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Champions League UEFA. Third qualifying round. First leg
Champions League UEFA. Third qualifying round. First leg
01.08.2026 12:00 UTC
01.08.2026 12:00 UTC
Not started

Champions League UEFA. Third qualifying round. First leg

IF Brommapojkarna - Malmo FF

Football
I
IF Brommapojkarna
- : -
Not started
M
Malmo FF
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Malmo FF — 44%

Pure model vs market (2 · Malmo FF): model 40% · market 45% Δ −5 pp model estimates below the market

1 · IF Brommapojkarna29.9%
X · draw25.9%
2 · Malmo FF44.2%

Model estimate: win IF Brommapojkarna 29.9%, draw 25.9%, win Malmo FF 44.2%. Model favourite — Malmo FF.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

Xdraw (odds3.47) Score 1:1 confidence 50%
  • • Model backs nichyu: probability 50% vs 29% on the line (odds 3.47)
  • • edge over the line +21 pp — value pick
  • • Expected score 1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction IF Brommapojkarna - Malmo FF August 1, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Malmo FF. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.20 / X 3.60 / 2 2.10

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.6%
1 29.3%
X 26.0%
2 44.7%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Allsvenskan
League table
IF Brommapojkarna
#1217 ptsGP 144-5-519:22
ARRAY
Malmo FF
#820 ptsGP 146-2-628:24
ARRAY
Best price across 13 books
1 3.50 Unibet
X 3.75 10Bet
2 2.22 Betano

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
IF Brommapojkarna
W-D-L 3-3-4 Scored 1.30 Conceded 1.40 xG 1.18 xGA 1.63 Corners 5.1
Malmo FF
W-D-L 4-1-5 Scored 2.10 Conceded 1.89 xG 1.55 xGA 1.34 Corners 4.6

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
IF Brommapojkarna
Rating 1514 xG 1.04 Win 25%
Malmo FF
Rating 1565 xG 1.56 Win 50%

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

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Match center
Start 01.08.2026 12:00 UTC
Market 1 29.3% @ 3.20 / X 26.0% @ 3.60 / 2 44.7% @ 2.10
Match center

IF Brommapojkarna - Malmo FF

Form 5/4 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
IF Brommapojkarna 29.4% 29.9%
Draw 26.1% 25.9% draw risk
Malmo FF 44.5% 44.2% market and model agree
xG - 1.04 : 1.56

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 29.9% / 25.9% / 44.2% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,453 / 1,580 Brommapojkarna / Malmo FF
RD 185 / 191 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,084-1,823 / 1,197-1,962 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.08 market consensus · no value · model 44.2%
X 3.53 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 3.15 market consensus · no value · model 29.9%
Double chance
12 1.24 market consensus · no value · model 74.1%
1X 1.66 market consensus · no value · model 55.8%
X2 1.30 market consensus · no value · model 70.1%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.07 market consensus · line only
2 0 1.55 market consensus · line only
1 +0.5 1.68 market consensus · line only
1 0 2.32 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.59 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.22 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.36 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.52 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 2.36 42.4%
yes 1.52 65.8%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
12 1.22 82.0% 1.26 79.4%
1x 1.63 61.4% 1.69 59.2%
x2 1.28 78.1% 1.32 75.8%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
3.48 28.7%
X 2.38 42.0%
2.55 39.2%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1.5 2.21 45.3%
Under 1.5 1.54 64.9%
Match center
IF Brommapojkarna
D L L D D
26.07 10:00 UTC Sweden: Premier League Standings
IF Brommapojkarna 1:1 KhammarbyuKhammarbyu
17.07 15:00 UTC Sweden: Premier League Standings
IF Brommapojkarna 1:2 GeteborgGeteborg
12.07 12:30 UTC Sweden: Premier League Standings
IF Brommapojkarna 1:2 SiriusSirius
05.07 15:00 UTC Sweden: Premier League Standings
IF Brommapojkarna 1:1 GAIS
31.05 10:00 UTC Sweden: Premier League Standings
IF Brommapojkarna 2:2 DegerforsDegerfors
0 Wins
3 Draws
2 Losses
1.2 Scored
1.6 Conceded
3 Points
Malmo FF
L D W W
26.07 12:30 UTC Sweden: Premier League Standings
Malmo FF 1:2 ElfsborgElfsborg
20.07 15:00 UTC Sweden: Premier League Standings
Malmo FF 2:2 Kalmar
12.07 10:00 UTC Sweden: Premier League Standings
Malmo FF 4:0 GeteborgGeteborg
04.07 11:00 UTC Sweden: Premier League Standings
Malmo FF 1:0 DegerforsDegerfors
2 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
2.0 Scored
1.0 Conceded
7 Points