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Champions League UEFA. Third qualifying round. First leg

01.08.2026 14:30 UTC

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Champions League UEFA. Third qualifying round. First leg

AIK Stockholm - Orgryte IS

Football

AIK Stockholm

- : -

Not started

Orgryte IS

🎯 PropickAI prediction

High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 AIK Stockholm — 64%

Pure model vs market (1 · AIK Stockholm): model 52% · market 65% Δ −13 pp model estimates below the market

1 · AIK Stockholm ✓ Pick64.1%

market65%

X · draw19.0%

market19%

2 · Orgryte IS16.8%

market16%

Model estimate: win AIK Stockholm 64.1%, draw 19.0%, win Orgryte IS 16.8%. Model favourite — AIK Stockholm.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1AIK Stockholm (odds1.43) Score 2:1 confidence 50%

• Model backs AIK: probability 50% vs 70% on the line (odds 1.43)
• no edge over the line (-20 pp) — informational only
• Expected score 2:1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction AIK Stockholm - Orgryte IS August 1, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: AIK Stockholm. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.45 / X 5.00 / 2 5.70

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.5%

1 ✓ Pick 64.8%

X 18.8%

2 16.5%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Allsvenskan

League table

AIK Stockholm

#622 ptsGP 146-4-418:18

ARRAY

Orgryte IS

#1510 ptsGP 142-4-814:33

ARRAY

Best price across 13 books

1 1.50 Betano

X 4.93 Pinnacle

2 6.80 10Bet

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)

AIK Stockholm

W-D-L 4-3-3 Scored 1.20 Conceded 1.29 xG 1.28 xGA 1.57 Corners 5.9

Orgryte IS

W-D-L 1-3-6 Scored 0.90 Conceded 2.20 xG 1.04 xGA 2.02 Corners 4.3

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)

AIK Stockholm

Rating 1591 xG 1.92 Win 64%

Orgryte IS

Rating 1400 xG 0.78 Win 15%

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

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Match center

Start 01.08.2026 14:30 UTC

Market 1 64.8% @ 1.45 / X 18.8% @ 5.00 / 2 16.5% @ 5.70

Match center

AIK Stockholm - Orgryte IS

Form 3/4 recent games

H2H 0 head-to-head matches

Market 3 model / bookmakers

SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.

Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.

Transfermarkt squad

Present in data

Market Form Match Participants Line

More needed

H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore

Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore

Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries

Movement Line history

Overview championat, soccer365

Table championat, Flashscore

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

AIK Stockholm 64.9% 64.1% market and model agree

Draw 18.8% 19.0% draw risk

Orgryte IS 16.3% 16.8%

xG - 1.92 : 0.78

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 64.1% / 19.0% / 16.8% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,629 / 1,466 AIK / Orgryte

RD 210 / 199 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 1,209-2,050 / 1,068-1,864 strength interval

HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 5.67 market consensus · no value · model 16.8%

X 4.88 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.43 market consensus · no value · model 64.1%

Double chance

12 1.13 market consensus · no value · model 81.0%

1X 1.10 market consensus · no value · model 83.2%

X2 2.61 market consensus · no value · model 35.9%

Handicap

2 +1 2.07 market consensus · line only

1 -1 1.69 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 2.03 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.71 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome	Leon
no	2.03 49.3%
yes	1.71 58.5%

Double chance

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity
12	1.11 90.1%	1.15 87.0%
1x	1.08 92.6%	1.12 89.3%
x2	2.57 38.9%	2.65 37.7%

First Half Winner

Outcome	Leon
	1.87 53.5%
X	2.55 39.2%
	5.80 17.2%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome	Leon
Over 1.5	2.16 46.3%
Under 1.5	1.57 63.7%

Match center

AIK Stockholm

D W W

27.07 15:00 UTC Sweden: Premier League Standings

AIK Stockholm 0:0 Khekken

18.07 11:00 UTC Sweden: Premier League Standings

AIK Stockholm 2:0 GAIS

05.07 10:00 UTC Sweden: Premier League Standings

AIK Stockholm 2:1 Geteborg

2 Wins

1 Draws

0 Losses

1.3 Scored

0.3 Conceded

7 Points

Orgryte IS

L D W L

24.07 15:00 UTC Sweden: Premier League Standings

Orgryte IS 0:2 Vesteros

20.07 15:00 UTC Sweden: Premier League Standings

Orgryte IS 0:0 Yurgorden

11.07 13:30 UTC Sweden: Premier League Standings

Orgryte IS 4:3 Khekken

05.07 10:00 UTC Sweden: Premier League Standings

Orgryte IS 0:1 Kalmar

1 Wins

1 Draws

2 Losses

1.0 Scored

1.5 Conceded

4 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyAIK Stockholm - Orgryte IS

AIK Stockholm

0 matches total

Orgryte IS

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

AIK Stockholm - Orgryte IS

AI match prediction AIK Stockholm - Orgryte IS August 1, 2026

Fair probability (no margin)

Statistics and model

Buy the full AI analysis

AIK Stockholm - Orgryte IS

What data is collected and where it is shown

Match markets

Both teams to score

Double chance

First Half Winner

Goals Over/Under First Half

Match history