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Champions League UEFA. Third qualifying round. First leg
Champions League UEFA. Third qualifying round. First leg
01.08.2026 12:00 UTC
01.08.2026 12:00 UTC
Not started

Champions League UEFA. Third qualifying round. First leg

IFK Goteborg - Degerfors IF

Football
IFK Goteborg
IFK Goteborg
- : -
Not started
Degerfors IF
Degerfors IF
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 IFK Goteborg — 54%

Pure model vs market (1 · IFK Goteborg): model 48% · market 54% Δ −6 pp model estimates below the market

1 · IFK Goteborg53.6%
X · draw24.6%
2 · Degerfors IF21.8%

Model estimate: win IFK Goteborg 53.6%, draw 24.6%, win Degerfors IF 21.8%. Model favourite — IFK Goteborg.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1IFK Goteborg (odds1.72) Score 1:0 confidence 50%
  • • Model backs Geteborg: probability 50% vs 58% on the line (odds 1.72)
  • • no edge over the line (-8 pp) — informational only
  • • Expected score 1:0.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction IFK Goteborg - Degerfors IF August 1, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: IFK Goteborg. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.75 / X 3.80 / 2 4.55

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.4%
1 54.2%
X 25.0%
2 20.8%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Allsvenskan
League table
IFK Goteborg
#1313 ptsGP 143-4-717:33
ARRAY
Degerfors IF
#1410 ptsGP 142-4-812:24
ARRAY
Best price across 13 books
1 1.76 Dafabet
X 3.80 Betfair
2 4.75 10Bet

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
IFK Goteborg
W-D-L 3-2-5 Scored 1.50 Conceded 2.70 xG 1.34 xGA 1.56 Corners 5.4
Degerfors IF
W-D-L 0-4-6 Scored 0.69 Conceded 1.90 xG 1.05 xGA 1.61 Corners 4.1

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
IFK Goteborg
Rating 1461 xG 1.65 Win 53%
Degerfors IF
Rating 1418 xG 0.96 Win 22%

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

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Match center
Start 01.08.2026 12:00 UTC
Market 1 54.2% @ 1.75 / X 25.0% @ 3.80 / 2 20.8% @ 4.55
Match center

IFK Goteborg - Degerfors IF

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
IFK Goteborg 53.9% 53.6% market and model agree
Draw 24.8% 24.6% draw risk
Degerfors IF 21.3% 21.8%
xG - 1.65 : 0.96

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 53.6% / 24.6% / 21.8% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,408 / 1,345 Goteborg / Degerfors
RD 204 / 177 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,000-1,816 / 992-1,698 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 4.42 market consensus · no value · model 21.8%
X 3.73 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.72 market consensus · no value · model 53.6%
Double chance
12 1.22 market consensus · no value · model 75.4%
1X 1.17 market consensus · no value · model 78.2%
X2 1.97 market consensus · no value · model 46.4%
Handicap
2 +0.5 2.04 market consensus · line only
2 0 3.28 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.70 market consensus · line only
1 0 1.30 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.80 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.92 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.00 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.72 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 2.00 50.0%
yes 1.72 58.1%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
12 1.20 83.3% 1.24 80.7%
1x 1.15 87.0% 1.19 84.0%
x2 1.94 51.6% 2.00 50.0%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
2.24 44.6%
X 2.29 43.7%
4.64 21.6%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1.5 2.46 40.7%
Under 1.5 1.44 69.4%
Match center
IFK Goteborg
L W L L W
26.07 10:00 UTC Sweden: Premier League Standings
IFK Goteborg 1:4 SiriusSirius
17.07 15:00 UTC Sweden: Premier League Standings
IFK Goteborg 2:1 Brommapoykarna
12.07 10:00 UTC Sweden: Premier League Standings
IFK Goteborg 0:4 Malme
05.07 10:00 UTC Sweden: Premier League Standings
IFK Goteborg 1:2 AIKAIK
31.05 10:00 UTC Sweden: Premier League Standings
IFK Goteborg 5:4 VesterosVesteros
2 Wins
0 Draws
3 Losses
1.8 Scored
3.0 Conceded
6 Points
Degerfors IF
L L L L D
25.07 11:00 UTC Sweden: Premier League Standings
Degerfors IF 0:1 YurgordenYurgorden
19.07 12:30 UTC Sweden: Premier League Standings
Degerfors IF 0:4 KhammarbyuKhammarbyu
12.07 10:00 UTC Sweden: Premier League Standings
Degerfors IF 0:2 VesterosVesteros
04.07 11:00 UTC Sweden: Premier League Standings
Degerfors IF 0:1 Malme
31.05 10:00 UTC Sweden: Premier League Standings
Degerfors IF 2:2 Brommapoykarna
0 Wins
1 Draws
4 Losses
0.4 Scored
2.0 Conceded
1 Points