:3 EstersundEstersund
0 Wins
2 Draws
2 Losses
0.8 Scored
1.5 Conceded
2 Points
IFK Varnamo
D L L L
25.07 11:00 UTC Sweden: First League Standings
IFK Varnamo 0:0 Brage
19.07 11:00 UTC Sweden: First League Standings
IFK Varnamo 2:3 YungshileYungshile
09.06 15:00 UTC Sweden: First League Standings
IFK Varnamo 0:3 EsterEster
31.05 11:00 UTC Sweden: First League Standings
IFK Varnamo 0:2 Yunayted NordikYunayted Nordik
0 Wins
1 Draws
3 Losses
0.5 Scored
2.0 Conceded
1 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyOrebro SK - IFK Varnamo

Orebro SK
0 matches total
IFK Varnamo
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history